US economy posts solid growth

U.S. Economic Growth & CRE Implications??? The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q3 2024, slightly lower than the previous quarter’s 3.0%. However, consumer spending and business investments remain strong, with consumer confidence recently surging to 108.7.??? Despite some uncertainties, the International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for the U.S. to 2.8% this year, making it a key driver of global economic momentum. As the Fed is expected to initiate rate cuts in November, commercial real estate (CRE) investors should stay alert for potential impacts on asset values and financing conditions. #EconomicGrowth #CommercialRealEstate #CREInvesting

A fascinating contradiction, right? On paper, things look solid - 2.8% GDP growth is no joke, especially when you consider the current global economic uncertainty. But the GDP doesn’t tell the whole story. Please allow me to unleash a bit on this: The US economy is growing despite some hefty issues. National debt has skyrocketed, with government spending outpacing revenue. This level of debt doesn’t just chill on the sidelines - it impacts everything from interest rates to inflation. We have been seeing this big time in 2024. Every time the government borrows more, it’s effectively buying time - to me this feels very much like a company issuing more stock to keep the lights on. We've all seen those stories play out too. Inflation has come down somewhat from its peak, but it’s still not fabulous is it? Add to that an employment landscape that’s far from perfect despite the headlines. We all know what is happening on the other side. Unemployment is officially low, but many are in lower-paying or part-time roles they wouldn’t have chosen otherwise, not to mention the constant tech layoffs. It’s creating a workforce where people might have jobs, but they’re not in positions that offer long-term stability or growth. So, why is the economy still growing? A few reasons. First, consumer spending has stayed strong, though that’s often on the back of credit. Plus, big companies are pulling in profits, especially in sectors like tech and finance, thanks to strategic layoffs and cost-cutting that keep their bottom lines looking good even in turbulent times. The “strong economy” narrative is true in a way, but it’s kind of like a beautiful fa?ade over a building with serious structural issues. It’s functional for now, but without addressing these underlying factors like debt, inflation, and a wobbly job market - it’s a situation that could turn precarious faster than anyone expects. #GDP #economy

The US economy continues to cruise along. Relentless growth despite so many challenges. Today's GDP report showed the economy grew at a solid pace of 2.8% -- driven in large part by plenty of shopping from consumers. Even though affordability remains a real problem, some economists say it increasingly looks like the Fed pulled off the once-improbable soft landing. And that should mean more wage gains for workers still adjusting to higher prices. Read more on the apparent soft landing and the GDP report from Bryan Mena https://lnkd.in/eUqja9qd

The U.S. economy is showing few signs of slowing down. Growth clocked in at 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the latest GDP data from the Commerce Department, thanks in large part to strong consumer and government spending. Now all eyes will be on the jobs report this Friday to see how the labor side of the economy performed in October. Read my latest here → https://lnkd.in/eXNrjQsb

GDP remained buoyant in third quarter. US real gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, just a tad below the second quarter's 3% growth, according to the preliminary estimate. Gross domestic product is our broadest measure of economic activity and reflects the nation's overall domestic production of goods and services. Consumer spending strength has powered GDP growth recently. In the third quarter it soared 3.7%. Rather than slackening in the face of weakening labor market conditions and financial stresses for some families, the third quarter number was the strongest since the first quarter of 2022. Purchases of durable goods rose the fastest, but consumption (by far the larger *share* of total spending) also rose at a healthy clip. Consumers accounted for an impressive 2.5 percentage points of the overall GDP growth. Federal government defense spending also grew strongly. Gross private domestic investment was weak, dragged down by residential building. Imports subtracted the most from GDP. This is not unexpected, since imports tend to rise rapidly when consumer spending is strong. Part of the strength of consumer spending despite headwinds can be attributed to ongoing healthy growth of disposable personal income, as well as gains in household and stock market equity. Real disposable income has risen more than 3% in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year. But that decelerated to 1.6% in the third quarter, causing the savings rate to dip to 4.8%. While that is in line with "normal" savings rates, the slowing--along with other drag factors I mentioned above--is consistent with my view that some deceleration of consumer spending and GDP will occur in coming quarters. There was also good news on inflation, with the PCE index rising at just a 1.5% annual rate, down from 2.5% in the second quarter. Tomorrow we get data on personal income and outlays for October, which will tell us whether in fact deceleration is finally emerging. US growth has continued to outpace expectations, largely on the back of a consumer who just won't call it quits. At this point, the biggest uncertainty is the outcome of next week's nail-biter election, and how consumers and businesses respond to the anticipated policies of the eventual winner. This is the first estimate and will be revised twice before we have the final official number for the third quarter. Revisions are a regular part of the estimation process, because some data are only available with a considerable lag. #GDP #grossdomesticproduct #consumerspending

Today's GDP report: ? Real #GDP rose at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3 slower than Q2 ? #Consumer spending alone accounted for 2.5% of the GDP gains as they bought #vehicles, electronics, appliances ? The #housing market slipped back into #recession as #residential investment contracted for the second consecutive quarter and #mortgage rates moved back above 7% ? #Government spending accelerated as #defense outlays surged at a double-digit pace in the third quarter, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2020 ? The #trade deficit widened as both #exports and #imports surged at a double-digit rate ? The GDP deflator, a broad measure of #inflation came in at 1.8% its weakest pace since Q4 2023, further deceleration would give the #Fed comfort knowing that it is achieving the price stability it has been seeking Bottom line: The US #economy continues to stand out among its peers as the Fed raised rates and cooled the pace of #inflation.?We still expect two quarter-point cuts by year-end but risks have risen that the Fed could skip a December #ratecut.

