TSMC results ease chip concerns

$TSM, the primary fab for both $NVDA and $AAPL, reported strong results and guidance this morning. As it relates to Nvidia, High Performance Computing (HPC) revenue at TSMC grew 11% q/q in Q3 versus 6% in Q3 of 2023. In addition, TSM mentioned robust AI demand for the second half of 2024. As it relates to Apple, Smartphone revenue at TSM only grew 16% q/q versus 33% a year ago. Also smartphone was not mentioned as a driver for the second half of 2024 while AI was. Current capex for 2024 which is related to expected growth in future years, was cut to slightly higher than $30B versus the prior guide of $30-32B despite revenue guidance being raised to 30% from 25% for CY24. Taken all together, to me this implies to be bullish on Nvidia for the next 3-6 months given TSM’s revenue guidance and Nvidia’s comments about “insane demand” but to expect slower than expected growth in all of 2025 for Nvidia given TSMC’s lower capex guidance for 2024. I still believe Nvidia’s large hyperscaler customers will need to digest their enormous AI spend over 2023 and 2024 during 2025. This is what the hyperscalers did in 2022 following the spending surge during Covid in 2020 and 2021. For Apple, I believe this is another sign that the AI driven upgrade cycle for smartphones may happen over a longer period of time than expected. This is probably in large part due to the staggered geographic rollout of AI features on smartphones, with the US likely on October 28th and China only next year. Below I have put the exact wording from excerpts from the TSM conference call this morning that I thought were most interesting with my comments in parentheses. “Our business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand… We continue to observe extremely robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout the second half of 2024 (notice they did not mention smartphone)… We now forecast the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year and account for mid-teens percentage of our total revenue in 2024… We now forecast our full year revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms (vs prior guide of 25%).” "The unique growth of PC and smartphone is still in a low single digit (in response to a question on non-AI demand in 2025 for mobile and PC)...” “We now expect our 2024 CapEx to be slightly higher than $30 billion (their old guide was $30-32B)… At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years.”

??How can THIS company top NVIDIA? ?? All eyes are on TSMC as it rides a wave of momentum in the lead-up to earnings season. If you’ve been watching the semiconductor space, you know TSMC plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of tech. But what does this mean for investors—and the industry at large? ?? With the global chip shortage still making headlines and demand for semiconductors at an all-time high, TSMC has solidified its position as a critical player across industries like automotive, smartphones, and data centers. ???? So, what are we watching for as earnings approach? 1?? Will TSMC’s U.S. expansion strategy deliver the growth everyone’s hoping for? 2?? How will they navigate ongoing supply chain issues and macro challenges? 3?? Can they continue to meet the surging demand for advanced chip manufacturing? These are just a few of the big questions investors are asking. TSMC has been on a solid run lately, and with earnings just around the corner, the stakes are higher than ever. ?? If you’re in the tech, semiconductor, or investment space—this could be a make-or-break moment to watch. Drop your thoughts below! ?? #Semiconductors #TSMC #TechInvesting #StockMarket #EarningsSeason #Innovation #Chips

$TSM CEO on AI demand: "Simply, whether this AI demand is real or not, okay, and my judgment is real, we have talked to our customers all the time, including hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips, and almost every AI innovators is working with TSMC. And so we probably get the deepest and widest look of anyone in this industry. And why I say it's real? Because we have our real experience. We have using the AI and machine learning in our fab and R&D operations. By using AI, we are able to create more value by driving greater productivity, efficiency, speed, qualities. And think about it, let me use, 1% productivity gain, that was almost equal to about TWD 1 billion to TSMC. And this is a tangible ROI benefit. And I believe we cannot be the only one company that have benefited from this AI application. So I believe a lot of companies right now are using AI and -- for their own improving productivity, efficiency and everything. So I think it's real."

