Nigeria is following the science. Others should too.

In a move that made my January, Nigeria has approved the commercial release of transgenic insect- resistant and drought-tolerant maize varieties, called TELA. Some have hailed the commercialization of this genetically modified variety as a “breakthrough”, and the decision coincides with the publication of an open letter , signed by 34 Nobel prizewinners, calling on EU lawmakers to embrace genetic editing as the climate crisis begins to hit agriculture – and thus global food security – with increasing force. Notably, after carefully experimenting with biotech traits, China, with the largest corn acreage of any country in the world, is now also fully embracing insect-repelling genetically modified corn varieties .

Globally, we need to grow more food for more people as populations continue rising. We need to do this without converting natural habitats – particularly forests and nature reserves – into farmland.

We also need to do this with less arable land and in more difficult conditions as the world gets hotter, rains become more erratic, and heatwaves increase in intensity. To reduce the environmental impact of agriculture, we need smarter and more targeted use of fertilizers and pesticides. And to add another important point to the list of demands: nutritious and healthy food should be affordable for consumers, and prices should remain stable.

That’s the broad equation for the planet.

In Africa, the stakes are much higher. Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing three times faster than the rest of the world, meaning the region faces the challenge of feeding more people acutely.

None of the countries in the region are seeing agricultural output growing faster than their populations. This is due to several factors: limited irrigation options, for instance,? as well as the fact many African farmers cannot afford or access adequate supplies of fertilizer , meaning their application rates are too low to be efficient, and yields per hectare on the continent are much lower than elsewhere. The continent is also more vulnerable to shocks like the war in Ukraine, which led to a spike in food and raw material prices, as well as to climate change; a recent survey by Bayer showed that 97% of farmers in Africa report that climate change is already having a major impact on their crops. On top of this, many still rely exclusively on traditional agronomic practices which also limit the yield potential.

Partly as a result of these low yields, the price of maize and cassava in Nigeria, both staples and mostly locally grown, doubled in 2022 . Food prices in the country rose by over one third between December 2022 and the same month in 2023. And the picture is similar in many lower-middle income countries.

Nearly three-quarters of lower-middle income countries are currently experiencing food inflation over 5%. If this is continues, we are facing an even worse hunger crisis than in the last years.

Following the pandemic-, conflict-, and climate related challenges, governments are financially less able to simply import the shortfall like Europe, Latin-America, India, or the US (a solution which is not a sustainable model in the long-term, anyway). Similar to the formula for economic growth used by many Asian countries in the second half of the last century? (as outlined in Joe Studwell’s How Asia Works ), I would argue that policy focus on farming communities is needed to overcome anemic productivity.

For any commodity, including food, increasing supply tends to reduce prices – and one surefire way of increasing food supplies is to increase yields. Historically we have achieved this effect through capital-intensive, full-scale industrialized farming. However, blindly pushing agriculture in Africa and developing economies towards this approach is unwise, given the potential damage inflicted on soil, water, biodiversity and plant health by intensive and untargeted use of fertilizers and crop protection – not to mention the vast amounts of natural gas used to make conventional nitrogen fertilizers.

The answer to this predicament is not more farming – it’s smarter farming.

Smarter farming practices are defined by more yield on less land with healthier soils.

The promise of science for African agriculture??

For an example of what smarter farming looks like, let me zoom in on Nigeria. Seventy percent of the country’s 200 million people are involved in the agriculture sector, mostly as subsistence farmers. There is little irrigation farming, low access to automotive technologies like tractors, limited financing, and a population that will double by 2050. This perfect storm of restricted supplies and increasing demand means the country’s forest ecosystems are under threat. It means, therefore, that “enhanced agriculture productivity through adaptation of new technologies and innovations is necessary to ensure food security and nutrition”, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Luckily, Nigeria is doing precisely this. To ensure food security while minimizing the impact on the environment, it has decided to use one highly effective tool: science.

While Europe hems and haws over New Genomic Techniques, African policymakers and scientists are embracing biotechnology to innovate their way out of a food crisis.

