AIlocations Inc的动态

The bond market has been throwing something of a tantrum this week, with benchmark Treasury yields rising to the highest levels in more than a month, amid renewed concerns that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its base lending rate unchanged well into the end of the year. Inflation risks, tied to stronger-than-expected readings for May factory activity, consumer confidence and the broader services sector, are also rising as the job market remains historically tight and the economy continues to defy the bond market's long bet on a near-term recession.

Treasury yields are are spiking on renewed inflation risks, and investors are balking at record auction sizes ahead of a massive wave of new supply expected next month. But the bond market has been wrong before and could be again, with some investors betting that inflation pressures will ease notably over the summer months.

NORTH AMERICA — SAL GUATIERI Treasury markets?are steadier after yesterday’s bloodbath that sent the 10-year yield soaring 18 bps to 4.55% and the 2-year rate pole-vaulting 23 bps to 4.97%, both at the highest levels this year. Following a third straight hot CPI release, fed funds futures have pushed out the inaugural rate cut to September and would now be happy with two cuts this year, a big letdown from the more than six reductions priced in at the turn of the year. U.S.?equity futures?are pointing 0.3% lower after most major indexes fell around 1% yesterday. Currency markets have also settled down with the Canadian dollar at C$1.369. It depreciated 0.8% yesterday, while outperforming on the crosses despite the?Bank of Canada’s?slightly more dovish tilt in the wake of slowing inflation and rising unemployment. According to Governor Macklem, a June rate cut is?“within the realm of possibilities”. Due today, the U.S.?producer price?report (8:30) doesn’t normally attract a crowd, but today’s release could be different given the recent reheating at the consumer level. We look for chunky monthly increases of 0.4% and 0.3% for the headline and core measures in March, lifting the yearly rates to 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively, a little higher than the consensus view.?Keep an eye on medical care costs, which feed directly into the PCE deflator, after the CPI’s component popped 0.5% (though still 2.2% y/y). We currently look for a 0.3% rise in core PCE prices in March, as in the prior month, which may hold the yearly rate at 2.8% but will lift the shorter-term trends. The latter won’t build confidence in the inflation outlook among the FOMC, a concern that was already raised at the March policy meeting. Chair Powell’s “bumpy ride” for inflation could face some major speedbumps on the road to price stability. No landing for the economy might mean no hitting the target with the current configuration of (assumed) restrictive policy rates yet easier financial conditions. We’ll also see weekly?initial jobless claims?that?are likely to remain low given payroll data that suggest the labour market is strengthening rather than slowing. Post CPI and PPI, we’ll hear from Fed officials?Williams?(8:45 am),?Barkin?(10:00)?Collins?(noon) and?Bostic?(1:30 pm). Bostic warned recently that he was leaning toward just one rate cut this year, so if he starts talking about none, or worse putting a hike back on the table, markets will get further indigestion. In the news: “Fed Rate Cuts Are Now a Matter of If, Not Just When:?Another firmer-than-anticipated inflation report delivered a meaningful setback Wednesday to the Federal Reserve’s hope that it could buoy prospects of a so-called soft landing by dialing back some of the past year’s interest-rate increases.”?WSJ “The Hidden Costs of Homeownership Are Skyrocketing:?Rising insurance premiums, property taxes and maintenance costs show little sign of abating.”?WSJ

We are providing you with the Market highlights as per Peter Koutroulakis In April, the markets experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq losing 4.40%, the Dow Jones falling 5.00%, the S&P decreasing by 4.17%, and the TSX losing 2.04% for the month. The month of April saw volatility pickup and a pullback in the markets.?As we outlined in our March market commentary, we expected an increase in volatility and a pullback in the markets in Q2.?The greatest influence on market volatility is the anticipated changes in US central bank policy regarding interest rates which is driven by inflation levels.?We have been outlining since early 2023 that we do not see a lowering of interest rates until mid to late 2024.?We maintain that view and do not see any interest rate cuts until late Q3 or Q4 this year at best.?Remember interest rates are currently at historic 100-year normal levels and unless central banks are confident that inflation will reach their target levels of approximately 2%, interest rates will remain unchanged. The market keeps pushing out expectations of interest rate cuts and reacting negatively each time there is an anticipated delay for anticipated rate cuts. Inflation remains sticky and one or two data points showing inflation may be coming down will not be enough to change interest rate policy.?In the past week alone, we have seen market concerns go from stagflation with no rate cuts and possible rate increase to inflation moderating and possible rate cuts in September with the resulting gyrations in the indexes.?Our overall view remains that we are in a bull market and pullbacks as volatility increases are normal within a healthy bull market and are to be expected. In summary, we maintain a constructive outlook on the market and expect the market to continue higher as 2024 unfolds with pullbacks along the way and increased volatility at times. For the highlight's, please use this link: https://lnkd.in/g2Fz8E33 #investment #investmentstrategies #investmentstrategiesinc #portfoliomanagement #portfoliomanagementservices #wealthmanagement #wealthmanagementadvisor #wealthmanager #financialplanning #stockmarket

