Mario Peshev的动态

The entire turbulent macroeconomic shift is dictated by levers pulled by analysts and financial experts in regulated institutions like the Fed. The Fed monitors inflation, CPI, PPI, unemployment rates - the general spending and job market numbers. But are the metrics accurate? Turns out, no. ? Corporations have been grinding to survive for over 2 years, somewhere between pandemic challenges, the Great Resignation, crypto bubbles, hyperinflation, layoffs, to name a few. The interest rates have been kept steady for 6+ months now. Besides inflation, hiring demand is one of the metrics cited to inform market stability. Per a MarketWatch report, "From January to October, the government initially overestimated job growth in nine of the 10 months. Eventually?the employment gains were reduced by an average of 55,000 a month, an unusually large change." ?? June was one of the reported examples with an initial report of 209,000 new jobs, later normalized back to 105,000 open job opportunities. For reference, 100K - 110K additional jobs was the average in 2007, right before the Great Recession. This signal is alerting enough of what's bound to happen if we report 2X the growth and try to normalize to that level before dropping interest rates down. Delays over inflated data could result in tons of additional cuts - and an economic turmoil similar to 2008. ?? And that's far more challenging to recover from.