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Connecting consumer behavior to your newsfeed | Consumer Research GM | Advisor & Angel Investor

Last note on the credit situation....let's talk about 18-39 year olds. And to put it in perspective, DoorDash is the best way to deliver the message....I got jokes today ?? . First, you can see below just how different debt is distributed across this age cohort. With mortgages a significantly smaller portion, and student loans being a much larger one, Auto and Credit are a much larger impact (mostly for 18-29). The problem is that these age cohorts are currently running at ~10% 90-day delinquency on Credit Cards and 5%/3.5% respectively for Auto. Both are at or higher than 2008/2009...just as a benchmark. So why DoorDash? It's all about the consumer composition. Before moving on, this has nothing to do with DoorDash's performance...that company has been doing ALL the right things. Its expansion into retail, and dominance in restaurant delivery post-covid, has been really impressive. No doubt they've won the delivery race. What connects DoorDash to these delinquency rates is the risk exposure of its core consumer. 18-40 year olds makes up roughly 1/3 of the US population....reports put that age group at roughly 50% of the user base. That's households alone, not spend, so imagine what that looks like. That means DoorDash users are 1.6x more likely to be among this cohort going into double digits delinquency rates for credit cards. Sure, you can use a debit card to order, but we have NEVER experienced a situation where card-driven purchasing, via a mobile platform, is working against delinquencies like this. It isn't just DoorDash, its any brand/retailer that drastically over-indexes to this age cohort. Luckily platforms like DoorDash, and almost every online retailer, has some form of buy now pay later ?? . What could happen? This is an example of an air pocket in the market. One is a bump, but the more pockets the more risk for a more intense drop. Further...imagine what happens if this age group has been driving a lot of the consumption growth overall. What does that do to the macro numbers? Some things to think about... This closes out my week of yelling from my virtual front porch....will give you a break, but keep an eye on next Friday's PCE release. #consumerbehavior #retail

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