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To understand how valuable monitoring alt-social is, check out this week's US Election newsletter. Traditional media just doesn't cut it anymore. #uselections #altsocial #socialmedia

Millions vote early as polls drift toward Trump. More than 14 million Americans have already cast their ballots with two?weeks to go before Election Day, according to NBC’s early voting tracker. The 2024 race for the White House remains a toss-up, but there’s been undeniable movement toward Trump in public polling. Trump has overtaken Harris for the first time in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ election forecast. While Trump’s 52-48 advantage is negligible, the trend line has moved steadily in Trump’s favor since the beginning of the month, when Harris held a 55-45 advantage. Trump leads 53 percent to Harris’s 47 percent in Nate Silver’s election model. He also leads 54 to 46 in The Economist’s latest forecast, marking a 6-point jump over the past week. Again, these numbers are scarcely better than a coin toss, but the trend is in Trump’s favor. Trump overtook Harris in the 538 average of Pennsylvania for the first time. If Trump wins the Keystone State, his odds of winning the White House skyrocket.?

I'm often asked what I think will happen in the US election, because I follow it a little too obsessively, and because I took some time out of consulting to report on the last one (here's my long read on Tulsi Gabbard, who back then was running as a Democrat but is now on Trump's transition team - https://lnkd.in/dJ7PHfhg). What I 'think' and what the polls tell us are not necessarily the same. The polls tell us the outcome is currently within the margin of error, ie too close to call. Swing state polls overnight favour Harris, so more broadly, if the election was tomorrow, I'd predict either a narrow Trump victory, a relatively comfortable Harris win, or anything else in between. What do I actually 'think' will happen? It might tell you about my hopes and fears, but it won't be grounded in evidence. When we're asked to advise clients around potential issues, be it localised, granular level risks to companies or broader, macro level geopolitical outcomes, we apply the same standard. We interpret what the evidence tells us, and we offer the benefit of our experience. Experience tells us it's still too early to make a call as we're yet to learn this election's 'October surprise'.

From the Field - Day 0 - election morning thoughts It’s election morning in America and here are some morning thoughts before we head out to canvas. What happens on e-day is different from back home. Electoral regulations across the United States do not permit canvassing voters while in line at a polling place. That means no political bunting at polling booths as well - this place truly is heaven. So that means that the volunteer capacity of the campaign focuses on doorknocking in targeted areas of likely and strong Democratic voters to ensure they are heading to the polls. Phonebanks will then call into regional areas doing the same. Folks back home have been asking about the vibe and to be honest, it’s actually hard to tell when you are right in the thick of it, if that makes sense. But what I can see of the two campaigns, Harris is finishing off the stronger. The Vice President has been getting Obama size rallies in battleground states (she was in Detroit last night, PA today). This matters because it can be a sign of voter enthusiasm for a candidate. For Harris to win, she will need to ensure every Democratic vote is turned out in the seven battleground states. This level of candidate enthusiasm for someone who has only been endorsed for 3 months, is a credit to the campaign. The other vibe check that is distinct from 2016 is that nobody is taking this election for granted. There is no sign from the voters we are canvassing over the past week that they were sitting this one out. Even more assuring, they were very clear on who they were voting for. But this is Wayne County, Detroit - this is a working class Democratic heartland. The experience in Macomb (Detroit northern suburbs) and Oakland (Detroit western suburbs) county which are largely white and more middle class will be a different experience on the doors. That’s it for now, another update in the afternoon.

Election Day is nearly here! As polls remain the closest that they've ever been, we decided to take a different approach in analyzing this year's presidential campaigns. We're not political pollsters, but we do know brands! In this webinar on-demand, our marketing experts offer a deep dive into the brand strength of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. ? Watch to learn more about... ?? The key Drivers that are leading Americans to the polls in 2024 ?? How campaign ads launched by Trump and Harris impacted voter perception of each candidate ??? Which candidate has built the stronger brand going in the lead up to Election Day Watch the webinar here: https://lnkd.in/e4NN6dvm #electionday #brandstrategy #campaigneffectiveness #uselection

