Francois Sonneville的动态

Euro’24 success for the Dutch and Belgium …..... leading brewers Although it feels to me that the summer has not yet started, we have come to the end of the European Championships football. For brewers the weather in Northern Europe could have been slightly better, but at least the results on the pitch generally went the right way. We looked at publicly available data from the Oxford Partnership about the number of pints sold in UK pubs during match days, as well as at comments from UK retailers about sales leading up to yesterday’s game, and extrapolated this to overall beer volumes. The effect on countries playing three games at the group stages is a 0.25% volume increase for 2024 (just shy of an extra trading day). Making progress throughout the knock-out stages adds a further 0.09%, 0.17%, 0.24% and eventually 0.54% for reaching the final. When we multiply beer consumption in the 24 participating countries with these percentages, we calculate an additional beer volume of 225 million litres. In the most ideal scenario (which includes a Germany – Spain final), volumes would have increased by 260 million litres, while in a worst scenario for the beer industry (and an Albania – Georgia final), volumes would have grown by only 100 million litres. When we look at individual brewers (and assume stable market shares), Heineken comes out on top, followed by AB InBev and Mahou-San Miguel. For Heineken, the final was between two of its largest EURO’24 countries. Only drawback was that its no.1 market by volume, Poland, got eliminated at the group stages. AB InBev benefitted from the strong performance of England, which helped them leapfrog some larger European competitors. For Mahou San-Miguel (and its slightly smaller compatriot Damm) the tournament could not have gone any better. Apart from the actual result on the pitch, these companies also celebrated that the final was contested between their two largest beer markets. Asahi (and to a lesser extent Carlsberg) might have wished for different score lines in Germany, although the pre-tournament odds for a ‘Poland – Czech Republic’ final were probably fairly similar as those for a heatwave here in England ??. #Euro24 #Beer #Heineken #ABInbev #MahouSanMiguel #Damm #Carlsberg #Asahi PS. Calculations are for illustrative purposes only and do not take e.g. differences in regional weather conditions, value of beer sales or football tourism into account

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John Kelly

Strategy Director Beverages & Supplements at Kerry

7 个月

Francois Sonneville great calculations ??

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