Job openings fall below 10M

February JOLTS US Labor Market Update The BLS released preliminary JOLTS data today for February 2023. Here are some takeaways from your friendly, neighborhood economist: 1. The # of seasonally adjusted job openings jumped down to 9.9M from 10.6M (revised downward from 10.8), which falls a bit below our downside expectations (10M) here at LinkedIn’s Economic Graph and likely falls well below most baseline expectations. Construction reversed its dramatic drop in openings from January. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities; Healthcare and Social Assistance; and Professional Services all saw fewer openings with no increase in hiring, meaning fewer job openings there do not just signal that positions were filled. Labor demand is likely slowed there as well. 2. The layoff rate ticked down slightly and continues to track below levels seen in 2019. The most notable acceleration in the layoff rate occurred in the tech-heavy Information sector where the level of layoffs is now 5x higher than it was in February 2022. 3. Overall, hiring and quit rates showed little change across regions and industries as expected. Both the hiring rate and quit rate looked to have stabilized now. Geographically, the hiring rate is now down substantially in the last year in every region except for the Midwest. The quit rate has also come down everywhere except for the South. The wild ride in the JOLTS job opening series continues. What is clear is that the South has both the highest number of openings and seen openings come down the least compared to other regions. So it should come as no surprise that Southern residents are still quitting and finding new opportunities even as momentum slows sizably in the north and out west. Also, rumors of the Midwest’s imminent demise may be greatly exaggerated (for now). Have you considered moving to the south? #linkedin #jobopenings #egdata

February JOLTS US Labor Market Update The BLS released preliminary JOLTS data today for February 2023. Here are some takeaways from your friendly, neighborhood economist: 1. The # of seasonally adjusted job openings jumped down to 9.9M from 10.6M (revised downward from 10.8), which falls a bit below our downside expectations (10M) here at LinkedIn’s Economic Graph and likely falls well below most baseline expectations. Construction reversed its dramatic drop in openings from January. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities; Healthcare and Social Assistance; and Professional Services all saw fewer openings with no increase in hiring, meaning fewer job openings there do not just signal that positions were filled. Labor demand is likely slowed there as well. 2. The layoff rate ticked down slightly and continues to track below levels seen in 2019. The most notable acceleration in the layoff rate occurred in the tech-heavy Information sector where the level of layoffs is now 5x higher than it was in February 2022. 3. Overall, hiring and quit rates showed little change across regions and industries as expected. Both the hiring rate and quit rate looked to have stabilized now. Geographically, the hiring rate is now down substantially in the last year in every region except for the Midwest. The quit rate has also come down everywhere except for the South. The wild ride in the JOLTS job opening series continues. What is clear is that the South has both the highest number of openings and seen openings come down the least compared to other regions. So it should come as no surprise that Southern residents are still quitting and finding new opportunities even as momentum slows sizably in the north and out west. Also, rumors of the Midwest’s imminent demise may be greatly exaggerated (for now). Have you considered moving to the south? #linkedin #jobopenings #egdata

JOLTS data limited in terms of history, but worth noting that current year/year % drawdown in job openings (orange) is consistent with last two recessions … important to keep trend in mind just as much as level??

In the past two months, the US labor market has lost 1.3 million job openings. While the job openings to unemployed ratio is still high, it's clear now that demand for labor has peaked and we're on the way back down. How far we go depends on whether or not the Federal Reserve feels like it can keep hiking without causing further damage to the banking system. Story in Quartz: https://lnkd.in/eTnXndAq

Data out today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed US job openings fell in February to 9.9 million, the lowest level since May 2021. While the degree of the decline was bigger than economists were expecting, vacancies are still quite elevated -- with some 1.7 openings per unemployed worker -- and the labor market remains strong. At the same time, the number of people quitting their jobs edged up, a sign that many workers still feel confident about finding a new job. Layoffs decreased. One thing to flag: This data can be extremely volatile from month-to-month. We'll get a better sense of just how fast labor demand is cooling in various pockets of the economy as more data is published. Check out our full story here: https://lnkd.in/efHjx7Tk

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday that job openings dropped below 10 million for the first time since May 2021. The JOLTS report showed that the so-called quits rate, which measures voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, edged up to 2.6%. That equates to about 4 million Americans. Quits increased in business services, accommodation and food services, and wholesale trade. Firms with fewer than 10 employees experienced the biggest decline in job openings on a percentage basis. Vacancies fell in all four US regions. This chart from October 2022 marks the relationship between job openings and unemployment in the US since 2001. #unemployment #jobopenings #useconomy #jobmarket #datavisualization Follow for visual and data insights.

