Steve Polonowski

The moderation trend is continuing to accelerate! The NA segment of on-premise beer sales in the U.S. jumped 33.7% over the last 52 weeks with broad-based gains in all 50 states! ?? ?? ?? At Partake Brewing we are seeing on-premise operators move from offering 1 NA beer option to now several with macros and craft represented in addition to house mocktails. ?? ?? ?? This is an exciting time for the non-drinker and moderator alike! Gone are the days of water, juice, milk, and soda as the non-alcoholic options. ?? https://lnkd.in/gibbdbPB

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What's the typical sports nutrition consumer? There isn't one! Prinoval's latest white paper found that while all respondents were more active than average, their activity habits varied drastically. For example, 20% exercised twice weekly and 22.5% did so daily. We also discovered regional variation, with a third of Spanish respondents exercising daily compared to just one in seven in Italy. What does this tell us? You can't put all sports nutrition consumers into one neat little box! Discover more insights with our white papers and market reports: https://lnkd.in/euZ-8R7Z #SportsNutrition #WhitePaper #Exercise #PrinovaGlobal #WeArePrinova

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Customer-centric (customer-centered, customer first) was a corporate buzzword that littered mission statements, marketing slicks, slogans, emails, etc., but lost its impact due to corporations' repeated failures to deliver on the promise. I fear the same fate for "Innovation," which is used everywhere but seldom delivered consistently. The "Innovation Gap" discussed in Adam Melonas article published by Forbes Business Council below must be solved before "Innovation" becomes another hollow buzzword. Innovation, not Renovation, is what will drive profitable, volume-led growth for CPG companies. Critically, the innovation, from idea to shelf, must be in months, not years.

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What an incredible 3 days in Chicago at the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT) Annual Event and Expo with colleagues, friends, partners, investors, and customers. Great to attend with Todd Rands, Paul Vajda, Holden Sasser, Bill Aimutis, and Jonathan McIntyre ! The #startup pavilion was brimming with action, people, ideas, and innovation. Highlights from the week: > Innovation startups led by laser-focused founders: I met several innovative startups. While their tech was impressive, the founders stood out even more! They were SMART in their leadership and relentless focus. These founders are careful in how they spend money (like it was their own!), and laser focused on getting product-market fit, proving their first customer, and building an annual recurring revenue stream. > ?A wave of women-led startups: It was also great to see a range of startups creating success with founders who were young and talented and women-led! > Old guard, new technology. Also, it’s energizing to see so many successful startups being launched by the ‘old guard’ like myself, bringing 30+ years of experience to new technology in our industry. It’s exciting times in #FoodTech—despite the challenging investment environment. I applaud the perseverance and resilience from founders and innovators that keeps our talent driving forward. Keep going!?

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"Thanks Kaleigh Theriault, great play by play on the first half, let’s take a look at what’s going to be needed to win the year." ?? Halftime Report: Preparing for the second half in the Beverage Alcohol Industry! ?? As we take a breather at the halfway point of 2024, it's clear that the beverage alcohol industry has seen some major plays and strategic moves. Let's huddle up and look at the game plan for the rest of the year: ?? Beer: The price increases in 2023 are putting pressure on consumers, with long-term inflation effects and multiple drivers pointing to lower volumetrics. To stay in the game, deeper price subsidization for core Beer categories is essential. However, Imports show potential for a positive finish. Maintaining consumer loyalty will be our MVP move here. ?? Wine: The $15-$25 range continues to be the sweet spot, driving consumer interest. But to achieve positive trends by year-end, we need to capitalize on Q4 gifting. A big comparable period is coming up, so some price adjustments might be necessary, especially for infrequent Wine shoppers. ?? Spirits: We're seeing a continued shakeout as consumers transition from traditional products to RTDs. Flavor and turn-key cocktails are the winning plays, making Q4 critical for gifting and entertaining. Price discounting is already in motion to boost revenue. ?? RTD (Ready-to-Drink): RTDs remain a game-changer this year. With their share of total Alcohol growing, we expect more stability in growth rates as the shift from Seltzers slows. Building consumer brand loyalty for Spirits RTDs is crucial, and we need to watch out for potential flavor fatigue in the second half. Let's get ready to tackle the challenges and seize the opportunities ahead! Here's to a successful second half of 2024! ?? "Why did the football team go to the bank at halftime? To get their quarterback!" ?? #BeverageIndustry #AlcoholTrends #Beer #Wine #Spirits #RTD #MarketInsights #SecondHalf #HalftimeReport Note: This report looks at the 26 week ending period thru July 6th, 2024

