Integris Ventures的动态

*New report: November Data Spotlight - U.S. Rates Trading: 'Jobs, Election Bookend U.S. Treasury Market Volatility and Volume', by Kevin McPartland* October 31, 2024 was the most active day in U.S. Treasury market history, with $1.54 trillion of volume traded. While month-end volume spikes are nothing new, the activity capped off a month of volatility, catalyzed by a stronger than expected jobs report on October 4, leading the MOVE Index to jump 24% in a single day. https://lnkd.in/eG5qjtXC

The rate rollercoaster continues - this time with the 10-year Treasury yield moving back up above 4%... As we expected, the #market has corrected its previously dovish expectations. The total amount of cuts priced in this cycle has declined from ~220bps at one point to just 150bps today. We maintain a short-term range of 3.5% to 4.0% on the 10-year #yield. We are cognizant of the Treasury supply entering the market next week, which could put some more upward pressure on yields. However, with the #economy still set to cool, we believe investors that have elevated cash levels should consider extending duration at or near current levels. Read more below in the latest report from Leslie Falconio and John Murtagh from our CIO Fixed Income team.

The possibility of worse-than-expected inflation and a delay of the first Fed rate cut have led many investors to seek the safety of cash. At the same time, interest rates on cash are at their highest levels in decades, making it appear that there are attractive “risk-free” returns. In this article, we discuss why holding too much cash can be problematic and what role cash should play in investor portfolios today. https://hubs.ly/Q02wkbp40

■ Using a yield-to-earnings comparison (equity risk premium, or ERP), U.S. stocks are less attractively priced vis-à-vis #bonds than at any point since the 1990s. ■ History suggests #investors be patient and wait for a more attractive entry point ■ Analysts are currently expecting #earnings to grow by 11.8% in 2024. ■ Only time will tell whether this will be sufficient to grow into high #valuations, but guidance will be key. The full Q1 2024 Market Outlook can be found at:? https://lnkd.in/gjEzPK2x #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #BearMarket #EconomicOutlook2024 #balancingact #assetallocation Michael Schwartz, CFP?, AEP?, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA?, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP?, Scott Kephart, CRPC?, CLTC?, Chase Wickenheiser, William "Billy" Bowden Source: Bloomberg

The possibility of worse-than-expected inflation and a delay of the first Fed rate cut have led many investors to seek the safety of cash. At the same time, interest rates on cash are at their highest levels in decades, making it appear that there are attractive “risk-free” returns. In this article, we discuss why holding too much cash can be problematic and what role cash should play in investor portfolios today. https://hubs.ly/Q02wkb3v0

The possibility of worse-than-expected inflation and a delay of the first Fed rate cut have led many investors to seek the safety of cash. At the same time, interest rates on cash are at their highest levels in decades, making it appear that there are attractive “risk-free” returns. In this article, we discuss why holding too much cash can be problematic and what role cash should play in investor portfolios today. https://hubs.ly/Q02wk3z50

Think U.S. Treasury yields don’t impact you? They could decide the cost of your next coffee – here’s why. ?? U.S. Treasury yields have been volatile, reacting to inflation and labor market trends. Despite rate hikes to curb inflation, strong employment persists, suggesting future tightening. ?? Yield Curve Movements & Signals The yield curve inversion on October 10, 2024, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.11% and the 30-year yield slightly lower, indicates concerns about long-term economic growth. This inversion reflects investors’ expectations of prolonged high-interest rates. ?? Sectoral Implications Higher Treasury yields affect sectors differently: ? Financial Services: Benefit from increased borrowing rates. ? Real Estate & Utilities: Profitability squeezed due to rising borrowing costs. ? Technology & Growth Sectors: Discount rates reduce present value of earnings, potentially driving portfolio rebalancing. ?? Investment Strategies Consider these strategies: ? Financial Services: Benefit from increased borrowing rates. ? Real Estate & Utilities: Profitability squeezed due to rising borrowing costs. ? Technology & Growth Sectors: Discount rates reduce present value of earnings, potentially driving portfolio rebalancing. For those studying wealth management or actively managing portfolios, here are some insights: - Fixed-income securities, with a 10-year yield of 4.11%, offer attractive risk-free returns, prompting a shift from equities. - A prudent approach in uncertain times is the barbell bond strategy, combining long-term and short-term bonds to balance yield and liquidity. - Investors are diversifying into non-correlated assets like commodities and REITs to hedge against inflation and market volatility due to recession risks tied to the inverted yield curve. Takeaway: Yield movements are crucial economic indicators that influence daily costs and long-term financial decisions. In today’s complex environment with high inflation and uncertain Fed policies, understanding the yield curve is essential for informed investment choices and risk management. #Macroeconomics #TreasuryYields #WealthManagement #InvestmentStrategy #FinanceTrends

Consumers are still spending and corporate profits are ticking back up; the rolling recessions that we’ve seen in some sectors have seemingly come to an end. Read our analysis of these credit cycle indicators and more: https://lnkd.in/eppAwYbq #CreditCycle #Economy #Consumers #Corporates

Given the increasing level of government debt and the increasing cost of interest on that deficit…..it may be prudent to own a ladder of individual fixed income securities that have finite maturities.

Rising 10 year treasury yields increases choppiness in markets. Despite a modest increase in yields today, the US markets, led by entrepreneurial companies (+1%), are closing the week on a positive note.