Stuck in “Dev Hell”? Trust Math – Not Data – and your Senses

After 4 months and >50 versions of developing and then testing Sherlock & The Fox , a Bonding & Deduction Boardgame, I got stuck in “development hell/limbo ”.

Development Hell/Limbo:?The state where an announced creative project gets stuck in?limbo?at the creation stage for years.

With a mean of 7.3 (which seemed neither good nor bad), median of 7, mode of 8, and a 3 and a 5, I was unsure whether I should keep iterating to get to a 10, or move on.

To decide, I looked into the data I’d gathered.

Trust Math: Let go of "Perfection" and Focus on Probability Skew

And of course, the most objective way to decide is with math.

Specifically, with these concepts & theories:

• Normal Distribution – Also known as a "bell curve", Normal Distribution is a statistical concept where data points are symmetrically distributed around a central value.
• Central Limit Theorem (CLT) – Given a large enough sample size (n), the distribution of sample means will eventually form a symmetrical shape that looks like a "bell curve", where the total area under the curve is 1 or 100%.

You'll find such "bell-curve" patterns everywhere – in people's heights, sizes of snowflakes, lifetimes of lightbulbs, IQ scores, and so on.

Therefore, with math, we can make reliable decisions based on sample data, even if we don't sample the entire population.

I used to hate math, but once I sought to understand its concepts (rather than memorising), I came to be awed by how it actually describes reality so elegantly.

And the reality is that it's impossible and unrealistic to make everyone happy.

It's impossible to get everyone to rate a 10.

Normal Distribution proves that perfection is impossible in reality.

It's normal to have a range of opinions, with some people loving it and others not as much.

In fact, if I got every user to rate a 10, the data is probably biased and shouldn't be trusted.

Instead, I think it's probably better to look at the shape of the probability distribution curve, aiming for a skew where the majority of ratings are above a central value, such as the median, mean, or mode.

Insights from Math

• Variation: Low. At 1.43, it falls within moderate Standard Deviation (0.73-2.2), indicating that while there is some variability in ratings, most players have similar positive experiences.
• Consistency: High. Ratings are not widely dispersed, indicating that most players agree on the value of the game.
• Probability Distribution Skew: Negative Left Skew, with high probability densities for scores above the central value mean of 7.3.

Optimise Efforts Towards Survival

Normal Distribution as a proven theoretical concept gave me the confidence that it’s ok to ignore outliers, specifically those who rated it poorly.

It's not about ignoring them – I’m still treating them with respect and consideration.

But I believe it’s about knowing what to focus on.

They can't be served – they don't need this product.

As a solo founder who is bootstrapping a “startup”, I have to optimise my efforts on the things that can help me survive.

I can't serve everyone, so I have to focus on the ones the ones who are the happiest; who could see its value.

But what do they truly value?

Clarify your Value Hypothesis

To get a fresh perspective, I took a step back to look at branding , to better define the value I was aiming to create, based on insights I'd gathered.

And the value hypothesis I came to was that my boardgames aim to strengthen bonds – with boardgames that has healthy competition – and allows people to connect meaningfully.

Trust your Senses: Observe What They Do, Besides What They Say

If the goal of ??bondfire is to forge stronger bonds through boardgames with healthy competition and meaningful conversation, then, did Sherlock & The Fox achieve it?

Having observed every play test, I witnessed the change within the room.

Before the game, there was order, tension and awkwardness.

Then, as the game progressed, chaos ensued ??

Everyone loosened up and sat more casually. Volume decibels increased –?with hoots of laughter and high fives as players won or tried to win. Some started to munch on more food & drinks.

Sure, you could argue that games already do that.

But to me, this simply validates that a boardgame is the right solution for having quality fun time.

What’s more important, is to validate my value hypothesis – that players connected deeper too.

Did they better know each others’ likes, dislikes, values, dreams & goals?

Interestingly, I witnessed how people who’d known each other for years gained new insights about each other .

Everyone knew everyone better at the end of a game – not just how they think and play to win – but who they are as a person too.

Most of All, Enjoy the Ride

To be honest, it's good to have more confidence to move forward.

However, as a new game publisher that no one trusts (yet ??), I can’t really “spray and pray”.

I can’t really mass manufacture and pray that people will buy it if I build it.

Instead, I think it makes more sense to take things one step at a time.

Here’s how:

Milestone 1: Launch Limited 1st Edition on Kickstarter (500 units only)

I enjoy painting , arts & crafts. But I stopped once I had to grow up.

So, I’m going to take this chance to explore methods to create the game components.

Goal: Make the 1st Edition as outrageously beautiful – as feasibly possible.

If entrepreneurship is a roller coaster ride, then I want to have fun!

Milestone 2: Launch Global Edition on bondfire.games

• Trigger Condition: At least 500 units sold.

If all goes well; if all Kickstarter units gets pledged, then I’ll have the confidence to move forward with a mass market edition (??).

If you're keen to see how “Sherlock & The Fox” is brought from Limbo to Life, follow ??bondfire!

• Progress Roadmap on bondfire.games
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I'm bootstrapping my (boardgame) brand from 0→1 as a First-time Solo Founder.

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