Arctic Encounter的动态

I'm happy to flag the first in a series of products capturing my research on the the geopolitics of the Arctic, this one looking at the China-Russia dynamic and what it means to Canada and the transatlantic community. The aim was to give a geopolitically-lensed perspective on the development and security of the far north. The core of the argument: the Arctic is going to figure more and more in the China-Russia relationship. Post-February 2022, China is Russia's best prospective partner there, and the Arctic is essential to Moscow's Eurasian/Asia-Pacific pivot. China has the money and resources, but the deterioration of Beijing's standing in North America and the Nordic countries means Russia is the only option if China wants to an active Arctic presence. The central takeaway is that as long as China is in competition with the USA and Russia is at war with Europe, the CCP and Moscow will look past their differences and find common ground in the Arctic. The character of that relationship will have the most to do with trade, transit and natural resources, but the mutual political, security and defence benefits cannot be forgotten - a secure and productive cross-border relationship involving the Arctic is a major strategic asset to both. These will change the politics of the Arctic. I hope that by trying to consider the Russian Arctic through a broader Eurasian lens makes sense as a way to convey what exactly the challenge will be for Canada and its allies. I've had some great conversations along the way with MLI senior fellows, contacts in Europe and the USA, and the top-notch community of experts and practitioners working in Canada. None of this would have been possible without the amazing support of Dr. Norbert Eschborn and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Canada. Macdonald-Laurier Institute pushed me hard to make sure the argument was up to snuff - a big thanks for that. The result, of course, is purely my responsibility. I look forward to continuing the discussion! There'll be more to come in the near future, looking at the Nordic Arctic and the North American Arctic. North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) Royal Danish Defence College Finnish Institute of International Affairs - FIIA Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies https://lnkd.in/gHEXsPy6

China-Russia Relations in the Arctic What Are the Northern Limits of Their Partnership? Abbie Tingstad, Stephanie Pezard, Yuliya Shokh Nov 7, 2024 To what extent might China and Russia form partnerships in the Arctic region, and what factors might limit the development of their relationship? Although the United States has had Russia as a maritime neighbor in the Arctic since 1867, the growing presence of China in the region as a Russian partner has led to a rare situation in which two competitive — and potentially hostile — states are in very close proximity to North America. In this paper, the authors evaluate Russia's and China's activities in the Arctic and these activities' implications for nations with Arctic interests. The authors consider China's decades-long interest in the Arctic, its growing and possible future economic activities, and the existing and proposed collaborations that Beijing has sought with Arctic countries to realize its goals. The authors propose four scenarios for Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic that represent possible directions for evolution by 2035. Key factors that will shift this evolution in one direction or another include economic and broader geopolitical factors. The authors ultimately conclude that China's attention to the Arctic — in the context of its vastly broader economic security plans — rests on continued regional stability and that whether China engages with other Western Arctic countries may ultimately determine what the real limits are for a Sino-Russian friendship in the Arctic. Western policies that focus on differences between Russia and China may ultimately be more successful in shaping the Arctic's future than those that emphasize their similarities or friendly interactions thus far.

Join us in-person or virtually! China’s international relationships and activities are often scrutinized, and China’s interests and ambitions in the Arctic have become the topic of increasingly heated debate. In recent years, it has pursued greater influence in the region through the expansion of economic initiatives and investments. But despite much Western handwringing over the security and governance implications of Chinese involvement in the region, it's unclear how effective China‘s overtures have been. Join the Arctic Initiative for a seminar about Chinese investment in the Arctic region. Panelists will explore Arctic states' interests and concerns related to Chinese investment in the Arctic, the realities of China's economic activities, and the economic and security considerations Arctic states should weigh when engaging with China and Chinese companies. Thrilled to have Henry Lee, Anders Edstrom, Guebj?rg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir, and Whitney Lackenbauer speak at this event. https://lnkd.in/eACb9FFd Harvard's Belfer Center, North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN), High North Center for Business and Governance

China is exploring the moon’s south pole – and ever busier in the earth’s polar regions. China’s increasing activities in the Arctic are reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape, wrote Mathieu Landriault. As melting ice opens new shipping routes and resource opportunities, China’s heavy investments in research and infrastructure aim to secure strategic and economic advantages, raising concerns among Arctic nations. Russia seeks China’s help in developing an Arctic sea route to (almost) halve the journey time between Europe and Asia, reported The South China Morning Post. Moscow hopes the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will become a year-round shipping lane as global warming allows ships through waters previously passable only in summer. The poles form the coldest front of the new cold war. China’s surging presence shows how Beijing has capitalised on the Ukraine invasion to chip away at traditional Russian spheres of influence both in Central Asia and the Arctic, where Moscow’s reliance on China to sustain its war machine forces acquiescence on Chinese “encroachments.” Countries like China are conducting Arctic research without involving scientists from other countries, an ominous trend because science is supposed to be open, transparent and collaborative, not exactly hallmarks of the Chinese regime, warned Landriault. But Chinese investors may baulk at heavy investment in the NSR, given limited trade flows and the risk of triggering sanctions. #China #Russia #ChinaRussiaRelations #Geopolitics

