Global Markets Investor的动态

??IS INFLATION IN THE US RE-SURGING?? The core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred inflation metric - is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and by 2.8% year-over-year in October. That would be the largest surge since April after 3 consecutive months of 2.7% increases.

Mounting Inflation Worries (May 29, 17:15 UTC+8) Consumer confidence index rose unexpectedly to 102.0 in May (versus 97.5 in April), sending worrying signals over inflation as market anticipate cooling economic data and easing restrictive measures. US 10-Y treasury responded with weekly highest 4.574% yield and chances for rate cut turn slimmer. The Fed may be in line for rate hikes if inflation continues to worsen. Friday's PCE data will likely confirm the hawkish rate path.

I guess this might indicate the rightful death of MMT - Modern Monetary Theory. From Investopedia Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a?heterodox?macroeconomic supposition that asserts that monetarily sovereign countries (such as the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Canada) which spend, tax, and borrow in a?fiat currency?that they fully control, are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending

??IS THE US INFLATION RE-ACCELERATING?? The Fed's favorite inflation metric core PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, below the expected 2.9%. Headline PCE jumped to +2.4% year-over-year from +2.3%, a 7-month high and below expectations of 2.3%. Interesting months ahead.

Shocking stat of the day: Inflation has not fallen in a single month since January 2021, according to Zerohedge. This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years. We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months. Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months. Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation. But don't worry, the labor market is strong. (TKL)

Shocking stat of the day: Inflation has not fallen in a single month since January 2021, according to Zerohedge. This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years. We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months. Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months. Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation. @kobeissiletter

This morning, US inflation data showed that Core PCE inflation JUMPED to 2.8% in October. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, now up from a low of 2.6% in July. The clear elephant in the room is that inflation has leveled off ABOVE the Fed's 2.0% target.

Shocking stat of the day: Inflation has not fallen in a single month since January 2021, according to Zerohedge. This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years. We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months. Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months. Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation.

??'???????????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ????????????????????! All eyes are on US inflation - will it accelerate again? Has the US Fed made a mistake? And, and, and . . . Meanwhile, there are already so many “inflation figures” which an investor should look at, but actually there are primarily 4 of them, whereby the US Federal Reserve has a preferred figure - PCE aka Personal Consumption Expenditures. It is a little bit like "D'Artagnan and the Three Musketeers" - with PCE in the role of D'Artagnan and Core PCE, CPI and Core CPI in the roles of Athos, Porthos and Aramis. The good news first, the nowcasting figures do not yet show a rebound in inflation figures, but we are not at the desired 2% target of the US Fed. ? PCE Now - 2.59 ?? Core PCE Now - 2.87 ?? CPI Now - 2.86 ?? Core CPI Now - 3.28 The situation is not yet worrying, but investors' nerves are likely to remain extremely tense in the coming weeks, as the inauguration on January 20 will add another factor of uncertainty. As long as we are mostly in the 2% to 3% band, investors should survive this phase unscathed. What do you think about the recent inflation development in the US? Please give us your input in the comments below. BTW - the central banks' 2% inflation target has not really been scientifically substantiated - it could also be 1.5%, 2.5% or 3%! #copernicus #lookingbeyond #thomaswille