?? TSMC's Chip Dominance: A Double-Edged Sword? ?? TSMC's impressive Q3 results: ??$10.1B net profit (+54% YoY) ??$23.5B revenue (+36% YoY) ??13% Q4 revenue forecast increase (Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC) ?? But beneath the surface: ?? Chip dependence risks: 70% of TSMC's revenue comes from just 5 customers (Apple, NVIDIA, etc.). What happens if one dominos? ??AI ethics concerns: As TSMC fuels AI innovation, are we considering the societal implications of unchecked AI growth? ??Geopolitical tensions: TSMC's Taiwan location puts it at the center of US-China tensions. What's the plan for supply chain resilience? ?? Let's discuss: ?? Is TSMC's dominance a recipe for disaster or a testament to innovation? ??How can we balance AI progress with social responsibility? #ChipWars

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest producer of advanced chips, saw a 54% surge in net profit in the third quarter, prompting a 11% spike in its shares. The company, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia, anticipates further revenue growth in the upcoming months, fueled by the increasing demand for artificial intelligence technologies. Check out the full story here: [Link to CNBC article] #TSMC #AI #Chipmakers

The biggest semiconductor company in the world just reported its earnings, and shocked everyone. TSMC is the number one chip manufacturer in the world. They own 62% of the market, or five times more than Samsung at the second position, with 13%. This is the company NVIDIA, Apple, and most fabulous use to make their chips, because they can produce the most advanced semiconductors. TSMC reported a revenue of $23.5 billion on the quarter, up a massive 36% compared to the same quarter last year. This is the highest revenue ever for the company. Once we deduct the cost of making the chips, TSMC keeps a gross profit of $13.6 billion, up a massive 50% compared to the same quarter last year. They have a gross margin of 58%. After research and development, other operative expenses and taxes, TSMC has a net income of $10.1 billion on the quarter, up 53% year over year. TSMC is keeping $43 for every $100 they make in revenue. This is the best quarter ever for this company, and its U.S. listing stock is up 85% since January. #TSMC #Semiconductors #ChipManufacturing #TechStocks #NVIDIA #Apple #StockMarket #RevenueGrowth #NetIncome #AdvancedTechnology #GrossMargin #AI #TechIndustry #MarketLeadership #TechInnovation #Investing #Earnings #TechBoom

TSMC 3Q24 Revenue: $23.5B (+36% YoY) Gross Margin: 57.8% (54.3%) Operating Margin: 47.5% (41.7%) CapEx: $6.4B vs $7.1B Wafer Shipments: 3.4M (+15% YoY) Wafer ASP: $6131 (+18% YoY) TSMC CEO on AI: “The demand is real & I believe it's just the beginning of this demand.” “2025 CapEx will be higher than 2024." “We expect growth to be very healthy in the next five years." My thoughts 1. TSMC’s aggressive CapEx increases, while competitors cut back, create a cascading benefit for equipment vendors. With expanding capacity for 3nm and advanced nodes, TSMC drives steady demand for high-end lithography tools, etching systems, and process automation equipment. This ensures vendors like ASML, LAM, and Applied Materials can maintain R&D investments, accelerating innovation cycles. TSMC’s strategy not only meets rising AI and HPC chip demand but also strengthens the entire semiconductor supply chain, reinforcing its technological edge. To top it off, they are not taking debt for capex. This ensures to absorb the impacts from industry cyclicality. 2. TSMC’s partnerships with Nvidia and hyperscalers like Amazon drive a flywheel effect, where deep visibility across AI and cloud ecosystems strengthens alignment between production and demand. This creates a self-reinforcing moat—better capacity planning attracts more strategic partners, which in turn enhances TSMC’s dominance and technological edge. #Semiconductor #Semiconductors #SemiconductorIndustry #SemiconductorManufacturing #DataCenter #GenAI #intel #tsmc #asml #kla #besi #lrcx

