Chris Kaiser的动态

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/transmission-matters-you-care-climate-change-robert-russ

We can absolutely build more capacity. And we can handle some EVs and heat pumps today. The real question is: "Can we finance and build ENOUGH capacity FAST enough to keep up with government mandates, and customer choices?' The second question is: "How much of an increase in the electric bill will customers tolerate if we do build enough capacity?" Most circuits will handle 1 EV in every garage charging at 220, 20 amps (level 1 charging), Most will handle 3-5% of vehicles charging spread out over a 24 hour period at Level 2 (8 kW) with few or no issues. A good 30% of the 25,000 that I have data for will not be able to support more than 10-20% EV charging at the low end (8 kW) of level 2. Chargers like Ford's 19.2 kW changer are death to these (typically) 5,000 volt circuits. Right now our forecasting capability of where EVs and Heat Pumps are based on who can afford the extra costs. The Inflation reduction act (IRA) makes a lot of money available to neighborhoods that do not have the capability to buy these things without help. So our forecasting models were broken by the IRA. Planning and building (rebuilding) circuits takes 4-6 years (2 years of lead time for equipment or more right now). This will be hard.

It's not very different from when the automobile first came out and cities quickly passed red flag laws that you could only go 2 miles an hour with a flag bearer walking in front of you. There was a whole industry of people that cleaned up horse manure and created the tackle that went with the horse that was threatened by the automobile. Not to mention the equin industry in general and it was used as a political football back then. Just as EV is today. People on horseback would see an automobile out of gas or broken down and quickly say "you should have gotten a horse." They would say things like "where are you going to get fuel" ,"where are you going to get it fixed" because the infrastructure didn't exist. Now look at today you can't go by a few blocks without seeing a gas station. You can't go a few miles without seeing multiple service centers. The same thing is going to happen with EVSE. The infrastructure will grow because that's where the money is.

No one is saying that, the timeline to do it is everyone's issue. Right now, we aren't sure how we'll handle the next major storm that hits the coast because lead times for electrical equipment is out to 50 weeks, so to throw a mandate out there innthe middle of a mess complicates it all. US also doesn't have access to materials needed for EV Batteries. There is alot to resolve before madates. They should have come after all the unknowns were known. Some politician throwing a dart at the calendar and money to speed some things while others are nit included us senseless.

100 years ago, there were no proposed bans on candles, wood fireplaces, furnaces, or kitchen sinks. There are proposed bans on ICE vehicles, furnaces, gas appliances, and other consumers of fossil fuels now. That's the difference. There were options back then, but those options are being legislated out of existence in this current transition. Just my opinion. What's yours?

I do get this point, but just curious to know if the adoption of the all these electric appliances mentioned on the tweet mandated? Were there talks of banning lanterns and mandate sales of light bulbs to be a certain percentage by a certain year? I think when people complain about grid capacity and EVs, they mostly do about such mandates and targets.

It would be helpful if people ran their appliances and charged their cars when demand isn't peaking. This can be done without adding capacity.

Insightful post. On similar lines: In 1992 the UK used practically no gas for electricity generation. It’s use grew rapidly through the 90s, but PEAKED only 16 years later in 2008. It grew from 1 to 32 million tonnes oil equivelant - an average exponential rate of 24% per year. In the next 10 years 2008, it’s use in electricity SHRANK by almost as much as it grew in the preceding 10… partly due to reduced electricity consumption, but also because of the exponential growth in wind and solar. What I take from this is that energy transitions on a large scale can happen much quicker than we imagine…

So many idiots compare TODAY's electrical grid to the power needs of a 100% EV car stock, which will take 20 years to replace (if ever)