Jean Boissinot的动态

Digesting the latest sound bites from COP28 UAE after the “phasing out” language has been dropped [my personal take]. The current political declaration is a typical diplomatic compromise: it pleases no one but allows everyone some face saving. But there is more into it than is being reported - and less also. On the “plus” side: The “phasing out” language is replaced by a call to reduce fossil fuel production and consumption: “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050.” The reduction in production is “phasing out” (or “phasing down”?) in any other name. The new emphasis on reducing consumption is a big step toward net zero as CO2 emissions are a byproduct of fossil fuel consumption more than production and a reduction in the supply of fossil fuels that would not be driven by a reduction in the demand of fossil fuel is just outright crazy. The language on “net zero by, before or around 2050” is falling short of securing a “well below 2C” outcome but is also a big step forward. Beyond this totemic debate which has found a solution (perhaps the only possible solution…), the declaration make some progress, in particular: calling for rapidly ramping up renewable energy and low emission energy technologies (including nuclear, hydrogen, storage, capture and sequestration), phasing out fossil fuels subsidies (we are speaking trillions of dollars a year), addressing non CO2 GHG (again, a meaningful progress, esp. on methane). On the “minus” side: The language is clearly falling short of securing a “well below 2C, if possible 1.5C” although it is reaffirming the 1.5C goal and extensively citing the IPCC AR6 (e.g. approach to mitigation are only listed as options to be considered). As I understand it, there is still nothing on the NQCG (the “new quantified collective goal” on climate finance which is expected to take over the USD 100bn commitment after 2025). While the declaration take stock of gaps in NDCs’ ambition and implementation, the commitment to resubmit more ambitious NDC as soon as 2024 or 2025 does not seem to go beyond what is implied by the Paris Agreement. And regarding this last point, the latest report by Climate Action Tracker (https://lnkd.in/gzge4BH8) rightly points out that while we have been making some progress with regards to NDC and longer term commitments since Paris (see below ??): current policies leaves us at +2.7C and the best case (every commitment and pledge is followed through) brings us to +1.8C yet limited (or no) progress has been made since COP26 - UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. The worst outcome would be for ambition to stall and for implementation to fall short. Thanks The Guardian for the nice and timely reporting: https://lnkd.in/gP7bWcw3 (those who can access the Financial Times may want to check also: https://on.ft.com/3t98DQz) and the draft is here: https://lnkd.in/gqGEypfm