In a new piece released earlier this month (https://lnkd.in/eeKeZdUr), CASP’s Abbie Tingstad writes with RAND colleagues Stephanie Pezard and Yuliya S. about possibilities for how the relationship between Russia and China in the Arctic might evolve in the years to come. They first baseline the realities of China’s interests and activities in the region, noting that although Beijing and Chinese companies have engaged with different Arctic countries and economies, the scale of overarching investments and presence is relatively small compared with China’s engagement elsewhere in the world, though the interest in doing more in the far north remains high. Despite a declaration of a “no limits” partnership just in advance of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China has not written Russia a blank check for further developing its Arctic economy, which may demonstrate patience in waiting for even better energy and other commercial deals as well as a desire to manage the potential for furthering relationships with some western Arctic countries. Similarly, Russia has not left the door wide open for China to establish a more consistent presence in the Arctic, likely reflecting a continued strong sense of sovereignty in its north, and has some other options for Arctic partners, including India. The authors further explore several options for an evolution of the Sino-Russian relationship in the Arctic. Two important factors for shaping the outcome will include these countries’ mutual belief that their relationship – not just in the Arctic – is beneficial, and whether economies across the Arctic continue to largely focus on carbon-based energy extraction and mining of minerals key for next generation batteries that can support an energy transition or whether they further diversify, presenting more options for investment in the region. Depending on how these and other factors evolve, the relationship between Russia and China in the Arctic may be somewhat enduring or could be leading toward a breakup by one or both sides. The main take-home message from this work is not to assume that Russia and China will necessarily remain strong Arctic partners, but also to be prepared for the eventuality that they do. Policymakers should recognize the important differences in their Arctic presence and interests. Western Arctic countries are in a stronger position to manage Chinese influence in the Arctic if they do not assume that Beijing and Moscow act with one voice.?

This perspective on geopolitically landscapes may have some relevance to the ongoing global events. It is highly recommended to invest over 30 minutes of your time to listen to it and form your own viewpoint. https://lnkd.in/gHgm8gr2

Interested in understanding what's happening in the Arctic following the recent statements about Greenland? Check out my new chapter on relations between Arctic and non-Arctic states. https://lnkd.in/dJQnhpnE

China's continued investment in the Arctic is certainly advantageous, but it has vulnerabilities and challenges. China's assertive approach in the Arctic is not well received among Arctic nations and other global powers. Its self-identification as a "near-Arctic state" and its active role in Arctic affairs exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly with countries like the United States and Canada, which view China's presence as a strategic challenge. Additionally, a large portion of its' Arctic strategy relies on partnerships, particularly with Russia. This relationship is problematic for western states. But it also ties China's Arctic ambitions to the stability and reliability of this partnership. Any deterioration in Sino-Russian relations could hinder China's Arctic objectives. There are greater financial costs as the Arctic's harsh environment poses significant logistical challenges for infrastructure development and resource extraction. Additionally, environmental mishaps could damage China's reputation resulting in international pushback. This may lead to greater scrutiny from the international community. Increased regulation and pressure from Arctic nations and international bodies could limit China's ability to operate freely in the region. The economic viability of Arctic investments is risky, given the high costs and potential for fluctuating global commodity prices. This uncertainty could impact the long-term sustainability of China's investments in the region See this report from Geopolitical Monitor for a deeper understanding of China Russia relations in the Arctic https://lnkd.in/e3haVJbq

?? China's Arctic Ambitions: Reality vs. Perception ?? China's ambitions in the Arctic are more modest than they appear. Despite grand announcements, the actual investment and influence in the region remain limited, focusing on strategic partnerships and scientific research. #China #Arctic #Geopolitics #MaritimeStrategy #Research ?? China’s Arctic Ambitions Are Less Grand Than They Appear https://lnkd.in/dKe8NQVd

?? China's Arctic Ambitions: Reality vs. Perception ?? China's ambitions in the Arctic are more modest than they appear. Despite grand announcements, the actual investment and influence in the region remain limited, focusing on strategic partnerships and scientific research. #China #Arctic #Geopolitics #MaritimeStrategy #Research ?? China’s Arctic Ambitions Are Less Grand Than They Appear https://lnkd.in/dKe8NQVd