The latest churn within the jobs market is important for interest rate expectations. Read my comments to CNBC: “The labor market is starting to loosen as the number of job openings declined in most sectors. As the economy slows, firms will likely cut openings and workers will be less likely to quit in search of better hours and higher pay,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial LPL Financial - Research https://lnkd.in/g8w6cjmp

The BLS Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data came out today and this is what I see: 1. The U.S. labor market seems to be cooling as job openings declined MoM by 6.0% and over the past three months by 7.6%. 2. If we look at establishment size classes with 5,000 or more employees, layoffs & discharges have increased by 6.7% and 33.3% over the past three months and YoY. *Despite the headline news of layoffs and economic uncertainty, employers have to keep building their talent pools. *There is some talk about how this might be an employer's market, however voluntary attrition (quits) increased by 3.8% and 5.1% MoM for total non-farm, and for establishment size classes with 5,000 or more employees. *People are still facing challenges around caregiving, concerns regarding health, and not wanting to work. *Those reasons have not gone away. (Source: U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey) *Employer brand still matters *How does an employer distinguish itself as the choice of employment? *Go back to the basics: 1. Compensation/benefits 2. Culture 3. Diversity 4. Respect Respect is one of the most important and undervalued factors that employers need to consider. How does leadership value its employees? Is there an investment in employees through coaching, mentoring, and sponsorship? These are real issues that people consider before taking a job or leaving a job. #labormarketexplained #useconomy #jobs

Softer #job and #production data in Feb amid rising #recession concerns ?? Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of cooling overall economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve's favor in fighting inflation. ?? Together with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a recession in the second half of the year in our base case has been rising. We believe the Fed should and will pause starting this summer to assess the full impact of its restrictive policy on the economy. ? There were 9.9M job openings in February, down from 10.5M in the prior month. That was equivalent to 1.67 openings available for every unemployed worker. Feb's number was almost 1.9. ? Job openings, a proxy for labor demand, has been one of the Federal Reserve's top targets for many months. While the downside surprise was a welcome sign, there remained substantial gap between demand and supply of labor compared to the firm labor market pre-pandemic. There were only around 1.2 job vacancies for each unemployed worker in 2019. ? If our forecast of a recession holds true in the second half of 2023, we should expect sharper declines in labor demand, following by more layoffs and higher unemployment rates. ? But until then, labor demand will continue to outweigh supply as the economy is poised to add more job gains. Our forecast for March's payroll number had been 220,000 before Tuesday's data came out. Thus, the cooler-than-expected data should add more downside risks to our forecast. ? In a separate report from the Census Bureau, orders for manufactured and industrial goods dropped 0.7% in February. Jan's number was revised downward to a 2.1% decline from 1.6% earlier. ? The data came out amid increasing signs of a recession within the manufacturing sector in recent months. Key indicators such as our manufacturing index, the ISM's manufacturing index and durable goods orders have all shown continuing weaknesses. ? Friday's manufacturing job gains will certainly be another key indicator to see whether we are able to make the call for a manufacturing recession underway or not. There were 4,000 less jobs for the sector in February.?

Job openings dropped sharply to 9,931,000 in February 2023, falling back below 10 million for the first time since May 2021 as the job market continues to cool. The latest #JOLTS report shows that job openings fell sharply month-over-month in several sectors that have grown rapidly in the pandemic recovery: Professional & business services: -278,000 Health care & social assistance: -150,000 Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -145,000 Accommodation & food services: -125,000 The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers that the Federal Reserve often refers to fell to 1.67, the lowest level since November 2021. Openings are coming more in line with other indicators like quits and hires that indicate a hot-but-not-as-hot job market. Other JOLTS indicators were more positive in February with quits rebounding modestly, rising back above 4 million. And after a concerning jump in January, layoffs & discharges dropped back to 1,504,000 in Feb, still solidly below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, we are seeing signs of cooling, but the JOLTS data points to a job market that is still hot, cooler than the temperature a year ago but still well above the 2019 temperature. The labor market has been surprisingly resilient though the ripple effects from the banking turmoil are the next challenge that the job market will face in the coming months. #economy #news