Hiring rebounds in August: LinkedIn

Fed’s relentless inflation fight pits economy versus markets We continue to find ourselves in one of the more unusual macroeconomic environments in recent history, especially regarding the relationship between economic activity and investment activity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at last week’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole made one overriding principle abundantly clear: Driving inflation back down to acceptable levels will supersede all other Fed priorities, including economic expansion. Simply put, the more resilient the #economy and the “stickier” high inflation remains, the greater the potential for further aggressive rate hikes that could wreak additional damage on equity #markets. We’ve already observed some examples of this relationship in the days immediately following Powell’s comments: This past Tuesday’s JOLTs report (job openings surprised to the upside) and this morning’s release of first-time weekly jobless claims (claims fell unexpectedly). These signs of tenacious tightness in the labor market have many investors believing a fourth straight 75 bps hike in the fed funds target rate in September is inevitable, likely resulting in further retracement of this summer’s bear-market equity rally. ? We expect tomorrow morning’s release of August’s non-farm payrolls data to provide yet another upside-surprise in labor markets. While we don’t anticipate last month’s job creation to come close to July’s shocking increase (+528K #jobs), our view is that there’s still scope for payrolls to exceed consensus estimates of +300k. Stabilization of jobless claims in the most recent weekly report (see chart) provides support for this view. What are your expectations for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report? #LITrendingtopics

Although hiring has slowed when compared to a year ago, hiring ticked up in August according to LinkedIn’s Workforce Report. This comes after an unexpected rise in the level of job openings in July according the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past year, states with the highest monthly increase in house prices also saw higher average job openings rates and hiring rates. With housing representing the biggest part of household wealth, the impact of the pandemic surge in housing wealth may persist for some time. #housing #hiring #labormarket #jobtrends

Hiring bounced back in August, rising for the first month across the U.S. since April — check out the data in LinkedIn's Workforce Report. It's based on how many of 191 million U.S. members started new jobs in the past month. What do you think is next for the labor market? Share your thoughts in the comments below. #hiring #data #linkedin https://lnkd.in/dmiccPvm

A much-feared surge in joblessness doesn’t seem to be happening, based on government data. ? The Labor Department says seasonally adjusted new applications for unemployment assistance slipped to 232k, below expectations and the lowest since June. ? That’s a decline of 5k from the previous weeks downwardly revised level. ? Continuing claims, gauging the total number of individuals receiving jobless aid through regular state programs rose by 26k to more than 1.4 million. That’s a little more than half the level for continuing claims a year ago at this time. ? Some firms announcing job cuts seem to represent worst-case scenarios for firms facing steep challenges, such as those in the interest-rate sensitive realm. ? Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which monitors job cut announcements, says the tech sector led in August, also responsible for more than 14k cuts this year, up 70% from the same period last year. Challenger notes the auto sector leads all industries for the year to date, an industry severely constrained by supply chain challenges, unable to meet demand. ? In this week’s ADP report, leisure and hospitality, representing bars, restaurants etc. continued to hire aggressively last month, likely also representing some churn in a typically a lower-wage, more demanding sector. ? We’ve also gotten word recently that U.S. job openings topped 11 million as of last count, also suggesting the labor market remains strong and resilient. ? All of this ahead of the August employment report expected to show the unemployment rate remains at 3.5%. ? While the Aug. employment report is important, it represents data around the 12th of the month. So jobless claims are closer to a real-time read of the job market, all of which watched closely by the Federal Reserve, meeting less than 3 weeks from now and likely to boost rates once again with an eye toward dampening inflation by targeting demand. #hiring #employment #economy #layoffs #business #financial #markets #jobs #career #jobcuts #interestrates #money #technology #auto #supplychain #federalreserve

