Maybe we've created a SaaS doom loop? Or 2.
1. VC investment in SaaS has fallen off a cliff - we went from $62B in 2022 to $14B in 2023 according to Pitchbook. Which means we have less capital to fund customer acquisition. Which means growth slows. Which spooks investors (public and then private) who want to see CAC reductions, but also fundamentally view SaaS as a growth investment. Which means they invest less capital. And so on, the cycle continues...
2. Early/mid stage SaaS companies like to sell to other SaaS companies - it's one of the oldest tricks in the SaaS playbook. But because VCs are investing less in SaaS startups, we now have fewer, well funded target accounts. Which makes it harder to get to our short/mid term ARR targets. Which means VCs are less likely to invest in SaaS startups. And so on... Not as big of a deal as doom loop number 1, but still a factor.
BTW, I don't think these doom loops are the primary causes of our now 2.5 year downturn. I just think that we don't pay enough attention to how incestuous VC/SaaS dynamics impact our business.
Also, I just like the term "doom loop".
I also don't think it's unhealthy. The market has spoken and they want us to figure out how to grow efficiently. Until we do that, the downturn will continue (or "the beatings will continue until CAC improves").
So what gets us out of this? Right now, all bets are on AI, but if you're expecting a near term recovery, I wouldn't bet on it. I suspect the AI story is one that will be told over years, not quarters.