Job openings lowest in 9 months

Data on Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) for June points to cooling, but far from cool, labor market conditions. The bottom line is that while the contraction in the number of job openings a little off the record high of 11.855 million in March, it leaves plenty of jobs out there for discouraged and marginalized workers, persons just entering the labor force after graduating high school or college, and more experienced workers with sought-after skills to seek better compensation and/or working conditions. The number of job openings fell for the third straight month to 10.698 in June which is the lowest since 10.629 in August 2021. The job openings rate is down three-tenths to 6.9% in June 2021. Fed policymakers will take this as a move in the right direction to bring the labor force back into balance. However, the Beveridge Curve amply demonstrates that there is still a way to go before that is accomplished. Net turnover – total hires less total separations – is up 443,000 in June and remains consistent with a strong labor market. The level of job quits – a subset of separations and a measure of how willing workers are to switch jobs – is down 37,000 to 4.237 million in June. The level is on the decline for the past three months but the change is small in June and May. The quits rate is unchanged at 2.8% in June and essentially unchanged since January. #jolts #jobopenings #beveridgecurve

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U.S. June's job openings fell for the third straight month as the labor market started to loosen up, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. Job openings—which represent labor demand—have been the main target of the Federal Reserve to lessen the second-round impact on wage-pushed inflation.? While the number of openings dropped to 10.7 million in June from its peak of 11.9 million in March, the pace of the decline might not be fast enough for the Fed's appetite as inflation remained persistent. That added to the concern that the market might have been too optimistic in thinking the Fed would turn the corner soon in terms of raising interest rates after the July meeting.? Despite being the Fed's top target, the strong labor demand with 1.8 job openings per unemployed worker available in June was one of an only handful of reasons that leaves some room for the possibility of a soft landing.? #jobopenings #labormarket #inflation

Latest data from the BLS out this morning shows a cooldown underway in the US labor market. Job openings fell by more than 600,000 in June, the largest one-month decline on record (outside of the start of the pandemic). This is still a very strong labor market - job openings, hires, and voluntary quits are still well above pre-pandemic levels and layoffs are still historically low. The Fed had hoped that by raising interest rates to slow down the economy and cool inflation that it could impact some of the slack in labor demand (openings) without causing harm to workers (layoffs). So far, it seems that things are going as planned, but JOLTS reports show us what happened two months ago so we won't know what's happening today in the labor market until October. #BLS #JOLTS #jobsreport #economy #economicoutlook #labormarket #economicrecovery #hiringtrends #layoffs #jobopenings #hrdata

I'm not a labor economist, but.... I can't help but notice after today's report that the JOLTS data that measures the number of #jobvacancies per #unemployed persons looks a lot like it did when there were pretty large #labor supply disruptions caused by the Korean and Vietnam Wars (highlighted by the periods in the '50s and '60's between the black vertical lines in the figure). The number came down a bit to 1.7 today, but it is still very high. Now there are some legitimate reasons to doubt that number (see https://lnkd.in/gq5TkkVX for example) and more than one way to compute the history of this measure (see https://lnkd.in/gGnhqe2G for example), but clearly the post-#covid #labormarket is not the same one we had in late 2019. The other thing to note is just how quickly this measure can drop back to trend, typically when a #recession comes along (the shaded periods in the figure as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) Report, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, hires remained extremely high at 6.4 million, quits remained extremely high at 4.2 million, and layoffs remained extremely low at 1.3 million. But job openings dropped to 10.7 million, falling below 11 million for the first time in 7 months, an indication that the labor market could slacken and hiring slow in the coming months.? Frankly, I'm surprised that the decline in openings wasn't larger. It is to be expected given the degree of economic uncertainty and the recent deterioration in financial conditions, following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. So far, however, the decline has been relatively modest, with the number of job openings still 53% higher than before the pandemic. Job openings also appear to be holding steady in leisure and hospitality—the sector that still has the largest number of jobs missing since the pandemic, but which has recently enjoyed an increase in activity.? Where the market is slackening first? Hiring has already started slowing in real estate and rental and leasing (-18%), wholesale trade (-10%), and professional and business services (-8%). Now, the decline in job openings in retail trade (-29%), construction (-18%), state and local government education (-17%), and health care and social assistance (-15%) suggest those industries are seeing labor demand soften as well.?? Rather than the slowdown being tied to industries, however, it appears linked to business size and maturity. Large companies with 1,000–4,999 employees have already applied the brakes in hiring, with 27% fewer new hires in June than in May. These large companies—many of them, publicly traded—were heavily affected by the stock market entering bear market territory. Many are hardening themselves against the possibility of a recession and cutting costs until stock market valuations and broader financial conditions improve.

Data on Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) for June points to cooling, but far from cool, labor market conditions. The bottom line is that while the contraction in the number of job openings a little off the record high of 11.855 million in March, it leaves plenty of jobs out there for discouraged and marginalized workers, persons just entering the labor force after graduating high school or college, and more experienced workers with sought-after skills to seek better compensation and/or working conditions. The number of job openings fell for the third straight month to 10.698 in June which is the lowest since 10.629 in August 2021. The job openings rate is down three-tenths to 6.9% in June 2021. Fed policymakers will take this as a move in the right direction to bring the labor force back into balance. However, the Beveridge Curve amply demonstrates that there is still a way to go before that is accomplished. Net turnover – total hires less total separations – is up 443,000 in June and remains consistent with a strong labor market. The level of job quits – a subset of separations and a measure of how willing workers are to switch jobs – is down 37,000 to 4.237 million in June. The level is on the decline for the past three months but the change is small in June and May. The quits rate is unchanged at 2.8% in June and essentially unchanged since January. #jolts #jobopenings #beveridgecurve