#Jobhopping – Is it a step in the right direction? ? My answer is a resounding YES!? ? Every generation is generally shaped by their personal experiences of historical events.?This couldn’t be more evident when we look at #Genz. Born between 1997-2012, this generation has grown and is still growing up on the heels of the first generation to coin? the term – "Job Hopping".? ? To give you the significance of how job hopping relates to generational change,?let’s take a step back to the Baby Boomers. Salaries and unions and the promise of a pension for life was a strong enticement for workers not to job hop. ? Then Millennials entered the workforce, and #jobhopping got the green light to a?better future. The workplace culture of the post-war generations changed to meet the?times. #Millennials were looking for jobs representing their values, and companies supporting?social justice, #inclusion, #diversity, and environmental issues. And when and if their current?job no longer fit– they job hopped. ? According to CareerBuilder: Employers expect 45% of newly hired millennials?would remain in a company for under two years and by age 35, about 25% would have?worked five jobs.? ? Enter Gen Z, the most transformative generation age group ever.? Insider Intelligence reported: Gen Z? closely mirrors millennials on key social and political issues, but without much optimism. ? Why is that? Gen Zers have been impacted by uncertainty & imbalance in almost every area of their young lives, including the economy, politics, environmental issues, and sexual orientations. ? LinkedIn reported: Members of Gen Z are switching jobs at a rate 134% higher than in 2019, And Gen Zers plan to keep moving: 25% say they hope or plan to leave their employers in the next six months. ? Should we think about resetting our thinking?? My answer would be yes, and here is why. ? In 2019, no one escaped the pandemic that triggered a free fall of?unexpected #change. Businesses, workers, and job seekers were caught unprepared.?Banishing expectations raised the need for a reframing of the core values that inform?the decisions we make and the actions we take. ? Take Job Hopping. Once a red flag on a resume can now be a green light for an opportunity.? ? FOR JOB HOPPERS SEEKING NEW OPPORTUNITIES: 1)?Use your values/core beliefs to guide your decisions about hopping 2)?Be assertive and explain how each opportunity provided values?applicable to the new role opportunity you are now seeking. 3)?Showcase your flexibility, #resilience, and #emotionalintelligence skills critical in today’s job market. ? FOR EMPLOYERS SEEKING NEW HIRES: Embrace the times. In the past, a job hopper was?a red flag for being unqualified; in today’s world, a job hopper may be the most qualified.? It's time to take a second look. Thoughts? Follow Joshua Miller Click the ?? on my profile & get notified of my new posts #jobhopping #careeradvice #joshuamiller #linkedinnews #litrendingtopics #leadership

A Great Reshuffle (Retrospective) Update for July: The BLS released preliminary JOLTS data today for July. Here are some takeaways: 1. The layoff rate continued to track near record lows (since 2000) though it is not good news for all. The layoff rate for Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation jumped up to 3.5% (from 2.4% last July and 3.3% last month). 2. As of July, the # of job openings in the private sector sits near 10.2m (compared to 10.8m this past March) with more openings in government at the federal, state and local levels (+42k openings for state and local educators as we head into a new school year). Government employment is over half a million below its February 2020 level according to the July jobs report. 3. Hiring and quit rates continue to taper off across regions and industries (with levels elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels). A flat hiring rate and downward edging quit rate suggest that fewer job departures contributed to that stunning July nonfarm payroll number. Overall, the preliminary read for hires (quits) was higher (lower) than I expected.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the rise of #HybridWork isn't just changing our economy, it's changing who gets to participate. Geographic representation in the digital economy is making the shift from superstar tech hub cities like San Francisco, Seattle, and New York to any city, anywhere, as people and organizations embrace extreme flexibility in how, when, and where people work. With more companies hiring for flexible roles and an increase in interest from job seekers for hybrid and remote opportunities, this movement on both sides of the labor market has opened the conversation about the #FutureofWork where people outside of the well-known tech cities can participate in the digital economy. Check out this Harvard Business Review article for a look at the societal impacts of this new era in the geography of work, backed by research from Microsoft and LinkedIn. While the future is inherently uncertain, I believe we’re living amid a pivotal moment and ultimately opening the door to a more diverse and innovative workforce.

TL;DR: The US economy isn't in recession, but it has clearly slowed a lot in 2022. A few months ago I noted that gross domestic income (GDI), an alternate and probably superior way of calculating gross domestic product (GDP), was contradicting the higher-profile GDP measure's claim of negative economic growth in Q1. That occurred again in Q2. This isn't surprising - GDP has been largely contradicted by most other economic data we've seen in the first half of 2022, almost all of which continue to show an economy in expansion mode. However, you can only take the optimistic in the GDI data so far. It also shows a sharp slowdown in inflation-adjusted economic growth, from ~5.5% during 2021 to below 2% in the first half of 2022. This is the kind of growth we'd characterize as near trend or maybe a little below it. Financial conditions have eased over the past month in anticipation of a Fed pivot; if that sticks, we could see a reacceleration in the rest of the year.