GeoQuant’s presidential election model forecasts a 53% probability of government change, a “toss up” that leans toward Republican candidate Donald Trump, but with momentum favoring Harris. Our House election model forecasts a 56% probability of change, suggesting a Democratic takeover of the currently GOP-controlled lower chamber. With the Senate likely shifting to Republican control, divided government would continue to constrain legislative activity. Elevated levels of Political Violence Risk indicate that election results will be contested, however a new scenario analysis shows a low tail risk of an anti-government insurrection attempt.?A contested outcome will reinforce the very close link between U.S. Political Risk and gold price even if the U.S. dollar continues to rally.? #PoliticalRisk #Election #Gold #UnitedStates
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Board Member | Partner AIC Capital || Former C- Suite Executive Global Financial Corp Citigroup, Barclays | Diversity Speaker | FinTech | Venture Capital || "Top100 Latino BoardMembers" | Book Author
We are very proud to be a truly Real Estate investments “ Research based -Data driven” company. It drives all the decisions made regarding our Assets . With the addition of our Research PHD guru to our Team .. we feel we are able to add even more value to our Clients Investments decisions . Hope you enjoy the research report below . #realestateinvestments #alternativeinvestments
The US 2024 presidential election is two shy months out, in which Donald Trump will face incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris for control of the White House on November 5, 2024. Given how unstable election campaigns tend to be, this paper asks:?What does an analysis of key economic trends during past presidential election periods reveal about the 2024 presidential election’s influence on the US economy and real estate investment? AIC Capital, LLC is proud to share its first Proprietary Research Report written by Arthur Rempel.
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Those who share my enthusiasm for history might find this interesting. America's best election predictor is a historian, Professor Allan Lichtman of American University, not a statistician, pollster, or political scientist. He has correctly predicted 9 or 10 – depending how you count – of the past 10 U.S. presidential elections. I say "9 or 10" because he predicted a Gore victory in 2020, and analysts generally say Bush's victory resulted from a ballot error in Florida. Professor Lichtman's predictive system uses 13 factors drawn from past American elections, going back to 1860. It also uses methods developed for, of all things, predicting earthquakes. Professor Lichtman's predictions have been far more accurate than those based on polls – including in 2016, when he predicted Donald Trump's win, despite Hillary Clinton's large advantage in the polls. Professor Lichtman won't make his final 2024 prediction until August, but he says his 13 factors heavily favor Biden. "A lot would have to go wrong" – would have to change – "for Biden to lose." https://lnkd.in/g6cptuVt
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Polling is going to be coming at you from all directions in the next 6 weeks and it can be hard to keep track of leads and how they compare. I've put a few thoughts on the Cavendish #GE24 Election Hub on: ?? Why different pollsters have very different results ?? Why you need to be careful how you compare polls ?? How different pollsters calculate their results ? The power of the undecided voter ?? Will the polls narrow? Give it a read here: https://lnkd.in/gXfxGuSt I love talking about polling - drop me a line or comment below with your thoughts on how the polls are shaping up, or any questions. #polling #ge24 #generalelection
Polling can help to tell a useful story about who’s up and who’s down in the run-up to an election ?? But it also plays a big part in the spin machine. Parties have a habit of trumpeting one solitary favourable poll and ignoring a succession of bad ones. David Button, our Head of Insight, writes about what you should be looking out for as we get closer to 4 July. Read more here:?https://lnkd.in/gXfxGuSt ?#generalelection2024 #ge2024
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Our correspondent examines the responses from both parties following the initial face-off between Biden and Trump in this election cycle. #JoeBiden #DonaldTrump #assassinationattempt #NikkiHaley #RonDeSantis #politicalstability #environmentalcrises #debateanalysis #electoralfallout #partyreactions #publicsafety #crisismanagement #civicparticipation #voterconfidence #polarization #misinformation #historicalrelevancy https://lnkd.in/dPtHs-YE
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As we approach the 2024 election season, understanding how different economic and market factors intersect with political shifts can be invaluable for both personal and professional financial planning. For a deeper look at how the election could influence market trends and financial decisions, explore our latest insights on potential scenarios and strategies. For a comprehensive view of state-by-state election forecasts, we've introduced a valuable resource at https://www.270towin.com/. Stay informed about the evolving landscape and make informed decisions for your financial future. https://lnkd.in/e5CaKwEV #FinancialPlanning #Election2024 #InvestmentInsights #StayInformed
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With the Presidential election only months away, you may be wondering what impact that’ll have on the housing market. Fortunately, the impact is usually small and temporary. History shows us the market remains strong during election years. That's good news for you because it means this year's election shouldn't affect your move. If you want the data, shoot me a message. #realestateadvice #housingmarketupdate #dream #educate #inspire #thePLPteam #PlatinumLife
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What's going on with the 2024 Presidential Race? Every US Presidential Race cycle, I put together analytical analysis around the election. I have updated my analysis on May 31, 2024 with my latest analytical thinking. If you would like to access my 2024 Presidential Race website, click --> https://lnkd.in/ecsmENyn By Amos B Robinson | www.RobinsonAnalytics.com
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??? It’s Election Day! ??? Today, your voice matters more than ever, and not just for our country but also for our real estate landscape. The policies decided by our elected officials—from tax codes and zoning laws to infrastructure spending—directly impact property values, commercial real estate development, and investment opportunities. Whether you're a property owner, investor, or looking to grow in real estate, remember that voting is a powerful way to help shape a future that supports growth and prosperity in our industry. Make sure you get to the polls and make your voice heard. Let’s build a stronger future, one vote at a time! ???? #ElectionDay #Vote #RealEstate #realNREMG
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Spoiler alert: ? Harris to win ? A great interview learning yet again how #skills and #methods in one area can inform another, here seismology providing a basis for a model predicting the winner of US Presidential elections. . ? Allan Lichtman?is an American historian. He has taught at?American University?in?Washington, D.C., since 1973. Lichtman created the?Keys to the White House?model with Soviet?seismologist?Vladimir Keilis-Borok?in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since?1984, with the exceptions of?2000, where he predicted an?Al Gore?victory (but did caution his model only pertained to the popular vote), and?2016, where he predicted a?Donald Trump?popular vote victory and afterwards revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.? Wikipedia There we go!
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Here's What the U.S. Presidential Election Means For Gold & Silver https://zurl.co/2h0c #GoldInvesting #SilverStacking #Gold #Silver #WealthPreservation #AlbertaGold #TorontoBullion #BullionInvestment #SafeHavenInvesting #AssetSecurity #StoreOfValueAssets
