Gibson Capital的动态

The Fed’s fight against inflation is not over yet: Supercore inflation rose by 4.3% in September and has been above 3.0% for over 3 years now. Supercore inflation is a key metric watched by the Fed, also known as core services less housing inflation. Supercore inflation is now rebounding after materially falling in the first half of 2023. At the same time, core CPI inflation rose to 3.3% marking the first increase since March 2023. All while the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September.

US Inflation Rising Again ... Will we see a repeat of the 1970s with the Fed easing policy too quickly, triggering a rise in inflation in 2025? Recent inflation readings show signs that the decline in inflation has stalled, and there is a risk of reacceleration, see charts below. Fed and market-implied measures of inflation are all above the Fed’s 2% target and not showing signs of moving down toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Short-run and long-run inflation expectations are also moving higher. The recent uptrend, combined with strong economic momentum, is pointing towards a rebound in inflation in 2025 and not a softening to justify Fed cuts. The probability is rising that the Fed may have to raise interest rates in 2025 (Apollo, Torsten Sl?k)

??IS INFLATION IN THE US RE-SURGING?? The core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred inflation metric - is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and by 2.8% year-over-year in October. That would be the largest surge since April after 3 consecutive months of 2.7% increases.

??IS INFLATION IN THE US RE-SURGING?? The core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred inflation metric - is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and by 2.8% year-over-year in October. That would be the largest surge since April after 3 consecutive months of 2.7% increases.

This morning, US inflation data showed that Core PCE inflation JUMPED to 2.8% in October. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, now up from a low of 2.6% in July. The clear elephant in the room is that inflation has leveled off ABOVE the Fed's 2.0% target.

Inflation was hotter than expected in March, continuing a trend we’ve seen in recent months, as rising energy and shelter costs added to pricing pressure. While annual inflation still remains well below the peaks seen in 2022, these stubbornly high inflation readings could delay the Fed’s timing for rate cuts this year.

Inflation at 2.8% for the third straight month. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE, came in at another 2.8% since Feb. ??♂? Markets are really at a toss up on what to expect. Rate cuts as soon as July have increased in odds, but others are still skeptical in the direction of rates due to the continued strength in the economy and sticky inflation numbers. article: https://lnkd.in/gh3k2AYX

Shocking stat of the day: Inflation has not fallen in a single month since January 2021, according to Zerohedge. This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years. We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months. Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months. Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation. But don't worry, the labor market is strong. (TKL)

Inflation was hotter than expected in March, continuing a trend we’ve seen in recent months, as rising energy and shelter costs added to pricing pressure. While annual inflation still remains well below the peaks seen in 2022, these stubbornly high inflation readings could delay the Fed’s timing for rate cuts this year