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ACADEMY SITREP – ISRAEL PREPARES FOR IMMINENT IRANIAN RETALIATORY STRIKE https://lnkd.in/g3dBq9_b April 12, 2024 What has Happened: -As we have reported in our previous two?SITREPs, Iran had vowed to strike back against Israel following the April 1st?airstrike that killed several people including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was in charge of Iranian paramilitary operations in Syria and Lebanon. -Israel and the U.S. are on high alert for a “significant” attack by Iran that could take place in the next two days. -There is concern that Iran could try to launch a direct attack against Israel from Iranian soil, or via its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. -On Wednesday, President Biden indicated that the U.S. is prepared to protect Israel against any Iranian attack and has reiterated that U.S. support for Israel is “ironclad.” -In addition, on Thursday General Kurilla (head of U.S. Central Command) visited Israel to discuss coordinating preparations/any response to an attack with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. -Khamenei has not yet decided on a course of action for Iran and is clearly worried that a direct attack could fail due to Israel’s defenses and result in a massive retaliation by Israel against Iran. -The U.S., Iran, and Israel want to avoid a major war in the region and foreign ministers in Europe have tried to dissuade Iran from attacking Israel. Why it Matters: To read analysis from our Geopolitical Intelligence Group see the full report at: https://lnkd.in/g3dBq9_b #academysecurities #missiondriven #geopolitical #geopolitics #capitalmarktets #debtcapitalmarkets #ipo #rates #macro #geointelligence #iran #pakistan #hamas #israel #syria #iraq #venezuela #yemen Academy Asset Management Academy Securities Academy Ventures

???? Exciting News Alert ???? President Ebrahim Raisi has declared that the recent strike in the Syrian capital will 'not go unpunished'. This bold statement shows his commitment to maintaining stability and security in the region. ?? Prediction: With President Raisi's strong stance on holding those responsible for the strike to account, we can expect to see swift and decisive action taken in the coming days. This move will solidify Iran's position as a key player in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. ?? General Commentary: The escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to highlight the complexities and challenges faced by leaders in the region. President Raisi's firm response demonstrates his unwavering commitment to upholding national security and protecting Iranian interests abroad. ?? Key Takeaways: 1. President Raisi's assertion of not tolerating the strike in Syria aligns with Iran's broader regional strategy to assert its influence and protect its allies. 2. This event underscores the need for strong leadership and a clear geopolitical vision in navigating the volatile dynamics of the Middle East. 3. The international community will be closely watching how Iran responds, with implications for regional stability and global security. ?? In conclusion, President Raisi's unequivocal statement sends a clear message that Iran will defend its interests and hold those who threaten them accountable. Stay tuned for further developments on this evolving situation, as it continues to shape the future of the Middle East. ?? #Iran #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #PresidentRaisi #GlobalSecurity

After Iran’s recent strike, tensions in the #MiddleEast are at an all-time high. Yet, amid this turmoil, there seems to be a surprising development in relations between #Iran and #Israel, Daniel Silverberg and Elena McGovern reflect in this week's commentary. As we await further developments, investors and companies should take note of several critical takeaways. Read the article to learn about this evolving situation and its potential impacts. #GlobalSecurity #ForeignPolicy #NationalSecurity https://lnkd.in/guVCkeen

Hizballah's Sec-Gen is dead, and at least one source is reporting that an IRGC general was killed in the same strike. How does Hizballah respond? My short-term bets: -a leader more radical than Nasrallah takes charge of Hizballah -escalation of the conflict continues, although not necessarily through conventional means. (I certainly wouldn't want to be working at an Israeli embassy anywhere right now.) However, over the long-term, does this really change the Middle East's dynamics? My bet is "no". Hizballah's power may be diminished in the near-term, but this strike will not be decisive strategically. https://lnkd.in/g6xbiUwH

The deaths of three US soldiers in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants on a US base in Jordan risk further inflaming the on-going crisis in the Middle East, experts have warned. A former CIA director called the weekend strike on the US base a 'dangerous escalation' in tensions that have already engulfed the region following Hamas's October 7 terror attack on southern Israel, and Israel's subsequent assault on Gaza. After he warned that the US 'shall respond' to the strike, analysts say US president Joe Biden must be calculated in his retaliation and strike a balance between pleasing those at home who want to see a show of force, and averting a wider conflict. If the White House is not strong enough in its response, experts say Iran's proxies will remain undeterred and continue to carry out attacks. Too strong, and Biden risks plunging the Middle East into a deeper conflict. Further escalation, one expert warns, 'would bring the Middle East to the precipice of a regional war', while another said they expect a 'expect a serious escalation around the corner.' But in doing so, Biden also runs the risk of playing into the 'optimal scenario' for Vladimir Putin, whose war in Ukraine would benefit greatly from a wider conflict... !!!