Nikki steps aside, Half her flock strays from the path, Trump's call goes unheard. #fraikufriday In the wake of Nikki Haley's departure from the presidential race, a fascinating dynamic has emerged, one that speaks volumes about the current state of political allegiance and the critical importance of targeted messaging in campaigns. It's been observed that half of Haley's supporters are now hesitant to throw their support behind Donald Trump, indicating a significant divide within their ranks. This phenomenon serves as a stark reminder of the complex, nuanced landscape that political campaigns must navigate in today's world. Why is this incredibly important? The refusal of half of Haley's base to support Trump underscores a profound opportunity for both the Biden and Trump campaigns, but will also affect down-ballot races. It reveals a unique subset of the electorate that is up for grabs, yet not easily swayed by traditional party lines or the usual rhetoric. This group's reluctance to automatically follow the next-in-line Republican candidate speaks to a broader desire for policies, values, motivations, or leadership styles that resonate more closely with their own. Moreover, this situation highlights the importance of flexibility and adaptability in campaign strategies. In an era where voter loyalty can no longer be taken for granted, the ability to listen, adapt, and respond to the evolving landscape is more critical than ever. Campaigns that can effectively reach out to, and connect with, these disenchanted voters through tailored messaging and authentic engagement strategies stand to gain a significant advantage.

https://lnkd.in/et9VTetm The 4 Words That Will Decide The #Presidency In 2024: #Election Protection, #Grassroots #Organizing by Harvey Wasserman??#uspolitics ..."In 2020, our national election was saved by hand-marked, hand-counted, digitally scanned paper ballots… by a fierce nationwide battle to save voter registration rolls… and by a massive grassroots organizing campaign that inspired citizens to vote in record numbers, with those votes reliably protected once cast. Amidst the Covid Pandemic, that movement ultimately rode an unprecedented wave of tens of millions of paper ballots that were mailed out and mailed back in through the US Postal Service. ... The Bannon plan is to fill those precincts with Trump operatives trained to drive away and de-register anti-Trump votersand deny them ballots. That also means terrorizing election boards and precinct staff, guaranteeing that countless ballots that do get through remain uncounted. ? Thus the battle over local election boards and precinct staffing determine this election’s outcome. ? Many thousands of young people are now volunteering to work this election.?Hopefully they’ll work the polls while protecting the voter rolls and guaranteeing the precincts will deliver the ballots that a rightfully authorized and accurately count them once cast. ... to win them, the unavoidable imperative is to focus campaign dollars not on diffuse media buys, but on“relational” campaigns based on door-knocking, street canvassing, democracy centers, and what organizer Ray McClendon calls “target messaging from targeted messengers” who work the neighborhoods where they live. That means on-the-ground organizing led by local activists advocating for ocal issues with tangible impacts on local voters. ... Whether you like it or not, democracy means you ARE involved.?So... To help save the 2024 election see the People’s HUB for Grassroots Election Organizing:?https://lnkd.in/eKcMupGP?"...

With the heavy slew of negative ads in this election season, #UHBauer Assistant Professor of Marketing Bowen Luo has found that negative ads aren't as effective as people think, suggesting that banning them altogether could boost voter turnout by millions. Hear more about her research in the latest episode of #BauerBusinessFocus here: https://lnkd.in/gv2BJyWG #BauerResearch

With the heavy slew of negative ads in this election season, #UHBauer Assistant Professor of Marketing Bowen Luo has found that negative ads aren't as effective as people think, suggesting that banning them altogether could boost voter turnout by millions. Hear more about her research in the latest episode of #BauerBusinessFocus here: https://lnkd.in/gv2BJyWG #BauerResearch

Millions of Americans are casting their ballots this #ElectionDay. This election cycle, we've seen an unprecedented surge in #deepfakes and digitally-altered altered content designed to mislead and influence public opinion. Synthetic media and #AI-generated misinformation pose major challenges for both individual voters and broader democratic processes. To protect online trust and information integrity, it’s more important than ever to verify sources, question suspicious content, and rely on trusted information channels. ? Find your polling place and other official voting resources at Can I Vote here: https://lnkd.in/dvzEbKt Your vote is your voice — make it count: Get to the polls and participate in democracy today! ???