Virus job losses dwarf 2009 crisis

The 7th #ILO Covid Monitor "shows the uneven impact on different economic, geographic, and labour market sectors. It highlights concerns of a “K-shaped recovery”, whereby those sectors and workers hit hardest could be left behind in the recovery, leading to increasing inequality, unless corrective measures are taken...a human-centred recovery for #BuildingBackBetter, prioritizing #employment, income and social protection, workers’ rights and social dialogue" is necessary. "If we want a lasting, sustainable and inclusive recovery, this is the path policy-makers must commit to.” https://lnkd.in/dxQ9u5x

At first pass, the suggestion that China and the US will emerge from the pandemic in an analogous economic position seems completely counterintuitive because they have each responded in such dramatically different ways. The IMF has however concluded that best economic results will come where countries put aside worries about inflation and the possibility of excessive stimulus. In its most recent forecast for the global economy, the IMF, whose judgement generally seems sound and apolitical, predicts that by 2022 recoveries in the US and China will see their economies no more than 1.5 per cent smaller than PROJECTED before the pandemic, with other advanced economies 2.5% short of their pre-pandemic predictions. Bearing in mind some exceedingly dark headlines for a number of months now, that feels a pretty positive outcome if it transpires to be the case.

Interesting analysis from the IMF. Unsurprisingly China’s economy will make up lost ground fasted. Surprising US also included, but goes to show how economic resilience to lockdowns (even if later than others), size and scale of fiscal support have proven critical to positive recovery forecasts.

How big are the pandemic implications? Yesterday's report from ILO (International Labour Organization) showed the data, which totally overshoot my expectations... a) In 2020, 8.8% of global working hours were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. b) Working-hour losses in 2020 were approximately four times greater than during the global financial crisis in 2009. c) They've also projected some scenarious. The optimistic scenario forecasts a 1.3% decline. It takes time to recover...

What’s ahead for the global economy? Chief Economist Gita Gopinath presents the latest World Economic Outlook Update with revised growth forecasts for the world, regions and countries. #WEO #LinkedInLive

"The latest figures show that 8.8 per cent of global working hours were lost for the whole of last year ... equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. This is approximately four times greater than the number lost during the 2009 global financial crisis." The negative impacts have not been equally distributed and some groups, such as women and younger workers have been hardest hit. The report highlights two main issues apart from political influence: The out of touch verbose discussions on "recovery plans" and the continued lag to promote imminently needed change for the global masses to survive. Borrowing the words of WHO's Ghebreyesus, "Numbers can make us numb to what they represent: every death is someone's parent, someone's partner, someone's child, someone's friend." This also applies to morbidity and deaths directly or indirectly linked to harmful, blanket COVID-19 "interventions" that destroy livelihoods across much of the globe. https://lnkd.in/gBNck8P

Sobering numbers in this report from International Labour Organization. COVID caused working hour losses equivalent to some 255M full-time jobs in 2020. Then reflect on the analysis that 46M of these jobs have been assessed as being dependent on international aviation. (ATAG) And as ILO say, "Tourism and migration are both critical to the functioning of many developing and emerging economies." Good reasons why supporting aviation's restart and recovery in support of UN #SDGs is a focus of our on-going work The International Civil Aviation Organization as well as being an economic and social imperative.

Just a few facts to outline the human and financial severity of the current pandemic: 1. ) (...) "In 2020, 8.8 per cent of global working hours were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. (...)" 2.) (...) "Working‐hour losses were particularly high in Latin America and the Caribbean, Southern Europe and Southern Asia. Working-hour losses in 2020 were approximately four times greater than during the global financial crisis in 2009.“ (...) 3.) (...) "Loosing approximately USD 3.7 trillion or 4.4% of 2019 GDP is just not an option. (...)" We have to change our business hypothesis and build resilient, sustainable businesses. Innovation is not only about ?megatrends“, innovation must be a response to "megaproblems" with focus on assuring access to energy, food and water for all living beings.

COVID-19 continues to destroy hundreds of millions of jobs around the world with severe consequences on most vulnerable groups such as youth and women. We call for a #GlobalAction to adjust our Work-Integrated Learning (#WIL) programs to prioritize employment during these difficult times. #Jobs, #WIL, #youthunemployment https://lnkd.in/dV5fEED