John Toohig的动态

The Fed and future hikes. The jobs number last week was strong. If you aren't following Nick Timiraos from the WSJ, you're missing the guy who "leaked" the first aggressive hike by the Fed earlier this year. He was on CNBC the other day and made the following analogy. He likened the Fed to a speeding car on the highway, preparing for the off ramp. The 50bps hike coming in December is the Fed putting on it's blinker. If they keep speeding along at 75bps they might miss the off ramp. The slow deceleration from 75bps, to 50bps will eventually work down to 0. I thought that was a good summation. In this article, he cautions we might be due for a 50bps hike in December and another 50bps hike in Feb. I believe many of our clients refuse to think rates will remain higher for longer and are expecting the pivot sooner rather than later. "Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise their benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point at their meeting next week, but elevated wage pressures could lead them to continue lifting it to higher levels than investors currently expect" "Policy makers expect price pressures to ease meaningfully next year, but brisk wage growth or higher inflation in labor-intensive service sectors of the economy could lead more of them to support raising their benchmark rate next year above the 5% currently anticipated by investors" "Signs of continued strong price pressures could lead more of them to consider raising rates by 0.5 point at consecutive meetings this month and in February" "Officials could signal a slightly more aggressive rate outlook in their new quarterly economic projections to be released after the coming meeting. Those could show that policy makers expect to keep raising rates in at least quarter-point increments until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled" "Most officials in September penciled in rates rising to between 4.5% and 5% next year. That landing zone could rise to between 4.75% and 5.25% in the new projections" #fed #rates #economy #jobs