In the second installment of my end-of-year review / things to watch out for in 2025, let me share a few things I learnt about the #energytransition that were surprising to me and may be interesting to some of you:
1) #Decarbonizing the grid and electrifying carbon-intensive activities are essential steps, but not sufficient on their own. Yes, technologies like heat pumps, smart thermostats, and EVs are crucial, but they must be part of a broader strategy. Indeed, transitioning to a sustainable, green economy requires a fundamental rethink of how we live, make stuff, and conduct business. Technological solutions alone won't suffice, and in some cases and contexts, alternatives like #biofuels for heavy transportation might be more appropriate.
2) Energy systems will likely become both more decentralized (for energy production) and centralized (for grid management and integration). On the one hand, we do need more people and businesses to produce renewable energy themselves. On the other hand, the greater the number of distributed and intermittent energy sources, the greater the need for centralized management and integration to ensure grid stability. In other words, this dual approach (decentralized AND centralized) is necessary to ensure grid stability and reliability as we integrate more renewable and intermittent energy sources. Probably obvious to most, but the implications (other than for Québec) are interesting to think about.
3) #AI is not the enemy. It is true that artificial intelligence is driving up electricity demand everywhere and may - ultimately - lead to increased overall consumption. However, it is also true that AI has the potential to increase energy efficiency (by helping everyone consume better), significantly reduce peak demand (through optimized energy management) and dramatically increase the efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance interventions (by intervening only at the right place at the right time). Others can decide whether data centers should be considered part of a country's "critical infrastructure"; my point is actually that AI is here to stay and so we should make every effort to use it as a transition accelerator (vs. only see it as an obstacle).
4) Long-term energy and #resource_planning is essential, even through we know for a fact that we'll get it wrong. Indeed, the energy landscape changes quickly and many predictions (e.g., on the ramp-up speed and scale of solar production) made these past few years were way off. Case in point that everyone is talking about: no one predicted that AI would become one of the fastest growing energy consumer a mere 5 years ago. Despite all that, it's become more crucial than ever to think and plan long-term - but to do so probabilistically and think in terms of scenarios rather than deterministically in terms of "a single plan". We need many plans and accept the fact that they will constantly change. That is the task ahead of us.
Image generated by ChatGPT