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Creating Demand - what manufacturers must get good at again! Food manufacturers are feeling the pain because customers are buying less now that prices have gone up. No kidding. Manufacturers are reporting a rise in more price sensitive customers. No kidding. If you have put your prices up 10% but your customer’s disposable income has gone down due to increases in interest rates, fuel prices, energy bills, transportation costs and essential items, then no kidding, customers are going to buy less often. I accept that manufacturer costs have increased as well. The electricity bill for running a huge product facility alone must be astronomical. But, what has clearly been seen over the last few years is that customers, who have much more choice in where to spend their money, are going to choose not to buy products that have gotten smaller but stayed the same price, or increased in price repeatedly, or both. Customer choice is a fact of life now. Manufacturers need to adapt or watch as their business continues to shrink as more and more of their customers abandon them, or choose to spend money on other items. So, what can manufacturers do about it? Get good at creating demand again. At this point I usually get asked “well how do we do that?” And the simple truth is that I can’t answer that question. I don’t know the business, the products, the customers, the costs. What I can say though is that manufacturers will need to start by removing their self-imposed restrictions. What use is it making 45% gross margin on a declining business when you could be making 40% on a business worth 20% more and growing? What is the point in setting high minimum order thresholds when they exclude channels and retailers that are the growing areas of the market? (Digital marketplaces, direct to retailer, convenience, food service) I understand that efficiencies have been put in place to maximise the manufacturer P&L, but if they are simply maximising a volume and value decline then they are simply creating a more efficient but prolonged death spiral. I have worked in revenue growth management, but, for many manufacturers, brands and products, the time has come to realise that revenue is not in growth, and that very different management is required. Manufacturers must get good at creating demand again. If they don’t then their decline is inevitable as customers choose to spend their disposable income on other items. #digitalcommerce #ecommerce #demand #creativity #cpg #cpgindustry #fmcg #fmcgindustry #growth #grocery #omnichannel

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The US Beer industry landscape is changing fast. AB InBev's North America Normalized EBIT declined by over $1.3 B from 2022 to 2023. The volume market share decline (relative to Molson Coors Beverage Company and Constellation Brands) contributed to that EBIT decline by an amount of $400 Million. It has not helped that overall volumes between these three major players has declined by over 4%. It's a general sign of the headwinds facing the beer category as shopper and consumer preferences shift. For #ABInBev, that overall market decline cost them another $200M. A just less than 4% increase in Net Pricing contributed a +ve $560Million to the Normalized EBIT change, but was insufficient to mitigate the increased inflationary unit costs associated with Cost of Sales and the de-leveraging of other SG&A operating expenses. It will be interesting to track how these components of EBIT will change for 2024, given growth constraints associated with market share gains and price increase ceilings. Looks like some drastic OPEX cuts might be the only short-term remedy for now as AB InBev looks to rebuild brand equity and volume share. Send me a DM or write "send" in the comments section and I will forward you the document that also contains the related MVA operating breakdown for #MolsonCoors and #ConstellationBrands. It's interesting to see how and to what extent Molson Coors and Constellation Brands benefited from AB InBev's headwinds. You will also see why Constellation Brands might be the longer term winner here. #Beerindustry #beercategory #beerdistribution #Heineken #BeverageAlcohol #Asahi #Carlsberg #BostonBeer #beer #beverages #BudLight #MillerLite #CoorsLight #Corona #ModeloEspecial

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We all saw what happened when Wendy's announced the potential for a dynamic pricing model. People were not pleased. I'm not sure that will entirely kill the possibility of dynamic pricing eventually rolling out in the industry, but it did put the brakes on it for the short term. What about surveillance pricing? As this article from Reuters covers (https://lnkd.in/e_JdG5rB), there is the possibility that surveillance pricing will allow companies to charge individuals more based on past searches, purchases, and any other number of data points. Now, there's an economic basis for some of this. If demand increases at certain times or for certain products, prices can go up...welcome to supply and demand. We see this playing out all the time without all of the surveillance or high-tech traffic tracking. Dynamic pricing is, essentially, the high-tech and real time version of this principle, whether we really like it or not. Surveillance pricing, however, is something else entirely. But, is it surprising this is happening. In the industry, we're talking about the possibility of creating hyper-customized products based on a person's DNA or other bio-data. Wouldn't it also follow that pricing would become that individualized as well? But that makes more sense for products that are distinctly different rather than individualized prices for the same product. Either way, I think we can expect more of this type of activity as technology allows for this level of individual behavior surveillance and analysis. #innovation #trends2024 #pricingstrategy #foodservice #retail #cpg #foodandbeverageindustry #restaurants #technology #economy #menumattersllc

