Wage growth is 5.8% and inflation is 8.1% (annualized).
If #wages are growing slower than #inflation , shouldn't we expect the squeeze in household budgets to reduce #spending ?
...and if consumer demand is down shouldn't we expect that to lower the inflation rate?
YES!
All else being equal, if the only variable is wage growth rate, and if wages are growing at a notably lower rate than inflation, we could expect that to put downward pressure on prices.
But the financial system is very complex.
Right now we are seeing people spend even if they have to pull from savings to do so.
And I get it!
After the #covid lockdown, our family has been rebound traveling ?? this year.
Prices are up on hotels ?? --we grimace and pay.
Prices are up on flights?? --we grimace and pay.
Prices are up on concert tickets ????, restaurants ??, sporting events ??♀?, theater ?? --we grimace and pay.
As we feel like we've all missed out on so much during Covid, we're trying to make up for lost time.
And that's what people are doing right now.
Many households are drawing down on savings to fund current expenses.
Matter of fact, #consumers have pulled $0.91 trillion out of savings to keep spending as prices rise so that they don't miss out on what's important to them?
They can afford to spend because they saved $2.01 trillion over and above trend line savings rate during the #pandemic ?
The surplus savings came from spending less during the pandemic (because when stuck at home ?? there wasn't as much to do), and all the Covid related stimulus!
Since households still have $1.1 trillion excess savings available ?? , it may be a while before people rein in their budgets.
And if people keep on spending ???, we'll likely see a stubbornly high inflation rate that is slow to fall.
Yes, I do believe inflation will come down--but it may take a lot longer time to get back to the Fed's 2% target rate than many of us would like to believe.
#economy #markets #stockmarket
Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets (10/21)
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I suspect that the cost of travel along with the cost of everything else will also eventually curb people's ability to travel for leisure. That coupled with the continued labor shortages and subsequent reduced availability for flights, hotel rooms, etc. is eventually going to catch up with all of us traveling for work, leisure, and bleisure. You have to be able to pay rent and put food on the table when you get back home from your adventures after all.