“It’s natural to be drawn to the inside view. It’s usually concrete and filled with engaging detail we can use to craft a story about what’s going on. The outside view is typically abstract, bare, and doesn’t lend itself so readily to storytelling. So even smart, accomplished people routinely fail to consider the outside view. ... Superforecasters don’t make that mistake.”? - Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.? https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U? #TetlockTuesday?#Superforecasting?#GoodJudgment
