Dragonfly的动态

Shared my thoughts broadly this morning on both macro and crypto and re: sharing them here. ISM point has already come and gone Macro - Strongly believe the severity of this broad sell-off is primarily related to a major deleveraging event due to people utilizing the yen for cheap leverage and the carry trade. This looks to almost be over with JPYUSD up over 10% last month and the Nikkei down over 20% on the same period - There is risk we will see some contagion related to the above but likelihood of Japanese financial intervention even higher which should fend off some risk - The 2 yr is clearly showing that the market is concerned the fed is behind the curve after a bad jobs report but lots of intricacies that indicate the concern is potentially overblown, with many temporary layoffs and jobless claims linked to weather. Trend is bad, but specifics are mitigating and at historically strong levels. ISM manu miss also linked to the unease but that has been on trend and services more important, which i'm optimistic on - Consumers still look like they are strong, with strong retail buying and historically normal rates of charge offs - Concern about the ROI on the AI related capex is resetting tech growth expectations, but believe those concerns to be over sold. Expect these stocks to come roaring back when risk on - VIX and Fear/Greed spiking, likely in for lots of short term vol and Aug is a low liquidity month, but risk/reward likely to get into decent ranges if we see the VIX turnover and we get solid footing as early as this week - Market pricing in an emergency rate cut, which I believe doesn't happen and extends fear until Jackson Hole - Iran seems to be backing off it's language around any large scale conflict - We are probably within months (<1yr) of new QE, large rate cuts, and a return to accelerated business growth - Overall some continued short term pain, but medium term bullishness Crypto - Lots of endogenous things have happened to crypto recently, Germany selling, Mt Gox distributions, Jump slamming the markets, etc and we've had relative strength until now - This seems like capitulation, so expect we find bottom soon before equities. Moves down will be primarily macro + leverage - Non native retail not coming for awhile - too much pain, we need sustained growth again. Native retail was over leveraged in long tail assets and have been bled dry the last few months, most "high quality" alts down 70%+ - Liquidity coming back in is going to coalesce around the majors. Most alts are never reaching ATHs again, especially without strong PMF - Overall lots of things to be bullish about, beyond the business cycle / macro we also have ETFs now reach a broad set of investors, banks selling those ETFs, broad tokenization, growing PMF in stablecoin/payment usage, increasing amounts of defi activity, professionalization of the cefi markets, coming regulatory clarity in the US, and more general acceptance of decentralized systems