Carmignac的动态

As far as the economy is concerned, Trump was elected on a misunderstanding. On the one hand, the Democrats lost on inflation and the feeling among US voters that their standard of living has declined. But inflation was actually a global phenomenon, and US households were better able to absorb it than those elsewhere in the world thanks to substantial wage increases in the country. And on the other, Trump’s economic policy will pave the way to future inflation. Trump’s economic platform is based on five measures that will initially result in faster economic growth and higher consumer prices. His plans to curb immigration should be quick to implement. That will soon push up wages and eventually affect all segments of the economy. His intention to cut taxes, and especially corporate taxes, coupled with large-scale deregulation, will bolster sentiment among business leaders and consumers. We’re already seeing signs of this improved sentiment, and it should lead to greater capital investment and consumer spending. Trump’s plans to increase tariffs will similarly lift consumer prices by raising the cost of imports and discouraging domestic manufacturers from lowering their prices. As far as Trump’s push to “cut the fat out” of the US government is concerned, it could lead to a more efficient US economy and a marked decrease in the cost of administration. But we’d be overly optimistic to expect to see the effects anytime soon, even if Elon Musk is the one charting the course. Under “Trumponomics”, the tax cuts would be funded by the higher tariffs, preventing a further expansion in the fiscal deficit and the need for additional financing. But any increase in tariffs – whether actually implemented or used as a negotiating tactic – would go into effect only after the tax cuts (if at all). We can therefore be sure that the initial consequences of Trump’s economic policy will be faster economic growth, higher inflation, and a worsening of America’s public finances. ?? Read the Carmignac’s note → https://okt.to/qB6YS8 #Investment #Economy #Marketingcommunication #Investinginyourinterest

As far as the economy is concerned, Trump was elected on a misunderstanding. On the one hand, the Democrats lost on inflation and the feeling among US voters that their standard of living has declined. But inflation was actually a global phenomenon, and US households were better able to absorb it than those elsewhere in the world thanks to substantial wage increases in the country. And on the other, Trump’s economic policy will pave the way to future inflation. Trump’s economic platform is based on five measures that will initially result in faster economic growth and higher consumer prices. His plans to curb immigration should be quick to implement. That will soon push up wages and eventually affect all segments of the economy. His intention to cut taxes, and especially corporate taxes, coupled with large-scale deregulation, will bolster sentiment among business leaders and consumers. We’re already seeing signs of this improved sentiment, and it should lead to greater capital investment and consumer spending. Trump’s plans to increase tariffs will similarly lift consumer prices by raising the cost of imports and discouraging domestic manufacturers from lowering their prices. As far as Trump’s push to “cut the fat out” of the US government is concerned, it could lead to a more efficient US economy and a marked decrease in the cost of administration. But we’d be overly optimistic to expect to see the effects anytime soon, even if Elon Musk is the one charting the course. Under “Trumponomics”, the tax cuts would be funded by the higher tariffs, preventing a further expansion in the fiscal deficit and the need for additional financing. But any increase in tariffs – whether actually implemented or used as a negotiating tactic – would go into effect only after the tax cuts (if at all). We can therefore be sure that the initial consequences of Trump’s economic policy will be faster economic growth, higher inflation, and a worsening of America’s public finances. ?? Read the Carmignac’s note → https://okt.to/BVCuQU #Investment #Economy #Marketingcommunication #Investinginyourinterest

As far as the economy is concerned, Trump was elected on a misunderstanding. On the one hand, the Democrats lost on inflation and the feeling among US voters that their standard of living has declined. But inflation was actually a global phenomenon, and US households were better able to absorb it than those elsewhere in the world thanks to substantial wage increases in the country. And on the other, Trump’s economic policy will pave the way to future inflation. Trump’s economic platform is based on five measures that will initially result in faster economic growth and higher consumer prices. His plans to curb immigration should be quick to implement. That will soon push up wages and eventually affect all segments of the economy. His intention to cut taxes, and especially corporate taxes, coupled with large-scale deregulation, will bolster sentiment among business leaders and consumers. We’re already seeing signs of this improved sentiment, and it should lead to greater capital investment and consumer spending. Trump’s plans to increase tariffs will similarly lift consumer prices by raising the cost of imports and discouraging domestic manufacturers from lowering their prices. As far as Trump’s push to “cut the fat out” of the US government is concerned, it could lead to a more efficient US economy and a marked decrease in the cost of administration. But we’d be overly optimistic to expect to see the effects anytime soon, even if Elon Musk is the one charting the course. Under “Trumponomics”, the tax cuts would be funded by the higher tariffs, preventing a further expansion in the fiscal deficit and the need for additional financing. But any increase in tariffs – whether actually implemented or used as a negotiating tactic – would go into effect only after the tax cuts (if at all). We can therefore be sure that the initial consequences of Trump’s economic policy will be faster economic growth, higher inflation, and a worsening of America’s public finances. ?? Read the Carmignac’s note → https://okt.to/DhpJ0n #Investment #Economy #Marketingcommunication #Investinginyourinterest