The TELA variety of maize, which Bayer worked on alongside the African Agricultural Technology Foundation , with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, CIMMYT, and USAID, yields up to 10 tonnes per hectare under good agronomic practices compared to a national average of 6 tonnes for similar non-GM hybrids. It will be more resistant to the stem borer, a particularly aggressive caterpillar that eats up around 20 million metric tons of maize in Africa every year, enough to feed 100 million people. It is also more drought-resistant than conventionally bred types of maize, which will be an increasingly valuable characteristic in the coming years.

Like all genetically edited foodstuffs , TELA maize has been proven by multiple institutes and health bodies to be entirely safe for human consumption.

In short, it is a win for farmers, consumers and the planet alike.

You might think such a science-based solution to the intertwined climate and food security crises would be open-and-shut, but skepticism towards biotechnology is still high. 58 percent of respondents to the latest Edelman Trust Barometer , published just a few weeks ago, agreed that they were inclined to reject GMO products by personally avoiding or even boycotting them. Indeed, Edelman found that this distrust is symptomatic of a broader public wariness towards science and innovation. Less than 60 percent of respondents trust businesses to make sure innovations are safe, understood and accessible; they had even less faith in media and government to do so.

In part, I believe the widespread skepticism towards genetic technologies is due to the enduring power of our society’s nostalgia for a bucolic idyll that never existed – the “appeal to nature” fallacy that drives the misguided belief that what is natural must be per se better for us. In part, misinformation and disinformation (the intentional distribution of wrong or misleading information) are to blame . But the other key reason behind resistance to agricultural innovation, particularly GMOs, is the misguided approach taken in the past by large corporations. We and our peers didn’t engage with farmers’ and consumers’ concerns early, sincerely or proactively enough, and decisions from decades ago are still hurting us today. We can’t turn back the clock, but we can learn from mistakes and rectify our approach. Here’s how.

Bayer innovations will contribute to smarter farming ?

Alongside our investments in biotechnology, we have also supported many farmers in moving towards regenerative agricultural practices, which will make their soils healthier and more resilient to climate change effects. We know that using fewer chemicals like fertilizers, as well as no- and low-till farming techniques are key to promoting this effect , as they protect the soil and enable to fulfil one of its most important roles: sequestering carbon. We must figure out news ways of supporting crop growth, if we are not to further jeopardize our food systems.

And that is precisely what we have done at Bayer, through initiatives that empower farmers to make regenerative farming a reality. Our Better Life Farming alliance, for instance, goes straight to the heart of the matter by providing smallholder farmers with inputs and training to move towards more sustainable agricultural methods. Similarly, our Carbon Farming program rewards farmers for using methods that protect the soil. We combine this with cutting-edge technological solutions like our FieldView digital platform, which enables farmers to decrease their reliance on chemicals while increasing yields. And in addition to the work of our African colleagues on TELA maize, we’re also making progress at Bayer on a host of other genomic innovations , including:

• Short stature corn , which is more resilient in the harsher conditions which climate change will create, and allows highly efficient inputs of water, fertilizer and crop protection.
• Hybrid wheat , a high-yield variant that can withstand extreme temperatures, especially drought conditions.
• CoverCress , a gene-edited winter weed that protects the soil in between harvests, helps lock carbon into the soil and make it more nutritious, and provides farmers with an extra stream of income as it can be sold as a biofuel.

I am convinced that these and future breakthroughs, will bolster food security. For a while now, I have believed that Andrew McAfee’s framework of capital, innovation, regulation and participation can act as a compass for designing systems that will enable us to respect planetary boundaries while feeding our growing global population. This framework applies to biotechnology, too – and all four dimensions must feed into each other. If companies are to ignite their R&D pipelines (innovation), shareholders must be able to trust that this is money well spent if companies are to continue investing in this way (capital). For this,

we need both policymakers (regulation) and consumers (participation) to put their skepticism aside and to follow evidence-based decision-making in the challenge to feed the world – like Nigeria has.

We cannot afford to squander this opportunity; global food security and the health of 8 billion people depends on it.