Eventually, those calling a recession will be right; it is not that day and this year is just not the year. A slowdown will happen, it's inevitable. But the economy hums along, growing thanks to consumer spending being up and exports booming. Federal spending was also up which is a sugar rush and will not be long term sustainable...but it's not holding the economy up by itself which is great news. Joshua Brown posted the 2 year anniversary of the unanimous 100% call for a recession within the year - https://lnkd.in/dSEs6nZw - the years have come and gone - maybe there should be a holiday that day - we can call it economic vibes day or something like that. What do you think?

GDP numbers for Q3 2024 just came in and there's a lot to digest. Here's my take ?? Q3’s GDP numbers are the green light many in B2B SaaS have been waiting for, but it’s a narrow path. ?????????????????? ???? ???????? ???? ??.??%—and with ?????? ?????????????? ??.??%, the economy is resilient. But as interest rates stay elevated, navigating these waters means a strategic focus on resilience and impact. Here’s how to make the most of this economic climate: 1?? ???????????????? ???????????????? ??????????: Consumer spending rose 3.7%, marking its strongest pace since Q1 2023. For SaaS, this is fuel. Leverage this by targeting productivity gains and efficiency tools that match what’s driving spending in business. 2?? ?????????????? ?????????????????????? ???? ??????????????: Equipment spending jumped by 11.1%, while investment in physical structures dropped. It’s clear that firms are doubling down on digital and operational efficiency. SaaS products in AI, cloud, and automation are in a prime spot—capitalize on this trend by positioning your tools as essential for remote and cost-effective work. 3?? ?????? ?????????????????? ?????????? ??????????????????????: With inflation moderate, firms can focus on growth. SaaS leaders, this is your time to lean into solutions that cut costs and power up digital transformation for enterprise clients. ?? ?????? ????????????????: In this economy, there’s no room for scattershot spending. If you want to thrive, make every dollar count. Think lean growth, efficient deployment, and customer-centric value. What’s your take on these numbers? How will you pivot or lean in this quarter? #GDP #SaaS #B2B #Economy #Finance

??.??. ???? ?????? ???????????? ???????????????? ???????? ????????????'?? ?????????????? The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, surpassing the previous quarter's figures. This growth also marked an improvement compared to the 2.4% annual growth rate seen during the last economic expansion from 2010 to 2019. https://lnkd.in/dFevDShU Consumer spending was strong with real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasing at an annualized rate of 3.7%. In addition to consumer spending, investment spending contributed positively to the third quarter's economic growth. Real business spending on equipment saw a notable rise, climbing more than 11% during the quarter. "We look for the U.S. economy to continue to expand in coming quarters, although not quite as strongly as it has recently. Policy changes in the wake of next week's election could potentially lead to modifications of our forecast," Wells Fargo economists wrote in the note. "We may make some changes to our forecast once we know the results of the election." #GDP #economy #USeconomy

?? US Q3 GDP: Sustained Economic Outperformance Continues ?? The US economy demonstrated impressive resilience in Q3, expanding 2.8% as consumer strength and business investment drove growth above long-term trends. Key Growth Drivers: Consumer Spending: +3.7% (strongest since Q1 2023) Nonresidential Investment: +3.3% Business Equipment: +11.1% (productivity enhancing) Federal Spending: +9.7% (Defense +14.9%) Broad-Based Growth Metrics: Real Final Sales: +3.0% Gross Domestic Purchases: +3.3% Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers: +3.5% Private Domestic Purchasers: +3.2% Long-Term Context: Past nine quarters have averaged 2.9% growth, significantly above the 1.8% long-run trend. This outperformance reflects: Full employment conditions Real wage gains exceeding inflation Sustained business investment Robust government spending Analysis: The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, maintaining growth well above trend despite higher rates. Strong consumer spending, backed by real wage gains, and significant business investment in productivity-enhancing equipment suggest underlying economic resilience. The diverse growth metrics all point to broad-based expansion across sectors. While I initially advocated for a 25bps cut in September rather than the 50bps implemented, the current data suggests the Fed may still achieve its soft landing objective. The economy's controlled deceleration while maintaining above-trend growth demonstrates a delicate balance. With inflation moderating and growth remaining robust, the Fed's aggressive approach could prove prescient in supporting this transition to sustainable expansion. #GDP #Economy #Growth #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Business #Stocks #FederalReserve #Inflation #Investment #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning