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We see upside #inflation risks from a #Trump victory given that his policies could result in both #supply and #demand shocks to the economy as he looks to introduce fresh #tariffs, deport irregular immigrants and enact #tax cuts. This would pose a significant challenge for the #Fed, which could be forced to take a more hawkish path at the risk of attracting criticism by Trump. This means that the path of monetary policy in 2025 remains uncertain. Read the full analysis here as we highlight three alternative scenarios for interest rates: https://ow.ly/P1mE50SP8Mq #ConnectedThinking #USElection #Trumpflation

Decision days: the next vote is the Fed’s With the U.S. #election behind us, it’s important for investors to focus on what a Republican-led administration might mean for the global #economy and financial #markets. In the U.S., we anticipate an economic agenda focused on increased tariffs, lower taxes and deregulation. As of this writing, full enactment of policies in support of this agenda could still hinge on which party secures control of the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has largely achieved its soft landing goals: continued resilient economic growth, moderating inflation and a healthy job market. Against the current backdrop and ahead of the transition of power, we think the Fed’s decision tomorrow will be to cut rates for the second time this year, but by only 25 basis points (bps) instead of 50 bps. This would lower the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. I had the opportunity to discuss the U.S. election and monetary policy going forward, as well as the potential impact of tax cuts and tariffs, on today’s edition of Bloomberg The Pulse. Special thanks to host Francine Lacqua for inviting me to discuss these critical topics. #Litrendingtopics

US heads for Presidential elections tonight. Expected to be extremely close as the chart shows. Some background first: the winner of this election will inherit an economy that’s humming, powered by American consumers who continue to spend. Both candidates will continue fiscal spending (one more than the other), so the economy should still keep humming, but their differing views on taxes & tariffs and who controls the US Congress, will decide which sectors benefit more than others from government policies. In a Trump Presidency: 1. Tax cuts, combined with high tariffs, leading to a pro-growth, pro-inflation policy stance, leading to 2. High bond yields, higher for longer rates, more volatile equity markets due to higher inflation 3. Positive on Financials (lower regulations) and Energy (more drilling of oil) 4. Negative on retail due to higher tariffs pushing costs up In a Harris Presidency: 1. ?Tax breaks to the middle class but increased taxation on corporate & wealthy. 2. Inflation remains under control, paving the way for rate cuts largely as planned 3. Soft landing of the economy positive for broader equities but especially for Growth/technology #USelections #Trump #Harris #Globalinvesting #Globalmarkets

: Trumps Election Sparks Market Reaction Raises Interest Rates #cryptonews - TD Securities recently said that after Trump’s election win, the market expected a combination of tax cuts and tariffs to push up the Federal Reserve’s neutral interest rate. They revised their forecasts for the Fed, predicting that rising inflation will lead to a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. The new outlook suggests the […] https://lnkd.in/gUn74tVA

Vote floats the market’s boat Last week #markets cheered a decisive end to the nagging political uncertainty that had prevailed in the weeks and months leading up to the U.S. #election. The S&P 500 hit its 49th record high close of the year on Wednesday but tempered its rally as the week wore on. The Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee also cast a ballot last week, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), but that outcome was a foregone conclusion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell asserted that there was no “pre-set” pace for future rate reductions and that the election results would have no impact on monetary policy. But with the prospect of higher tariffs and lower income taxes under a Republican-led federal government, there are potential implications for #inflation, fiscal deficits and a stronger U.S. dollar, all of which could eventually have a bearing on the trajectory of Fed rate moves going forward. For more on our economic views, subscribe to my weekly market commentary on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/g_QSbHBb #LITrendingtopics

The BOE Monetary Policy Committee that decide on base rate meet this Thursday. Market predictions are for the MPC to retain its stance at its next meeting on June 20 and maintain rates at 5.25%. Whilst there has been some positive economic trends it is thought to not be enough to warrant a rate reduction especially with the uncertainty brought on by the general election. Will there be a rate cut or will the rate stay at 5.25% until the next committee meeting?

The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the second time, this time by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, according to a press release issued on Thursday. This move comes just a day after Donald Trump's election as president, sparking investor concerns over a potentially less predictable path for monetary easing due to the anticipated rise in inflation as Trump plans to introduce U.S. tariffs and extend tax cuts. Uncertainty ahead, says Powell: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that he does not foresee any immediate impact from the election on monetary policy. However, he emphasized that the future remains uncertain. "We do not know the timing or specifics of any policy changes," Powell remarked. "Therefore, we cannot predict the effects on the economy, particularly regarding their potential influence on our primary objectives: maximum employment and price stability." During a press conference, Powell indicated that a pause in policy adjustments could be possible, without ruling anything out, while affirming the commitment to further rate reductions in the future, as reported by Reuters. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for December 17-18. #US #Economy #Interest #USD

See below for the latest highlights from the St. James’s Place press office. ?? Ahead of the US election Justin Onuekwusi, CFA shared his thoughts with The Times on the impact blanket tariffs could have on the global economy. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/e-z434N5 ? On the day of the election the team shared their analysis on what the result meant for markets securing more than 30 pieces of coverage across national and trade media. Read Hetal Mehta's thoughts on the impact of a Trump presidency on inflation in The Daily Telegraph: https://lnkd.in/en6F2udA ?? Post the Bank of England announcing it would cut interest rates Hetal Mehta discussed with Reuters what Trump tariffs could mean for future rate cuts. Read the piece here: https://lnkd.in/e9XsRDT7 ?? Claire Trott discussed with the The Daily Telegraph the impact of pensions becoming subject to inheritance tax in 2027. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/eQuHvQHw ?? Justin Onuekwusi, CFA was named one of the top 20 most influential in wealth management by Financial News. Read about it here: https://lnkd.in/ejbxbWyA