A growing number of economists say the U.S. housing market is facing an actual correction rather than just a flat-lining in prices. An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently weighed in with a report saying that price declines of 15% to 20% are "plausible," -- although the economist, Enrique Martínez-García, did note that represented "a pessimistic scenario."
Other analysts look at the record run-up in home prices during the COVID pandemic and say a drop of 20 percent or more looms in the near future.
“We’re at very, very frothy levels right now,” says James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Bank, the global financial institution. “Prices do tend to overshoot to the downside.”
Not everyone sees a dramatic downturn. The National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders say that a shortage of homes for sale will prop up prices even in the face of soaring mortgage rates and dwindling affordability.
But housing pessimists predict a sharp decline in home values. “For?affordability?to come back to 2020 [levels] at current interest rates, housing prices have to decline more than 40 percent,” says Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO and chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates.
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is it a good idea to buy a home now, when interest rates are all high?