As far as the economy is concerned, Trump was elected on a misunderstanding. On the one hand, the Democrats lost on inflation and the feeling among US voters that their standard of living has declined. But inflation was actually a global phenomenon, and US households were better able to absorb it than those elsewhere in the world thanks to substantial wage increases in the country. And on the other, Trump’s economic policy will pave the way to future inflation. Trump’s economic platform is based on five measures that will initially result in faster economic growth and higher consumer prices. His plans to curb immigration should be quick to implement. That will soon push up wages and eventually affect all segments of the economy. His intention to cut taxes, and especially corporate taxes, coupled with large-scale deregulation, will bolster sentiment among business leaders and consumers. We’re already seeing signs of this improved sentiment, and it should lead to greater capital investment and consumer spending. Trump’s plans to increase tariffs will similarly lift consumer prices by raising the cost of imports and discouraging domestic manufacturers from lowering their prices. As far as Trump’s push to “cut the fat out” of the US government is concerned, it could lead to a more efficient US economy and a marked decrease in the cost of administration. But we’d be overly optimistic to expect to see the effects anytime soon, even if Elon Musk is the one charting the course. Under “Trumponomics”, the tax cuts would be funded by the higher tariffs, preventing a further expansion in the fiscal deficit and the need for additional financing. But any increase in tariffs – whether actually implemented or used as a negotiating tactic – would go into effect only after the tax cuts (if at all). We can therefore be sure that the initial consequences of Trump’s economic policy will be faster economic growth, higher inflation, and a worsening of America’s public finances. ?? Read the Carmignac’s note → https://okt.to/4nRpmu #Investment #Economy #Marketingcommunication #Investinginyourinterest

If you miss the high inflation of 2022-23, don’t worry.?Donald Trump has proposed a set of policies guaranteed to bring inflation roaring back…and wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.??Trump is campaigning on four very bad ideas: imposing high tariffs, deporting 20-25 million supposedly illegal immigrants, eliminating the Federal Reserve’s independence, and expanding his tax cuts.?If Trump did this, inflation could run at 6 to 9% for years, interest rates could soar, and the economy might stagnate.??#DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #2024Election #Inflation #Economy https://lnkd.in/gbT6SrBA

if trump follows through on his economic policies, the economy will suffer. tariffs increase both costs and prices. tax breaks for the top 1% do not trickle down. more corporate tax cuts do not cause massive repatriation of foreign earnings that are parked outside the US. nor did either the repatriation or reduced income taxes for corporations find it's way to modernization, expansion, wage increases for workers. what they did do was spur stock buyback programs and C-suite bonuses and salary increases. removing the US from trade arrangements does not help the middle and working class American. read the article. then go read the analyses done by Rand, Pew, Brookings, EPI and more. regardless of the how and why of trump's winning, he is a walking disaster aided and abetted by rw oligarchs who have no interest in helping Americans in general. one part of me says, let them have at it. maybe in 2 years enough damage will be evident to wake people up and vote for throwing the gop out of the house and senate. this of course depends on programs and policies at both federal and state levels dealing with voting and elections. the problem with this is the damage may be difficult, if not impossible, to undo. the other part says fight. use gop tactics and become obstructionist as possible. this only works if project 2025 and the enhanced unified executive presidency structure is not fully implemented. we know on day one, some 5,000 pre-vetted personnel will assume positions in every department and agency regardless of existing rules and regulations. this has been discussed by gop operatives for over a year. it just boggles the mind that 51% of those who voted think trump and his handlers will solve anything. the economy is doing incredibly well, inflation has been brought under control and is ~2.4% and should trend down, gdp is up, wages are up, infrastructure issues were addressed. all positive. regardless, we are at a precipice and we need to be both aware and active to limit the damage as much and in every way possible. the gop owns this. don't let them forget. and don't let us forget as we fall into another ditch. read. learn. think. act!

