Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies的动态

Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree. The former president often implies that deportations will bring down housing costs. Reality is more complicated. By Jeanna SmialekLydia DePillis and Natasha Rodriguez Oct. 11, 2024 Updated 2:12 p.m. ET Former President Donald J. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, regularly blame America’s housing affordability crisis on a recent surge in immigration. They point to their plans for mass deportations of undocumented workers as part of the solution. But most economists do not believe that immigrants have been a major driver of the recent run-up in housing prices. Rents and home costs started to surge in 2020 and 2021, before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023. And while immigrants could have kept housing demand elevated in some markets, past studies suggest that they are a small part of the overall story. Even the economist whose paper Mr. Vance had cited as evidence said in an interview that she thought that immigration’s recent impact on housing costs had been minuscule. In fact, a number of economists and housing industry experts said that one of the solutions Mr. Trump was proposing — large-scale deportations — could actually backfire and make the housing crisis worse. That’s because immigrants do not simply add to the demand for housing: They are an important part of the work force that supplies it. Foreign-born workers make up a quarter of the construction labor force, and they are especially concentrated in trades like plastering, hanging drywall and roofing. Across many booming housing markets, particularly in the South, the recent flow of migrants has helped residential builders meet demand for both skilled trades and relatively unskilled laborers, industry groups say and job market data suggest. “In the long run, immigrants are the solution to the housing crisis,” said Exequiel Hernandez, an associate professor who studies immigration at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. “Without immigrants, you can’t increase the supply of housing.” Not just a demand story Take Adriany Colina, a 27-year-old mother of three from Venezuela. Ms. Colina has been living in shelters since she arrived in the United States last October. That means she is not putting much pressure on the housing market in Denver, where she resides. https://lnkd.in/ghiey64Z

Tuesday's #VPDebate prompted me to consider two important questions: 1. Are undocumented immigrants driving up housing costs? 2. What are the primary drivers of rising housing costs? First, to be clear, currently, there is NO research directly examining the relationship between undocumented immigrants and housing prices. Despite a candidate referencing Federal Reserve research, claiming that #undocumentedimmigrants are contributing to rising housing costs. Even though some research shows an influx of immigrants can increase housing costs, it's not by a large degree (https://lnkd.in/ghqKkFw2) Undocumented immigrants are estimated to account for?25-27% of the total immigrant population?(https://lnkd.in/gUQYM7iK). Due to the challenges they face in accessing both rental and owner-occupied housing, they are more likely to live in shared or "doubled-up" households with individuals who have legal status. According to Pew Research Center, approximately 70% of undocumented immigrants live in mixed-status households (where at least one person has legal status). These dynamics suggest that the direct impact of undocumented immigrants on housing costs is likely minimal. Second, "housing supply" is THE significant driver of housing costs, as new construction dropped substantially following the Great Recession of 2008. Since 2012, home prices have been steadily rising, with a marked acceleration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2020 and 2021, when interest rates were historically low, supply chain disruptions that further delayed new housing construction, resulted in home prices and rents increasing at record levels (15-18%). However, as interest rates have risen in the past two years and new housing supply, albeit slowly, has started to increase, the rate of growth in both home and rent prices has slowed. Check out our Sept. 2024 #HFChartbook (https://lnkd.in/giajstgk) for even more evidence-based information on housing supply and costs. #homeownership #immigrants #housing

"Immigrants are not the problem – governments are. They failed to plan. It is not really higher targets for permanent immigrants that are driving the growth, either, but an essentially unplanned expansion of temporary residents, who now number 2.2 million. Blame governments. So it’s distressing to see an opposition politician pledging to fix the problem – Mr. Poilievre – miss this key point. The Conservative Leader’s video included valid points about the slow growth of Canada’s?housing?stock. Accelerating building is the real medium- and long-term solution. However, that process will take years. Mr. Poilievre makes an argument for why deficits and monetary policy caused inflation but that is largely part of another debate. Canada’s housing-price spike isn’t just general?inflation. Inflation lifted prices about 29 per cent of the last 10 years, according to Statistics Canada, but Prof. Moffatt noted that in Ontario, home prices went up by 120 per cent – in Tillsonburg, 228 per cent. That’s not ordinary inflation. Something else is happening with supply and demand."

"Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree. The former president often implies that deportations will bring down housing costs. Reality is more complicated." https://lnkd.in/e3raJ25n "Former President Donald J. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance,?regularly blame?America’s housing affordability crisis on a recent surge in immigration. They point to their plans for mass deportations of undocumented workers?as part?of the solution. But most economists do not believe that immigrants have been a major driver of the recent run-up in housing prices.?Rents?and?home costs?started to surge in?2020?and 2021, before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023. And while immigrants could have kept housing demand elevated in some markets, past studies suggest that they are a small part of the overall story. Even the economist whose paper Mr. Vance had cited as evidence said in an interview that she thought that immigration’s recent impact on housing costs had been minuscule. In fact, a number of economists and housing industry experts said that one of the solutions Mr. Trump?was proposing?— large-scale deportations — could actually backfire and make the housing crisis worse. That’s because immigrants do not simply add to the demand for housing: They are an important part of the work force that supplies it. Foreign-born workers make up a quarter of the construction labor force, and they are?especially?concentrated in trades like plastering, hanging drywall and roofing. Across many booming housing markets, particularly in the South, the recent flow of migrants has helped residential builders meet demand for both skilled trades and relatively unskilled laborers,?industry groups?say and job market data suggest. “In the long run, immigrants are the solution to the housing crisis,” said Exequiel Hernandez, an associate professor who studies immigration at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. “Without immigrants, you can’t increase the supply of housing.”"

In our Frontpage column in the Financial Post today, we expose the ugly side of housing affordability that lead to reactionary nationalism in Canada. Housing affordability challenges have promoted reactionary nationalism in Canada, with the popular discourse and resulting policy responses scapegoating non-residents by holding them responsible for home prices and rents rising faster than median household incomes in urban centres. This housing-driven nationalism has also motivated accusations of money laundering, additional transaction taxes, outright bans on non-residents’ residential purchases and a large increase in hate crimes against racial minorities in parts of the country. The text is available from Yahoo Finance at the following URL: https://lnkd.in/ghdngDwa.

Today's Real Estate Lesson: The Perils of Ignoring Basic Math Ah, supply and demand – the timeless duo ruling every market. Flood one side, and watch the equilibrium do the cha-cha. But here's a plot twist: When the housing supply is already tight for Canadians, why not toss in unfettered immigration for good measure? Spoiler alert: It doesn't end well. Perhaps some drama teachers missed the memo on this not-so-secret formula. How does this impact your real estate portfolio and decision making process? Connect with me to discuss in private. #realestate #realestatebroker #immobilier #courtierimmobiliermontreal #courtierimmobilier #montrealrealestatebroker #bhhsquebec #realestateinvesting #investissementimmobilier #maison #premieracheteur #firsttimebuyer #fsbo #luxuryrealestate #montreal https://lnkd.in/eb9qumqw

Canada is slashing the number of immigrants it welcomes into the country and experts believe it could significantly reduce demand in the country’s housing market over the coming years.? In October, the government announced plans to reduce the projected number of new permanent residents and non-permanent residents by?more than 900,000 over two years—resulting in a 0.4 per cent decrease in population by 2026, with??“modest” growth resuming in 2027.? Robert Hogue, chief assistant economist for RBC, notes that this substantial reduction will help to narrow Canada’s housing gap, however, while the change may alleviate some immediate demand pressures, it will not resolve the long-standing affordability crisis. Hogue?explains?that reducing the influx of non-permanent residents will slow household formation—a key driver of housing demand. His forecast suggests nearly 400,000 fewer households—a 46 per cent drop—will be formed over the next three years compared to previous projections.? “Canada will now get a golden opportunity to reduce the housing shortage…” Hogue says, provided the current pace of homebuilding can be maintained or, ideally, increased.

"In BC’s seven census metropolitan areas, 30,621 housing units were completed in 2023, the report notes, which was “a meagre” one per cent increase over 2022. In other words, there was one new housing unit built for every five new arrivals in BC" https://lnkd.in/gGxSKyPn VRBA wrote about the housing supply shortage vs population growth 5 years ago. Govt just added more taxes, fees and building regulations. https://lnkd.in/e5Y-whr Let the market work and save taxpayers billions https://lnkd.in/ge3q2tX8