TSMC Knocks It Out of the Park! ? The world’s largest contract chipmaker, TSMC, just announced its earnings, and they truly hit it out of the park. ?? With revenue up 36% YoY to $23.5 billion and a 54% jump in net profit, TSMC is riding the wave of soaring demand for AI and smartphone chips. According to CFO Wendell Huang, the third quarter was driven by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for their industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies. He also mentioned that they expect the business to remain strong due to the continued demand for leading-edge process technologies. Interestingly, this outlook contrasts with ASML’s recent earnings, where they cited future bookings softness due to cautious demand from some of their customers. Clearly, the softness isn’t coming from TSMC, but from other players like Intel Corporation, Samsung Semiconductor, and cautious memory players like SK Hynix, who are playing it safe in the current market. Key Highlights ?? Revenue: $23.5B (Up 36% YoY) Net Profit: $10.1B Q4’24 Revenue: $26.1B - $26.9B (Projected) Advanced Technologies: 7nm and smaller nodes made up 69% of total wafer revenue In Q3'24, 3nm chip shipments accounted for 20% of TSMC’s total wafer revenue, 5nm for 32%, and 7nm for 17%—a clear sign that TSMC continues to dominate in advanced technologies. How Did the Street React? The market loved these blowout results. ?? As of writing, TSMC’s stock is up 12%, with analysts raising price targets to $210. Jordan Klein of Mizuho Securities even quipped that TSMC’s fourth-quarter guidance “is so good it’s comical,” adding that Intel and Samsung are losing market share and falling further behind in leading-edge node technology. Final Thoughts ?? Semiconductor manufacturing is one of the most complex processes in the world—and leading-edge chip production is the pinnacle of that complexity. For TSMC to succeed, their ecosystem of suppliers and vendors needs to be operating at the top of their game. This isn’t a winner-takes-all game, it’s a “winners take all” game, and if TSMC and its partners continue to execute, they will remain one of the most strategically valuable companies globally. After all, you can’t have NVIDIA, Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, Broadcom, or Arm chips without TSMC. #TSMC #Semiconductors #AIChips #TechInnovation #ChipManufacturing #AdvancedTechnology #StockMarket #TechStocks #FoundryBusiness

Without TSMC… NVIDIA isn’t Nvidia! Good to see TSMC jump over the trillion dollar market cap figure this morning. Exciting stuff! Next order of business… continue to get top talent into semiconductor manufacturing here in the states to ensure maximum innovation!???? #semiconductors #manufacturing #TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor: Stock re-rating is coming. Why should you have a look at the stock? The Power Behind the Microchip: TSMC’s Rise to Dominance: In the high-stakes world of semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) stands tall as a powerhouse. While competitors like?Intel?and?Samsung?battle for market share, TSMC has carved out a unique position, leveraging strengths that keep it ahead of the curve. But what fuels this Taiwanese titan’s success, and what does the future hold? Here is my conclusion: Pure-Play Foundry Model:?Unlike integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) that design and fabricate their own chips, TSMC focuses solely on manufacturing. This “pure-play” approach allows it to pour resources into cutting-edge processes and capacity expansion, attracting a broad clientele of fabless companies. Leading-Edge Technology:?TSMC has consistently been at the forefront of adopting smaller nodes. Its 5nm process is in mass production, with 3nm on the horizon. These advanced technologies enable customers to create powerful, efficient chips for cutting-edge applications. Global Scale and Diversification:?With operations spanning Taiwan, China, the United States, and Singapore, TSMC mitigates geopolitical risks. Its enormous economies of scale, bolstered by massive capital expenditures, make it a go-to partner for companies worldwide. Strong R&D Partnerships:?Collaborations with industry leaders like?Apple,?Qualcomm, and?NVIDIA?drive the development of customized, leading-edge processes. These relationships secure a steady demand stream for TSMC’s most advanced technologies. A Glimpse into 2025: Riding the Semiconductor Boom The semiconductor industry is in a perfect storm, driven by surging demand for chips in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles to data center equipment. TSMC is poised to capitalize on this trend. Analysts forecast the company’s revenue to grow by over 15% in 2025, outpacing the broader market. This optimism stems from TSMC’s unmatched position in manufacturing leading-edge nodes and its ability to expand capacity to meet insatiable demand. While competitors scramble to catch up on technology and expand their manufacturing footprints, TSMC is cementing its lead. The company’s commitment to R&D, global diversification, and pure-play foundry model have created a formidable moat. As the global economy's digital transformation marches on, TSMC stands ready to power the innovation of tomorrow. TSM’s rise to dominance in the cutthroat chipmaking world is a testament to its strategic focus and technological prowess. With the semiconductor industry set to continue its meteoric rise, TSMC is poised to remain at the forefront, powering the devices and technologies that shape our world. Revenue Growth Forecast:?Over 15% in 2025 Competitive Advantages: Pure-play foundry model Leading-edge technology Global scale and diversification Strong R&D partnerships