US adds over half a million jobs

Many CEOs blamed the "macroeconomic downturn" for the tens of thousands of layoffs they completed over the last few months. But there's not actually really many signs of an economic downturn—except for pessimistic CEOs. GDP growth has been positive the last two quarters and the U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January. CEOs are going to talk us into a recession, all while getting rewarded by investors for being risk-averse. Meta's share price is up 75% since #layoffs were announced. Amazon's is up 25% since it cut #jobs . Maybe this is the downside of having a country obsessed with big #tech companies who don't really need actual people to make money. https://lnkd.in/e_wfweAe

Despite confusing jobs report, one message is clear: hot labor market, now and in the coming months. Due to potential seasonality adjustment and other factors, we were warned to expect a confusing jobs report today, and indeed it was confusing. We updated our Labor Market Tightness Index (see chart below), which also relies on other sources, and shows that the labor market remains super tight. What don’t we know well? How strong are economic and job growth. But today’s huge job growth numbers, even if mostly noise, should reduce any forecaster’s likelihood of an imminent recession. What do we know well? Despite interest rates sharply rising for a over a year, the labor market is still very tight. And there is a growing recognition that the labor market is likely to remain so in the coming months. The voices calling for the Fed to not raise interest rates, are the same ones who called the Fed not to raise rates in late 2021. They probably lost some credibility within the Fed and are unlikely to be very influential. In sum: the future trajectory of Fed’s rates just moved up. #labormarket #jobs #laborshortage #wages #inflation #federalreserve #interestrates

Good news is bad news for the economy and after today's blockbuster Job Report I think Chair Powell is regretting what he said two days ago. The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, a 8 standard deviation vs consensus estimate and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, which is the lowest level since 1969. This big increase has also been helped by seasonal factors, but this is still a huge surprise. The solid report will likely not be welcomed by the Federal Reserve Board which is looking for job gains and wage growth to slow to further reduce high inflation and bolster its plan to pause its aggressive interest rate hike campaign in coming months. To summarize: * Non-farm payrolls:?+517,000 vs. +188,000 expected * Unemployment rate:?3.4% vs. 3.6% expected * Average hourly earnings, month-over-month:?+0.3% vs +0.3% expected * Average hourly earnings, year-over-year:?+4.4% vs. +4.3% expected In my opinion markets got too complacent during the last two days and I think the bond sell off and the Nasdaq appreciation were overdone. The 10Y rate has popped back up 3.5% reversing the sell off of the past two days. I wish Chair Powell will nail his Soft-Landing call.... but I am not very optimistic about it. Please feel free to comment. I always value the opinion of my followers. #economics #economy #investing The Wall Street Journal #marketing CNBC #technology #management #realestate Bloomberg #venturecapital #portfoliomanagement #markets #finance LinkedIn

Reading that BLS job gains surged in January, it seems that even a cold Winter couldn’t cool a ret-hot jobs market. ? January payrolls surged by 517,000, more than twice the 185,000 expected by markets with gains broad-based.?Despite aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March, job gains were even hotter than the average monthly gains of 401,000 last year.?It confirms Fed Chairman Powell’s belief that “we have a long way to go”. ? Other indicators sizzled. The unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%, a 54-year low, another sign that the jobs market is far from rebalancing.??Along with this, hours worked increased to 34.7 from 34.4 (was 34.3), highlighting the need for businesses to increase their payrolls, after having stretched the hours their employees work. December job openings rose to 11 million with the ratio of?job openings per unemployed worker back up to 1.9, well above the Fed’s implicit target of 1.0, further highlighting businesses’ unquenched need for more workers. ? The report did give markets something to chew on. More people entered the labor force, pushing the labor force participation rate up 0.1% to 62.4%, though a 45 and ? year low?and?still below its pre-crisis rate of 63.3%.?Wage gains also softened further in January. Hourly wages were up an expected 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year gains moderating to 4.4%.?That said, the jobs market still faces stubbornly high wage pressures, with year-over-year wage gains almost twice its historic average of 2.5%. ? While it’s nice to see more people getting jobs with fatter paychecks, it’s hard to ignore the fact that those wage gains have been negative when adjusted for inflation.?Including January, they will have been negative for almost two years.?That leaves household purchasing power squeezed. ? A continued hot jobs market remains a concern for the Fed who indicated they are easing their foot off the pedal.?Since they indicated more moderation, they may stick with a 25 bps hike in March.?Either way, still-hot pricing pressure on the back of unfettered business demand for workers who remain elusive means our forecast of 5.00 to 5.25% Fed funds exit rate by May seems increasingly likely.?It also means the Fed will keep rates at their exit rate higher for longer.?This may be a good time for markets to rethink their expectation of a rate cut later this year.

