课程: Using Data in Financial Analysis

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Doing a forecast in Excel

Doing a forecast in Excel - Microsoft Excel教程

课程: Using Data in Financial Analysis

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Doing a forecast in Excel

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- [Narrator] We've talked a lot about using regressions to make predictions, but, of course, predictions are nothing new in business. So I want to spend a few minutes talking about conventional financial forecasts and how those are done, just so you have a sense for how that compares to newer methods that use regressions in big data. In particular, the percent of sales method is probably the most common method in business for making forecasts. We begin with a sales forecast that's based on an annual growth rate in revenue. We might, for example, expect that our sales are going to grow 5% every year for the next five years. We then use the balance sheet and the income statement and change those proportionally with sales. For a long-term forecast, it's going to be built around what we call a CAGR, or compounded annual growth rate. This is the traditional method that you'll see at most companies out there, but…

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