Brush Pass Research的动态

I was recently featured in a FreightWaves article discussing how brokers can leverage the current market to optimize their operations. By embracing a proactive approach now, you can identify key areas for improvement and construct a more resilient brokerage. This will equip you to be more adaptable and ready for the future. Head over to FreightWaves to read the full article: https://hubs.li/Q02wJwM_0 #TaiTMS #FreightBrokers #MarketTrend

Did you know that more than 35,000 carriers have exited the logistics industry in the past year and a half, and roughly 2,750 freight brokers have left the market since December 2022? This according to the TIA (Transportation Intermediaries Association). If you are active in the logistics industry, it will come as no surprise that we have been navigating a freight recession since the pandemic. However, this might end sooner than you think. According to a recent article published by FreightWaves, data suggests that the recession will likely correct itself as early as this fall. What does this mean for carriers? For carriers, this means that business will likely pick up. Asset-based carriers will have more loads to choose from, and brokers will be in greater demand. What does this mean for shippers? For shippers, this means that capacity will start to tighten. Loads will be more difficult to cover, and rates will likely increase. Sources below. https://lnkd.in/gybmEfxb https://lnkd.in/ejkAzSf9

June 2024 data shows there are 10.9% fewer freight brokerages YoY and 10.3% fewer compared to two years ago. The current count now stands at 26,941 compared to 27,206 a year ago and 31,235 at the peak in November 2022. You can check out the real number count changes from my post a couple of days ago here, https://lnkd.in/g4AJ9Zw4. Historically this is the longest and deepest slump in 25 years, and much worse than closures during the Great Recession. Here are change % for different time periods: 6-month % change (-6.9%) 1-year % change (-10.9%) 2-year % change (-10.3%) 3-year % change 4.5% 4-year % change 25.4% 5-year % change 29.7% Thanks as always to Kathy Sardelli & Mark Draeb at Carrier Details LLC for sending this data over. #trucking #logistics #freighttech #freightsales #freightbroker Brush Pass Research

March Freight Metrics Hold Steady, Cass Data Shows ???? ?? The latest Cass Freight Index data for March is in, and here's what it reveals: ?? Shipments and expenditures for March were relatively flat compared to February, falling short of typical seasonal trends. Shipments were down 2.3% from February and 3.6% from the same month last year, while expenditures dipped 1.3% from February and a significant 18.5% year-over-year. ?? Actual rates were down 15.4% year-over-year, reflecting a continued downward trend in freight spend. However, there's a glimmer of hope as Cass anticipates a positive volume inflection by June. ?? Despite the challenges, there's some resilience in the truckload linehaul index, which saw a slight increase of 0.2% sequentially. This suggests that downward pressure on contract rates is easing, with some instances of rate increases observed recently. ?? The data signals a cautious start to the first quarter, with analysts revising expectations for the earnings season. However, with Cass processing billions in freight payables annually, these insights provide valuable guidance for navigating the current market conditions. Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor the pulse of the trucking industry! ????? #TruckingNews #FreightMetrics #CassFreightIndex #TruckingIndustry #TruckingLife #StayInformed

The freight recession may be coming to an end. September's market reports uncovered some happy news. Freight rates are hardly improving—but they're showing milestone improvements not seen since 2022. Read more on what the monthly findings from DAT Freight & Analytics, ACT Research Co., and Cass Information Systems mean for trucking: https://lnkd.in/gzXjSyE8

