Capt.(Dr.) S G Naravane的动态

Attended a very comprehensive discussion about the Chinese economy organized by East West Centre: Speaker's summary: Anne Stevenson-Yang How did China grow from an impoverished country to become the second largest economy in the world in just over four decades? And how did this economic miracle come to an end, as seems the case today? To understand the story of China's rapid rise and equally rapid fall, Anne Stevenson-Yang takes us back to the beginning, when Deng Xiaoping took over and opened China’s moribund economy to Western money and know-how. Stevenson-Yang, who lived and worked in China for a quarter of a century, traces each decade of China's tumultuous development, from the roaring 1980s to today's malaise. What happened to the promise of the political change that would come with the opening of the economy? And the institutional reforms of the last four decades? The author says the hope of such change was an illusion all along, and with the rise of Xi Jinping that capitalist experiment has ended.

From Opinion: Xi’s economic plan amounts to foisting an economic growth plan that worked two decades ago onto a China and global economy that have changed considerably.

From Opinion: Xi’s economic plan amounts to foisting an economic growth plan that worked two decades ago onto a China and global economy that have changed considerably.

Tan Teng Boo has been saying for quite some time now that China’s economy is the strongest in the world. His unique views are not simply plucked out from thin air. His bullish views are actually based on his deep and comprehensive research and analysis of China’s economy. What does he mean? To Read More https://lnkd.in/g5dvFkpf

China’s economy is showing signs of strength. It won’t last. These key takeaways from our latest China Economic Outlook explain why. Download the free report now. https://lnkd.in/eZaXaYwg #chinaeconomy #chinagrowth

In a policy change that could potentially be a significant game-changer for the Chinese economy, China announced that it will sell 1.0 trillion Yuan ($138 billion) in ultra-long-term bonds to stimulate economic growth. While this move may exert some pressure on the Yuan in the short-term, it could also indicate that a major shift in economic policy will be announced at the upcoming Politburo congress in July.

I am pleased to share the publication of my latest article in the European Public & Social Innovation Review. "The Reconfiguration of China's Economic Model: The Drive of New Productive Forces and Their Link to International Tensions" This study examines how China’s economic transformation, marked by high investment levels and structurally weak domestic consumption, is generating significant global imbalances and tensions. Despite efforts to boost domestic consumption, China's economy remains reliant on investment and exports, leading to overcapacity that is exported to global markets, particularly in green technologies. This dynamic has intensified trade disputes with major economies, as China’s technological self-sufficiency initiatives challenge global power balances in critical sectors such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. The research highlights how these structural imbalances within China’s economy exacerbate external tensions, fueling sanctions, tariffs, and geopolitical rivalries. This article offers a nuanced analysis of the interplay between China's internal economic challenges and its impact on the global economic and political order. https://lnkd.in/d5fdN3Uv

Logan Wright’s analysis suggests that China's economy has likely reached its peak as a global power, with a structural slowdown now firmly in place due to an overextended credit and investment model. This downturn is exacerbated by an over-leveraged financial system, demographic pressures, and stagnation in crucial sectors such as property and infrastructure. The conventional narrative around stabilizing GDP is questioned, with evidence suggesting that the actual economic situation may be more dire than reported. Wright emphasizes three main points: - China’s economy likely peaked in 2021 as a proportion of the global economy. - Although Beijing's economic strategies are not fixed, they can be adapted, potentially reducing global tensions. - Publicly recognizing the economic slowdown could shift the focus toward sustainable, consumption-driven growth instead of unattainable goals like surpassing the U.S. economy. Wright also highlights the need for a paradigm shift, as China's banking system now limits rather than promotes growth. The potential for advanced manufacturing or consumption to drive future economic growth is met with skepticism, primarily due to structural issues related to productivity and income distribution. A comparison with Japan’s "lost decade" underscores the deflationary risks China faces, while South Korea’s slower but managed growth post-investment boom offers a possible, albeit cautious, roadmap for China’s future. When considering Wright's analysis, it is crucial to explore the broader geopolitical implications of China's economic downturn. A reduced capacity for global influence, especially in initiatives like the Belt and Road, could alter international alliances and economic dependencies. Furthermore, the impact on global economics should be emphasized. As China slows, global growth, especially in economies reliant on Chinese demand, may also decelerate, potentially leading to more stable but lower global economic dynamics. Acknowledging and addressing the slowdown openly may help China craft more sustainable economic policies that align better with global realities. This reorientation could also necessitate a shift in how Western policymakers approach China, viewing it as a declining rather than a rising economic rival. #geopolitics #economics #china #usa #economicdownturn #globalpower #structuralslowdown #creditcrisis #financialsystem #manufacturing #consumption #beltandroad #westernpolicy China Leadership Monitor @Logan Wright