US Senator vs. Governor Pinnochio For those who just flat detest Donald Trump for any reason, yes, Walz did a fantastic job of telling ad-nauseum how Trump over promised and under delivered. Walz called anything Trumps says a misstatement of the facts to make Harris look bad. He also said of himself that he can be a dunderhead. This one really gave me confidence in a Harris-Walz ticket. I watched the Governor give us 90-minutes of Trump bashing and zero minutes of Harris policy as a cause and effect for good things to come especially for the middle class. So, jobs for Americans from a Harris administration? Not likely. Senator Vance at least put some meat and potatoes on the table. The US cannot do anything about a "dirty" China, India, and other countries that produce the consumer goods we buy without a thought for global warming. Bringing all the manufacturing back gives the US cradle-to-grave control over its carbon footprint. As for tariffs, economists squeak that tariffs are an indirect tax on goods. I would argue the devaluation of the dollar through more wasteful programs to is a tax on every aspect of American life. A sales tax then versus another 25% decline in the value of the dollar. I'lll take the tariff and the jobs that return to America and the total control over US caused carbon to boot. As for jobs, since when do tax credits and government loans create long lasting jobs? Never. Even the FDRs New Deal only lasted a few years. The problem is, America's economy is not really set up for labor and manufacturing. We're all about STEM as the raw material that drives the US economy. Yet we still have the factories all along the rivers of the rust belt just waiting to be turned back on. Someone is still depreciating. It's high time to start appreciating them. Maybe start right there Vance's home state of Ohio and in the East near to where he grew up. If we want eggs to cost $1.50 a dozen again. Vote RED in November.

It's no secret that the economy is a driving factor for many voters. Trump is capitalizing on this by routinely blaming President Biden for higher consumer prices, promising that his policies will “fix” inflation. However, economists say Trump’s policy priorities, which include easing environmental regulations, mass deportations, higher tariffs and deficit-funded tax cuts, would likely raise prices instead. Read more from The New York Times: https://lnkd.in/e_8ww_qG

How will Trump's policies impact the market and the economy? We don't know (see yesterday's post). But it's fun to guess! Here are some of the things I'm thinking/hearing from people who are smarter than me (I really like The Compound and Friends and Animal Spirits for balanced commentary). These are all FAR more complex than I'm making them out to be, and I'm ONLY talking about potential economic impacts (posting about social issues is not on brand for me - it has nothing to do with relative importance). Extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Keeps more money in the the pockets of American workers - more money to spend. Good for companies, good for the market. May increase inflationary pressure (more people with more money can cause inflation - a textbook impact of higher deficits). Tariffs: The money comes from one of 3 places - corporate profits, higher prices for consumers, or cost cutting. So these are pretty much negative across the board. Could they cause reshoring? Sure. But that will also cost money (just maybe not as much as the tariffs themselves). Tariffs also increase the value of the USD against other currencies, which makes our exports more expensive abroad - this could harm exporting companies (but it would also potentially decrease the price of imports, partially offsetting the higher prices). It's also possible that other countries would retaliate (like what happened in 2018). Decreasing corporate tax rate: Good for companies, good for the market. Stocks are priced based on how much the companies earn after taxes. If the companies pay less in taxes, they keep more earnings, and that should increase stock prices. It may also spur corporate investment, which is generally good for the economy. Inflationary pressures & higher for longer interest rates: Pretty much everything here could cause inflation (but might not). Higher inflation would probably cause the Fed to keep interest rates high (or raise them). The 2-year yield increased after the election indicating that bond traders think that at least in the short-term, this could be the case. But again, who knows? What did I miss? Add your comments below (please be thoughtful and kind). I'm not posting about individual impacts yet (for instance, will the SALT cap go away?) because I'm waiting to see what the legislation actually will be. Stay tuned!