课程: Financial Basics Everyone Should Know

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Understanding the link between recessions and inflation

Understanding the link between recessions and inflation

课程: Financial Basics Everyone Should Know

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Understanding the link between recessions and inflation

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- [Instructor] We have decades of economic data that we can draw on to understand how inflation affects us and affects different variables in the economy. So let's take a look at what that data tells us. I'm in the 05_05_Begin Excel file, and what I've done is go through and pulled data from 1930 through 2022, which is the last year I could get all of these variables for, for inflation, T-bills, US Treasury bonds, that's longer-term bonds if you'll recall, gross domestic product or GDP, the real rate of interest, which is just the three-month T-bill rate minus inflation, and the maturity risk premium, which is the difference between Treasury bonds and Treasury bills. And what the maturity risk premium is really picking up is it's picking up how much more we get paid in interest for locking up our money for a long time. And the real rate is picking up how much we get paid on a Treasury investment over and above inflation. So if you'll recall, I mentioned previously that one of the…

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