Our latest note begins with an update of our views on sovereign debt. We then set out five potential catalysts for European equities and consider how Trump might actually be bullish for the continent. — Sovereign debt pressures are likely to remain a key theme in markets in the coming years, including in parts of Europe — But despite this and the perceived threat of Trump, we see tactical reasons for optimism for Europe — We expect European equities to outperform the US in 2025 Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/evS9rEti — Capital at risk. For professional clients in the UK only —
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???????????? ???????????? ???????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? $?????? ???????????????? ???? ????????-??????, ?????? ?????????????? The International Monetary Fund, for instance, has warned that global public debt has reached an alarming proportion to the point that it will hit $100 trillion at the end of 2024. Read More: https://shorturl.at/7zYGT #GlobalDebtCrisis #IMFReport #PublicDebt2024 #FiscalResponsibility #EconomicChallenges #DebtManagement #GlobalEconomy
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Sovereign Debt Defaults (Source= Visual Capitalist) From 1800 to 2010, there have been around 250 instances of sovereign debt defaults or restructurings across the globe. With 210 years in that span, this averages to about 1.2 defaults per year. This figure highlights that while sovereign defaults aren’t everyday occurrences, they are far from rare. Particularly in today’s economic environment, it's crucial to monitor countries with sovereign debt ratings in the 'C' range. This area is a strong indicator of potential defaults and should be watched closely by investors and policymakers alike. #SovereignDebt #Finance #Economics #InvestmentRisk #GlobalEconomy #DebtCrisis
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Associate Professor of Econometrics and Applied Statistics, reviewer and reviewer for several influential scientific journals {Web of Science}
For decades, governments have been tapping into global sovereign debt markets to smooth ups and downs in revenue with the hope that it would help spur investment. But what happens when government borrowing fails to deliver, and the citizens are left paying the bill? Mark Aguiar says emerging market and developing economies are especially vulnerable to interest rate spikes when debt levels are high. Aguiar is the Director of the International Economics Section at Princeton University, and his research suggests that sovereign borrowing to stabilize the economy may have the opposite effect. Read the article in Finance & Development https://lnkd.in/dRF8uYWg
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Good review of the pressing need to address the credit rating issue when considering the global sovereign debt picture from The Economic Times: https://lnkd.in/eASTtM4D The Credit Rating Research Initiative #creditratings #debt
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I always “believed” that savvy private investors in sovereign debt always charge and collect a level of interest to accommodate their perceived risks of not getting their expected ROI. It seems that even when wrong, some are able to still be rewarded. Given the tidal wave of debt service stress many nations are about to be hit with, I wonder if “GDP bonds” will become the next “cure” for developing economies? https://lnkd.in/gCewM2wt
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Opening Remarks by Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura at the Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt Conference - what importance does US have in global public debt levels? What are the implications for emerging economies? https://lnkd.in/dDAjnyiE
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Decent review here of the recent Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable developments regarding credit rating agencies and what can be done... I am happy to let the lack of citation for my terming of the problem as the "credit rating impasse" slide on this one occasion ?? Don't forget my book on the impasse is entirely free to read!! https://lnkd.in/e4Nx6pWZ
Good review of the pressing need to address the credit rating issue when considering the global sovereign debt picture from The Economic Times: https://lnkd.in/eASTtM4D The Credit Rating Research Initiative #creditratings #debt
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The global economy faces mounting risks from soaring government debt levels, with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) cautioning that an impending debt glut could disrupt financial markets in 2025. Claudio Borio, the BIS’s head of monetary and economic research, highlighted the potential for destabilizing bond market reactions that might spill over into other asset classes, urging swift policy adjustments to mitigate the risks. https://bit.ly/3Vu7P3K
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Explore the latest analysis made in collaboration with Andrea Consiglio, Giovanni Pagliardi, and Stavros A. Zenios on the importance of incorporating political risk into sovereign debt sustainability. Political risk is a critical factor in assessing sovereign debt sustainability. Incorporating it ensures a more comprehensive understanding of economic resilience in an uncertain world. Check out at: https://lnkd.in/dwk3_c-M