Top goals left in Gaza: Degrade terror infrastructure under Khan Yunis, strike at top Hamas leadership, kill/capture field operatives; Also: Can Israel take on Hezbollah separately from Iran? I appeared on I24 this morning (click link below for video, and to sign up for email updates direct to your inbox), to discuss the latest developments in the multi-arena conflict (click image above for the video). I made the following points: The top goals going forward in Gaza are to degrade Hamas's terror infrastructure underneath Khan Yunis in southern Gaza, strike at the top leadership, and continue to kill/capture field operatives. Unlike much of northern Gaza, Hamas is defending its positions in southern Gaza through hit-and-run attacks, emerging from underground, firing RPGs or AKs, and vanishing. It's always a challenge for Western industrial militaries to deal with. This necessitates close quarter combat and is the riskiest stage of the war for the IDF forces on the ground. Israel and Hezbollah remain on a collision course. The big strategic question for Israel, after it completes the main high intensity phase of the war in Gaza is: Can Israel begin to deal with the Lebanon arena separately from the Iranian arena? Has the U.S. decided to take its pressure on Israel behind closed doors? https://lnkd.in/dvKZme2Y

So, Tel Aviv opted for a direct strike on Beirut—a notable escalation, given that the Lebanese capital has not been targeted since the eruption of this round of hostilities on October 8, 2023, and due to the target, Fouad Shukr, a Hezbollah's chief of military operations. Obviously, this would not have de-escalated hostilities from their current level, but there was a slight chance to avoid further escalation and maintain the current tempo instead. This morning's strike on Tehran, however, changes all of that. The assassination of a state visitor on Iranian soil is an utterly dangerous security breach from Iran's perspective. It further signals that no one is safe in Iran; not even its highest leadership (not to mention the humiliation the IRGC, the entity responsible for Haniyeh's protection, is experiencing right now). How might Iran respond? It remains an open question, but whatever that response is, it will either involve or directly affect Hezbollah's calculations and operational conduct. Under normal circumstances, Iran could have tolerated a delayed response to an attack on its soil, but under the current circumstances, and given the continuous erosion of its credibility, Iran may find itself forced to respond quickly one way or another to yesterday’s attack. As a final note, Haniyeh's assassination undermines months of efforts to reach a ceasefire. If you target your opponents' political leadership, with whom do you wish to engage in diplomacy? Yesterday's assassination might strengthen the most extremist voices within Hamas and push toward a war to the end, as it seems that this—and not a diplomatic solution—is what Netanyahu is practically opting for. So, a diplomatic settlement to the immense humanitarian disaster and slaughter in Gaza is off the table right now. In the short run, the impact of Haniyeh's assassination will be felt, but in the long run, it might not be that significant. (After all, individuals, regardless of how charismatic and influential they are, are replaceable; and Hamas has proven its ability to absorb the assassination of its leaders before and survive.)

US: Attack Rafah instead of Iran?? “Egyptian officials tell a Qatari outlet that the US has accepted Israel’s plan for an operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, in return for not carrying out a large strike in Iran in response to Tehran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack.” US denies it, of course (as it represents yet another war crime). Just remember that they also shamelessly still deny the mountain of Israeli war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing and starvation (as instructed by the most compulsive liars in history). So, yes, it is reason to assume that the accounts of the Egyptian officials are correct. US have their criminal-president election coming up and obviously cannot get mixed up in a war with Iran on top of things (and possibly the rest of the world) before November. Better to offer an easy replacement pray to ease the Israeli constant hunger for blood and destruction. Why not rather attack someone more familiar: ???? Who’s displaced, tormented and starving ???? Who cannot respond to your fire. ???? Who have no army ???? Who cannot escape the walls of the death arena ????Who’s suffering and death have become so normalized the world won’t blink an eye to the comming slaughter of thousands upon thousands of their children and families stuck in piles between dust and blood. ????Who the western world would willingly sacrifice on the alter of their own comfort and safety while they silently watch them die slowly on their screens?

NEO Morning Observer: Our initial assessment of the Israeli raid is that it was very anemic and not the raid that was suggested by not only the month long preparation, the worry over the intelligence leak, but also underwhelming in terms of Israel's own statements which led to justifiable speculation that Israel would attempt to go for a decapitation strike. Israel's attacks on HAMAS and Hezbollah have been far more effective than this raid and in 2019-2020 we saw operations in southern Iran which took more tangible tolls and represented far more effective hits than what was demonstrated on Friday evening/ Saturday morning. Israel, if it would like to avoid further conflict with Iran needed to do damage that made Iran reconsider the idea of striking back, now we believe that Iran can calculate that responding with a large missile barrage will only bring a minor or very sustainable response. We remain as neutral Observers in this conflict yet, in terms of our knowledge and work in conflict history, it is clear that Israel and/ or Iran have not yet pushed the level of response that will in fact create the environment for peace through means of hesitant consideration of the consequences of greater or even equal responses. What we are seeing is the same strike mentality that Israel used with HAMAS in the past and has been eloquently referred to as mowing the lawn, it might look good but it'll be back.