US employment rose by 517,000 in January, labor force participation increased slightly and wage growth barely budged. Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services led the gains - This is no fluke in the data ??The Institute for Supply Management PMI report released today also shows the services sector grew in January - way above consensus expectations - after contracting in December. Take the headline number with a grain of salt since the January reports are subjected to a bunch of annual revisions. I expect a large downward revision in the January employment figure. This is still a very positive jobs report. However, given the downward growth trajectory for most of 2022 and weakness in other economic indicators, I don’t expect much has changed. Manufacturing is contracting but the services sector is still too hot. ?? So what does it all mean going forward? ?? ??No recession YET ?? ??The Federal Reserve Board will consider that the inflation battle isn’t won YET ?? the thinking will likely be wage growth is still very high, there is still too much upward pressure on wages. ??This report is likely to send yields higher. For housing market participants, it means mortgage rates could come back up into the 6% range. Yesterday’s bonus dip below 6% would have been very short-lived ?? #jobs #employment #inflation #housing #mortgage #recession

Surging jobs but not surging wages - an update from?Stephanie Aliaga?and myself. The January #jobs report came in much stronger-than-expected, showing a resilient labor market with strong momentum in filling job openings and contributing to the lowest #unemployment rate we’ve seen since May 1969 at 3.4%. Still, even at these low levels of unemployment, tightness is not contributing to a rebound in wage #inflation, with wage growth moderating to 0.3% for all workers and 0.2% for private production and non-supervisory workers. Among the highlights: - Nonfarm payrolls surged by 517,000, well above the consensus expectation of 188K, with gains strongest in leisure and hospitality, healthcare and professional business services. Upward revisions also added a total of 71,000 payrolls to November and December. - Surprisingly, the average workweek jumped to 34.7 hours from 34.4, which may reflect the impact of fewer workers calling in sick in January and mild weather compared to seasonal trends. - January saw annual population revisions to the household survey making it difficult to compare month-to-month gains, but the unemployment rate of 3.4% reflects the BLS’s best estimates on the labor market and points to strength in the household survey as well. - On a year-over-year basis, wage growth has now fallen to 4.4% after peaking at 5.9% in March of 2022. Overall, the headline figures on this report may overstate the strength in the labor market. There is a lot of variability in the jobs data, particularly as January has been especially prone to Covid effects in recent years. The overall mosaic on the labor market still points to cooling labor demand and wage growth, and some pockets of weakness with increased layoff announcements. However, the labor market is clearly still a bastion of strength in an economy with elevated recession risks. The Fed should be cheered by the continued strength in job growth without rising wage inflation, but continued labor market tightness may also give them confidence that they can keep policy tighter for longer. While bond yields pushed higher following this morning’s release, we still think it’s an open question as to whether the Fed raises rates for a third time this year in May. With inflation coming down and aggregate demand cooling across the economy, the Fed would be wise to exercise patience and assess the lagged impact of the enormous monetary tightening already done. If subsequent jobs and inflation reports continue to reflect this cooling, hopes of a Fed pause after March may not be dashed.

?? Absolute blow out US employment and Service Sector activity ?? ?? The US posted 517k new jobs vs expected 188k. January data was revised higher from 223k to 260k. Average hourly earnings 0.3% month on month, more hours worked...Unemp down to 3.4% ?? Services PMI shot up from 50.5 to 55.2, firmly into expansion territory. 1?? First order effect - higher bond yields 2?? Second - stronger US Dollar 3?? Third - weaker equities but this is mixed as strong growth helps earnings and markets are focused on earnings right now ?? The Fed isn'g going to be able to stop here. They told us yesterday they were data dependent. Well here is some data and it is ?? Join our investing community on Discord for high quality market intel and what this all means for asset markets. Link in the comments section... #markets #jobs #economy #investing #nfp

My jaw literally dropped! We just had a gigantic nonfarm payroll print (517K vs 188K expected), mostly driven by the services sector. But even interest rate sensitive sector like construction saw 25K job gains in January. A separate household survey shows 894K job gains, that is despite tens of thousands of job cuts announced by tech companies amid weakening economic activity. While there maybe some seasonal factor that contributed to some anomalies, it is hard to argue against the strength of the labour market. The US unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% which is the lowest in 53 years. The good news is that labour participation increased and wage growth moderated. But that disinflationary aspect in the report is unlikely to offset concerns on a tight labour market and persistent wage pressures. The Fed officials have yet another reason to stick with "no rate cut this year" guidance. That said, financial markets continue to bet on two rate cuts later this year. In fact, not even a full 25 basis point rate increase is priced in for the FOMC meeting in March. Ultimately the good job figures times more hours worked together with slower inflation means more real disposable income in the economy. But that means the Fed may keep policy at restrictive levels for longer, which increases the probability of policy mistake further down the road. The soft landing versus hard landing debate is going to intensify. All we can say is that monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. The relative strength of the US economy is a reason we have been more bullish on UK gilts than US treasuries. I was a guest on BNN Bloomberg in Toronto yesterday to discuss central banks, the global economy and corporate earnings. You can watch back here: https://lnkd.in/evsDCdY6 https://lnkd.in/evaabQWU RBC Brewin Dolphin RBC RBC Wealth Management #usnfp #usemployment #federalreserve #markets #tvinterview

The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January — more than double the 190,000 forecasters anticipated. ?? The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest level in over a half-century. ?? The numbers are the latest sign of a hot labor market despite aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve to cool it down. Read more from Courtenay Brown on Axios ??

Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US started the year with a robust labor market. There were 517,000 jobs added in January, much higher than the revised 260,000 jobs added in December. And the unemployment rate not only remained low, but it’s now the lowest unemployment rate in just over 50 years at 3.4%. The last time it was at this level was in May 1969. Read on to learn more about how the labor market was doing in January. For more stories like this, follow Insider Business. #labormarket #unemployment #jobsreport