MIAC - Mortgage Industry Advisory Corporation的动态

In a pivotal shift, the real estate landscape witnesses a surge in short sales as office buildings trade at steep markdowns, indicating a wave of forced sales. Owners, especially recent buyers witnessing eroded equity, are relinquishing properties, a trend underscored by nearly half of all office properties being underwater on their loans. Major U.S. banks are hiking loss provisions, and the CMBS market reveals $5.5 billion in unpaid office loans, forecasting a continuation into 2024. This market transformation, particularly in non-performing areas, signifies a pragmatic approach to salvage capital but also underscores the slower-than-anticipated recovery of the office sector. Distressed assets become prevalent; private equity is poised to capitalize, exemplified by KDM Financial's $350 million fund targeting multifamily bridge loans and distressed properties. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes contribute to an overall potential 40-70 percent devaluation in office property values, bringing a somber but necessary clarity to the sector. ???? #RealEstateShifts #MarketTransformation

A 40% price decline in the US office sector a highly leveraged asset class is a big deal, and not just for the borrower. This is troubling for lenders, too. Nor is it just the office category. The left chart below, from MSCI, shows their price indexes for different property types. You can see how apartment prices fell hard since 2022 right along with office properties.

?? A Sudden Dip in the Office Real Estate Ocean ?? Office building loans have taken a major tumble, with a staggering 68% YoY decrease and a 32% QoQ decline. The "Descent of the Office Space" sequel is in full swing! But fear not, not all sectors are sinking. ?? ?? Will This Ball Bounce Back? ?? Despite the current predicament, our optimistic Delboys are predicting a "cushty" future for the office real estate market. Will the phoenix rise from the tower of shredded paperwork? Only time will tell! ?? ?? Kettle's On: Private Lenders and Investors Wait it Out ?? Our teacup-holding private lenders and investors are enjoying the drama and patiently waiting for the grand comeback. So, here's the question: Are you ready to ride the wave and invest in the future of the office real estate market? ?? #OfficeRealEstate #MarketTrends #RealEstateInvesting #DiveAndPromise #ReboundPotential #blog https://lnkd.in/gr7PGaBw

ARTICLE ABOUT NEW OFFICE REIT: The new company is seeking to raise $1 billion through a lead investor and a blind pool IPO to provide office owners and investors with financing solutions. The REIT will follow a low-risk strategy to take advantage of the significant capital void for office debt by originating first mortgages, mezzanine debt and preferred equity. The company also will make strategic investments in distressed office debt and properties at attractive discounts, capitalizing on market dislocations by investing across the country’s top 25 metropolitan statistical areas.

Uncover the profound impact of interest rates on the office market and the financial health of landlords. Gain insights into the challenges faced by landlords in refinancing loans, tenant improvements, and property management. Learn how companies can strategically navigate these uncertainties, engage proper representation, and creatively leverage opportunities to minimize occupancy costs. Read the full article to gain a deep understanding of the forces shaping Atlanta's office sector in 2024. #AtlantaOfficeMarket #WorkplaceTrends #CommercialRealEstate

Commercial real estate is a hot topic as the debate around back-to-office trends continues. An exciting new dataset has just come to market, offering unique insights on this and other relevant topics. #CommercialRealEstate #BackToOffice #Insights

The post-pandemic real estate market continues to show intriguing trends -- one being a notable shift in lease terms for relocations vs. renewals. https://lnkd.in/dvHqJ_kx #Office #AVANTbyAY #AYdata #AYdifference

?? The Wall Street Journal Reports That America’s Office Fire Sale Has Barely Begun ?? ?? Despite concerns, distressed office sales remain low as of 2023, with only 3.5% of deals involving a forced seller. ?? A robust economy and continued rent payments delay distress, but pressure mounts as leases expire and tenants reduce space by 30-40%. ?? Lenders are cautious, preferring to extend loans rather than force sales into a weak market. ?? Only a quarter of $35.8 billion office loans due last year were paid off, with many extended or sent to special servicers. ?? Complex loan structures delay foreclosures or sales, with lenders struggling to agree on action. ?? Despite challenges, distressed-debt investors like Reven Capital aim to seize opportunities in a market downturn. ?? CBRE predicts a $72.7 billion refinancing shortfall for U.S. office landlords by 2025. ?? Some hold out for lower interest rates or hope for a rebound in office demand, delaying sales. ?? Key Takeaway: Offices may present a significant buying opportunity in the future, but distressed sales are slower to materialize than expected. ???? https://lnkd.in/gsKBUYRS

It’s been a wild few years for commercial real estate (CRE). So what’s next? US #CRE continues to face several challenges, including muted transaction volume, liquidity constraints for some property owners seeking to refinance debt, and a gradual return to office. However, we believe negative headlines mask improvements in fundamentals in many parts of the private #realestate market. For example, in direct real estate we expect transaction volumes to rise to USD 900bn in 2024, up from USD 600bn in 2023. Additionally, there is still substantial dry powder on the sidelines earmarked for CRE investments. We estimate that private equity alone is sitting on more than USD 425bn of unlevered dry powder, with much of this oriented toward distressed, opportunistic, and real estate debt strategies. When this capital is finally deployed, it could represent a bottoming in CRE values. We do still believe investors should approach the CRE market with caution and remain diversified. But we also see opportunities in this space. For example, while the US #office segment faces challenges, other segments like multifamily housing and industrial properties may offer stable returns and spread out some idiosyncratic risks from an uneven office recovery. And even within office, negative sentiment on the sector overlooks that there are still high-quality assets that can deliver appealing perspective returns. For example, modern offices in good locations with robust sustainability credentials are arguably a different market to the outdated office assets in less favorable areas. Vacancy rates in the first category are far lower and may even see supply shortages in some cases given low levels of construction starts and continued cost pressures. Read more in our full report below.

We've continued to talk about the bifurcation in the US #cremarket, the flight to quality, amenity-rich, transit-oriented office assets, but I've wonder for years what this all would mean for the class B and C assets. Peter Grant talks about defaults and distress building to near historic levels because of high interest rates and slow return of workers to office buildings in his piece below in today's The Wall Street Journal. He reports that lenders are coming to the realization that these obsolete office buildings won't recover their former value, even when interest rates decline. Worth the read! https://lnkd.in/eP4CDHYy