Diamond Age的动态

I’ve been vocal about this point for a while: we need more inventory if we want to see home prices decrease. Recently, the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 0.5%, and we observed an increase in inventory of up to 41% in some key markets. It's important to note that shelter inflation accounts for 30% of core inflation. Therefore, for the Fed to effectively combat inflation, they need to lower interest rates. While they may not acknowledge it, the Fed’s rapid increase in interest rates contributed to stagnation in existing home sales, further driving up shelter inflation. Jerome Powell learned from Paul Volcker, who famously doubled interest rates from 11% to 20% to successfully eradicate inflation. In contrast, Jerome Powell raised rates from 0% to 5.25%, marking a staggering 525% increase. I believe that if he had only increased rates to 2%, the housing market wouldn’t have stalled, and home prices would have gradually begun to decrease. Instead, the sharp rise in interest rates led to a lack of inventory, where demand outstripped supply, pushing home prices even higher.

Hey everyone! Even though home price gains are slowing, they’re still moving faster than inflation. ?? That’s big news for anyone in the market—it shows the strength of housing, even in a cooling environment. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, now might be the time to jump in. Let’s chat about what this means for you and your clients! ?? #HousingMarket #InflationWatch #StayAhead

As everyone knows by now, rising interest rates and low supply have been the most significant factors shaping the real estate market since 2022. The Federal Reserve began raising key interest rates in March 2022 in response to skyrocketing inflation. Following the pandemic-era sharp rises in the cost of materials and products across several industries, inflation in the immediate aftermath shot to its highest levels in 40 years. To tackle these high inflation rates, the Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, from almost zero to 5.5%. These interest rate hikes ended the era of historically low mortgage interest rates. Typical rates ranged between 3.4% for a 15-year fixed mortgage and 4.2% for a 30-year fixed mortgage in February 2022. By October 2023, rates topped 8%—the highest since 1971. Mortgage rates did begin coming down by the end of 2023 after several months of the Fed deciding to hold key rates and not raise them any further. The soaring interest rates, in combination with a heavily depleted inventory and high home prices, created an inhospitable environment for buyers. The result: As of December 2023, home sales activity dropped to its lowest level in 28 years, according to newly released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). What Market Conditions Have Meant for Home Prices in Different Regions From an investor’s perspective, this level of pressure on the housing market translates into a worry about the market eventually caving in and home values falling off a cliff. This hasn’t happened, and home prices have continued to grow in many parts of the country, seemingly against all odds. However, there is a concrete reason why home prices are continuing to grow despite the interest rate hikes: pent-up demand going back to the beginning of the pandemic that cannot be satisfied by current limited inventory. So, the real estate market as a whole was still defined by growth in 2023. As of December 2023, the median home price in the U.S. was $382,600, up 4.4% from $366,500 in December 2022.? National averages like these typically conceal the regional realities of the real estate market. It is always more accurate (and more useful for investors) to talk about real estate markets. We pulled data and averaged the median sales price of the top 100 markets in the U.S. from 2022 and 2023 and compared them to find year-over-year growth rates. The results show strong regional disparities consistent with post-pandemic regional market trends. Affordability was the single most important factor in buyers’ decisions from at least the middle of 2022 when mortgage rates first began climbing. It was, of course, a huge factor before that, too, and drove pandemic-era migration patterns, including the by-now infamous Sun Belt boom that saw cities like Austin, Texas, and Phoenix experience unprecedented increases in demand.?

At least we're not alone in our affordability and inventory crisis. Hopefully these numbers will help spur the Fed to make that rate cut in September. https://lnkd.in/gqjm6gzF #realestate #realestateinvesting #realestateinvestor #californiarealestate #losangelesrealestate #realestateexpert #realestateagent #southbayrealestate #realtors

Get Ready! Lower Interest Rates May Be Coming Sooner Than Expected If you’ve been waiting to buy a home or feel stuck in your current one due to high interest rates, it’s time to get excited. The latest CPI report came in below 3% for the first time since March 2021, at 2.9%! This could signal that rate cuts are on the horizon and may be lower than many expect. With housing cost inflation still high and not enough homes available for new households, the likelihood of a housing crash seems low. If you’ve been holding off, your opportunity to buy or upgrade could be just around the corner. Make sure you’re prepared—get all your ducks in a row, because your chance may be coming soon! Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730 Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628 Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate #InterestRates #HomeBuying #RealEstate #MarketUpdate #HousingMarket #MortgageBroker

July interest rates are expected to follow the trend of home prices downward. Not all markets are seeing a price decline particularly in the Northeast and Florida where prices remain strong. Inflation is expected to continue to decline as we approach the end of the year and this will result in modest interest rate adjustments according to the Fed #williamlyonsrealtor #interestrates #newhome #newhomebuyer #thekeyescompany #forbesglobalproperties

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, INFLATION... Analysts expect August New Home Sales to dip slightly, but the Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes should reverse course and rise. Also rising should be the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, though gains are expected to slow. Also slowing could be August PCE Prices, the Fed's favorite inflation measure. #justcallwilliam @ 630-881-8655

Another strong appreciation reading showing home prices nationally rose 6.6% between the first quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024. I personally did not know this, but did you know more Americans own real estate than stocks? According to the latest Gallup poll, only about 54% of Americans own any stocks. Meanwhile, about 63% of Americans own real estate according to the Census Bureau.

The tale of two economies continues. CNBC reports that the only category that saw gains over the last year was the $1 million+ range. The percentage of cash buyers nudged higher as well, from 26% to 28%. One highlight of the article came from Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. “The median listing price is being held down by an influx in smaller and lower-priced listings. In fact, the number of for-sale homes in the $200K to $350K pride bucket surged by 50% compared to a year ago.” This much-needed inventory should help surpress price increases in the months ahead, supporting further disinflation, particularly in the CPI measure where housing is most heavily weighted.

At least we're not alone in our affordability and inventory crisis. Hopefully these numbers will help spur the Fed to make that rate cut in September. https://lnkd.in/giZiT-r5 #realestate #realestateinvesting #realestateinvestor #californiarealestate #losangelesrealestate #realestateexpert #realestateagent #southbayrealestate #realtors