USDCAD Commentary USDCAD is weaker which is due primarily to comments from the BoC’s Governor Macklem who made a strong suggestion yesterday that interest rates were coming in the near term, stating that the BoC is very confident that inflation will continue to decline and that the central bank is “getting closer” to delivering a rate cut. The FOMC kept rates on hold yesterday as expected. Commentary was more hawkish than in previous meetings, though not sufficiently so to quell expectations of a September cut. In the press conference Chairman Powell tried to project confidence and often reiterated his view that while progress on inflation isn’t where they need it do be that he was confident that monetary policy was restrictive and just needed more time to do its’ work. I think the takeaway is that the Fed wants to see around 3 months of easing inflation and this will create the confidence they need to deliver a rate cut, and since they get roughly 5 month’s of data and 4 more PCE Inflation reads before the September FOMC meeting there is still enough runway to keep the hopes of the September cut alive. The CME Fedwatch tool reflects this, and the odds of a September cut actually ticked slightly higher with just 44.3% now expecting a hold in September vs. 46.0% pre-Fed. On the data front US ADP was a beat posting at +192K vs. expectations of a read of +180K, and last month’s print of +184K was revised higher to +208K. The manufacturing PMIs were mixed with the ISM’s version posting at 49.2 vs. 50.1 expected and 50.3 previous while the S&P PMI posted at 50 vs. 49.9 previous and expected. 50 is the demarcation line between expansion and contraction. Canada’s Manufacturing PMI posted at 49.4 below expectations of a print of 50.2 and last month’s read of 49.8. For today the economic calendar is a little less exciting with Canadian and US Trade Balance data and the US’s weekly jobless claims report being the highlights. Tomorrow, we get the very important US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Technical Outlook Bias is back to neutral as yesterday’s rally to and through the 1.3750 level stalled out around 1.3780 and then retreated down to 1.3700 post-FOMC. For today support lines are at 1.3701, 1.3662 and 1.3621, while resistance is at 1.3780 followed by 1.3822 and then 1.3860.?For today I am calling a range of 1.3680-1.3740. For broader direction, I think the 1.3750 level approximately the appropriate level for USDCAD for now, and likely until the BoC’s June meeting when interest differential and expectations of path of rates may shift. With that I continue to view moves to 1.3750 with interest and as selling opportunities particularly given my view that by the end of the summer, we’ll see USDCAD correct lower on improved odds of an FOMC rate cut and this will see us return to the 1.3450-1.3550 band and then likely back towards 1.3000 as we get closer to the end of the year but a lot can change between now and then.

I shared some thoughts with Hans Lee over at Livewire Markets on the impact of sticky inflation and potential #RBA rate hikes. It’s not an easy time for Australian #investors. The #economy is clearly slowing and another hike is not going to help. #Equities look stretched at current valuations so we’re looking at a more cautious approach to #investing. #wealthmanagement #economics #assetallocation

Despite January's CPI data for the US, inflation has dropped faster than many were predicting, and rate cuts may still be on table near mid-year. How have markets historically reacted to a dovish pivot? Our Global Bonds team shares their thoughts ?? https://bit.ly/42JHQHJ #JHI #JanusHenderson #BrighterFutureTogether #US #JHInsights #Bonds #FixedIncome #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #InvestingInvolvesRisk

Despite January's CPI data for the US, inflation has dropped faster than many were predicting, and rate cuts may still be on table near mid-year. How have markets historically reacted to a dovish pivot? Our Global Bonds team shares their thoughts ?? https://bit.ly/42JHQHJ #JHI #JanusHenderson #BrighterFutureTogether #US #JHInsights #Bonds #FixedIncome #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #InvestingInvolvesRisk

Despite January's CPI data for the US, inflation has dropped faster than many were predicting, and rate cuts may still be on table near mid-year. How have markets historically reacted to a dovish pivot? Our Global Bonds team shares their thoughts ?? https://bit.ly/42JHQHJ #JHI #JanusHenderson #BrighterFutureTogether #US #JHInsights #Bonds #FixedIncome #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #InvestingInvolvesRisk

Despite January's CPI data for the US, inflation has dropped faster than many were predicting, and rate cuts may still be on table near mid-year. How have markets historically reacted to a dovish pivot? Our Global Bonds team shares their thoughts ?? https://bit.ly/42JHQHJ #JHI #JanusHenderson #BrighterFutureTogether #US #JHInsights #Bonds #FixedIncome #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #InvestingInvolvesRisk