For the first time this year, the decline in freight brokerage authorities has finally eased up a bit. We’re still looking at a 10.9% drop compared to last year, but this is the first time in 2024 that the decline hasn't gotten worse. It’s a small sign that we might be reaching the bottom. Over the next couple of months, we’ll see if this trend holds. That said, things aren’t completely turning around yet. If we zoom out to the past two or three years, the declines are still pretty rough and even picking up speed. Compared to two years ago, there are 17.5% fewer active freight brokerages. So, while this pause in the one-year decline is a positive sign, we’ll need to see it happen across the two- and three-year metrics as well before we can say the worst is over. As for growth? It’s likely still a ways off unless there’s a major flip in the freight markets. As always a big shout out to Kathy Sardelli and Mark Draeb at Carrier Details LLC for providing the data. November 2024 6-Month: -5.3% 1-Year:? -10.9% 2-Year: -17.5% 3-Year:? -7.6% 4-Year: ? 11.6% 5-year: ? 21.3%

Many of you know I’ve long argued that FreightWaves Contract Load Acceptance Volume (CLAV.USA) metric is not a good representation of for-hire truckload freight volumes in the USA. The recent article Craig Fuller published (https://lnkd.in/gpa4CexE) lends support for my concerns. I want to draw attention to this quote: “Contracted load accepted volumes, another SONAR index measuring contracted load demand, tell us that the market has grown since January 2023. As of April 15, 2024, year-over-year contracted volumes are up 9%.” Here are two facts that raise serious validity concerns (in my professional academic opinion) that make me believe CLAV isn’t nationally representative: [1]: It doesn’t align with Q1 public truckload carrier financial results. When you look at the chart provided in the article, CLAV has been up throughout 2024 relative to 2023. Yet, you have carriers like JB Hunt hauling fewer loads (-6.8% YoY for dedicated and -5.2% for truckload) in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023. That decline can’t represent JBH turning down that much contractual business due to low rates from contractual customers. [2]: Other indexes such as Cass Shipments and For-Hire Trucking Ton-Miles aren’t showing strong YoY gains; they are showing the opposite in YoY declines of 2-4%. The trucking ton-mile index is nationally representative because it is constructed from the Commodity Flow Survey and various government data sources. Implication: while I really like FreightWaves’ Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA), which I believe is a good indicator of the current balance of supply and demand in the truckload sector, too many other data points result in me concluding that the underlying tender volume data are not representative of truckload freight demand. For anyone who wants to argue differently, ask yourself this: are you or most of the other carriers/brokers you know seeing 9% year-over-year increases in truckload freight volumes? JBH and Knight-Swift certainly aren’t. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics

Interesting perspective, Jason Miller ?? While the Freightwaves metric shows a 9% yoy increase, the reality on the ground for us feels more like the -4%. Since one of our biggest segments is driver recruitment advertising, we feel the ups and downs faster than a Lamborghini. From our vantage point, -4% sure seems more like reality. ?? The confident business person in me will say that we welcome this challenging period as it's given us the opportunity to build up strengths in other areas.?? But, for the love of all that is holy, we're actively praying??Q3 defies the odds and turns out to be STRONG! #trucking #freightdata #logisticsinsights #transportationnews

News Break! Freight Market Shows Early Signs of Recovery! July's Cass Freight Index is up 3%, hinting at a recovery. Though rates are still lower than last year, nearly half of brokers expect them to rise within the next six months. Alvys’ integrated TMS solutions help carriers and brokers optimize efficiency to better navigate market shifts, ensuring your business weathers the market storms. Read more here: https://hubs.ly/Q02NfM0w0

This past year has been challenging for the freight brokerage industry, with significant closures impacting the sector. According to FreightCaviar's newsletter, the numbers paint a stark picture: ?? Between November and December 2024, a total of 181 brokerages shut their doors. ?? Throughout 2024, an average of 257 brokerages ceased operations monthly. ?? Currently, there are 2,900 fewer brokerages than anticipated based on a decade of growth trends, indicating a substantial deviation from the expected trajectory. ?? Over the past year, there has been an 11.6% decrease in active brokerages. Despite this challenging environment, the industry's five-year growth rate remains positive, showing a 20.7% increase over that period. These numbers shed light on the tough realities faced by freight brokerages in a down market, emphasizing the need for resilience and strategic adaptation of evolving market dynamics.