MIT Election Data and Science Lab的动态

Rumor at one of my children’s college is that they are deciding if they should preemptively cancel classes the day AFTER the election. It may be a rumor, but I bet not. I think, for my election peers, that probably tightens the already growing knot in your stomach. For those of you not in elections, this means they arent proposing this to make voting more accessible or ensure lower traffic around polls on Election Day. They would be closing because they expect trouble during the time when a local election office is re-confirming numbers and working towards certification. If people are storming the streets- there’s really only one destination they will end up at. This particular town has already had angry mobs in the last year, so it is likely not just a rumor. Now, in reality, they probably won’t close- or at least won’t plan to close. The statistic in this link about how many people plan to leave elections after 2024- this is why! When I was put in a very real and very dangerous situation, it was the days after the election. A neighboring county official was essentially stalked by a losing campaign’s officials for months afterward. Absolutely secure the Election Day, but please make sure that safety plans include the days, weeks, and (hopefully not) months after the election. And if you see your local election official out and about- give them a smile, please?

With 9 Days Until Election Day, nearly 44 million early votes cast nationwide Democrats: 42% Republicans: 40% Other/Unknown: 18% Nearly 60 million mail-in and early ballots requested. Democrats: 45% Republicans: 29% Other/Unknown: 26% Democrats maintain a slight edge in both early votes cast and ballot requests, signaling high early engagement. Republicans, meanwhile, have voted early in greater numbers than in 2020, also indicating strong early engagement.

The Progressive Congress Coalition is grappling with challenges as it announces the second postponement of its primary election. Originally slated for December, the primary had already been rescheduled to the 20th of this month.The Progressive Congress Coalition is grappling with challenges as it announces the second postponement of its primary election. Originally slated for December, the primary had already been rescheduled to the 20th of this month.

As promised, some thoughts about working my first election the past three weeks (yes, the period lasts this long!) 1. A lot of people focus on election day, the poll workers, and what they see when they vote. That is entirely reasonable, and having worked a polling location, I can attest to the fact that they do amazing work. What a lot of people don't end up seeing is that, for us at the central location, even more work happens right after those polls close. Processing Election Day results, continuing to tabulate ballots, and every other little bit all happen within the week after election night - sometimes later! 2. Even less people focus on the recount. They require a lot of work to be done over a pretty short period of time to ensure that the count was 100% correct. Maricopa County does an outstanding job of ensuring that it is done right *on election day*, but when state law mandates a recount, we are right there to do it! 3. The phrase "democracy is messy" is only true if you watch the news and get consumed by political controversies. It feels messy when you're looking at the candidates, the polls, the debates, the pundits, etc. The actual process of democracy is actually quite orderly, and every election department across the country takes accuracy and procedure very seriously. We are approaching Election Day, and I hope that when you fill out your ballot, either through the mail or in-person, that you'll take into consideration the vast operation that occurs in counties, big and small, to ensure your vote counts!

20 years ago, if you had told me federal election spending was going to rise by more than $10 billion I would have been skeptical. But, thanks to the Supreme Court’s #CitizensUnited decision that’s exactly where we are — $5.3B in 2000, $16.4B in 2020. Sunday, January 21 marks the 14th anniversary of Citizens United. Learn more about that decision’s ongoing impact: https://lnkd.in/e2tB2bA2 As the #2024elections approach, there is every reason to believe that spending records will be shattered once again, propelled in large part by special interests seeking to drown out the voices of everyday Americans. This is bad for #democracy. At Campaign Legal Center, we’ve been keeping an eye on an ongoing concern that stems from election spending: candidates of both parties are illegally coordinating with the supposedly “independent” groups that support them. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/e__9Cywd As terrible as Citizens United was, the ruling preserved Americans’ right to know who is spending vast sums to influence their votes. Inaction by the Federal Election Commission however has allowed billions to be spent in secret, and it’s a bipartisan problem. #Congress must act!

Always interesting to see how the views of voters ebb and flow. Since we have been engaging with thousands of individuals since before the 2020 election, we have a unique perspective of how individuals are shifting versus comparisons of broad groups. Big shout out to Zoe Beuzelin for taking the lead on this piece. And keep an eye out for updates post-debate. #2024election #Trump #Biden #data

Excerpt: As Election Day arrives, people’s feelings of eagerness and anxiety can intensify. It’s normal to want to know the results, but it’s also important to make sure that when the results are announced, they’re accurate. The Conversation U.S. has covered many aspects of the election, including the mechanics of tallying and reporting the votes. Here are selections from some of those articles:

A political party used to consist of a group of voters with similar values, who were generally aligned around a set of principles and guidelines. That cannot be said of the voters who are registered as Democrats and Republicans today. Now there are voters that identify as Progressives within the Democrat Party and MAGA within the Republican Party. Furthermore, there are more voters who do not belong to either party than those who register as one or the other. Yet we continue to act as if there really are just two parties, giving us presidential candidates that the majority of voters don't want, for good reason. The system is broken. One potential way to fix the problem could be to formally split up the Democrat and Republican into four total parties, each nominating their own presidential, senate and house candidates.

USA election results depends on a minute fraction of the voters in the swing states. In the greatest democratic country in the world, the election results are determined by less than 1% of voters out of the 330 million. Sounds ridiculous! Swing states and a small percentage of voters have a huge influence on the outcome. In any other country Trump would have already lost the elections, but not in the American political system. The previous 4 years of Trump as president would have been enough to make him retire from politics, but not with the American electorate. There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. The 50 states and Washington, DC are allocated 538 electoral-college votes (ECVs). The number of votes granted to each state depends on its representation in the Senate and House of Representatives. Every state has two senators and at least one representative, so even sparsely populated states, such as Montana, are guaranteed three votes. Georgia, which Biden won last time is swinging to the Republican side in this election. That again added to the importance of swing states in this year's election. Hopefully Pennsylvania will stay with Democrats this time. Then North Carolina will be the decider. Very exciting indeed! #usa #elections Kamala Harris for President, 2024 Kanwal Rekhi The New York Times

Halloween week brings more than just frights – it’s the final stretch before Election Day 2024. In our latest blog, we dive deep into where the presidential race, Senate contests, and House control stand in the final days. With close polls and the rise of “ghost voters” (the hidden force that could swing outcomes!), this election is set to keep us all on the edge of our seats until the very end. Read our last pre-election breakdown to see the issues, trends, and surprises shaping the landscape ?? https://lnkd.in/e6ytTvhk #Election2024 #ElectionCountdown #Vote2024 #ElectionAnalysis #Polls #GhostVoters