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CPG Panel — “More than commerce”: ?? We are working on a mega panel (June 13) of CPG powerhouses right now including some of my great friends: Jamie Schwab (Colgate-Palmolive) Jamie Decker (Del Monte Foods, Inc.). We will be diving into the importance of driving direct-to-customer engagement through digital, not just commerce. Topics: (4) 1. First-party data strategies 2. Customer engagement 3. Omnichannel marketing 4. No doubt AI! We still have a few panelists spots remaining, feel free send me a DM or comment below if you may be interested or know some who would be great for this topic. #ecommerce #digital #omnichannel #strategy #cmo #cdo #ceo #cro #leadership #retailecommerceclub #cpg #privateequity #playtowin

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Great points here by Christy. This is also supported by some recent posts regarding the increase in promotions coming at some major brands based on volume falloff in the recent quarter. Post-inflation brings an increase in trade promotion as volume increases much more significantly through effective trade spending than list price declines at key retailers. It can be focused & targeted to meet specific objectives. The key here is the brands managing trade promotion most effectively will be the biggest winners over the next couple years. For smaller brands, this is often an overlooked area & required much greater analysis & focus.

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Coke vs. Pepsi? Not so fast. ? For the first time, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. has now claimed the #2 soda spot in America, surpassing PepsiCo, who had held the position for over two decades.?Their innovative marketing initiatives and unique blend of?flavors have truly set them apart from?the?competition. I had the chance to discuss Dr.?Pepper's remarkable rise with The Food Institute, emphasizing their strategy and how they have particularly resonated with the younger demographic, who crave diverse flavors beyond traditional cola. ? In the article, I mentioned:?"Dr. Pepper has distinguished itself through effective marketing campaigns that emphasize its unique flavor and individuality. This strategy resonates particularly well with younger demographics seeking alternatives to traditional cola drinks." ? With Dr.?Pepper's leap to the #2 position, do you think they have a shot at dethroning The Coca-Cola Company from the #1 spot? In which other?categories?do you?think a shift like this is possible? Read the full article here:?https://lnkd.in/g572y5jv ? #MarketingStrategy #BeverageIndustry #Innovation #DrPepper

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Consumers are rejecting brands based on budget realities as well as on principle. Thats the observation of ConAgra CEO Sean Connolly in this article about the decline in sales of major snack brands. At Ignite 360 we’ve been talking with consumers about how they are adapting their purchase and consumption behavior thru our longitudinal Navigating to a New Normal study. A piece from Q1 2023 is in the comments. Yes, Q1 of last year… Even then we heard outrage and frustration on the price increases and so on principle, and necessity, consumers were modifying behavior. What will it take to win them back? Lower prices and all will be forgiven? What about breaking the new habits formed now that they’ve cut back or left your brand? This is where having empathy becomes so important - understanding the point of view of your consumer so they have a seat at your decision making table. After all, without your consumers, where would your business be? I’d love to hear from you about how you are addressing this new consumer landscape and to talk about insights work that can help clear the path forward. DM me or email or add to the comments. And what thoughts do some of my favorite strategic thinkers have on this? Peter McDonald Marlene Straszewski David Clark Happy Friday! #marketing #cpg #inflation #consumerbehavior #longitudinalstudy #empathy #insights Insights Association https://wapo.st/4cUoYd0

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As the demand for high-protein, on-the-go snacks continues to surge, Conagra is positioning itself at the forefront of this enduring trend. Conagra Brands, the force behind iconic names like Slim Jim and Duke's, has strategically expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of Sweetwood Smoke & Co., makers of Fatty Smoked Meat Sticks. What makes Fatty's unique? Their meat sticks boast high protein, low sugar, gluten-free ingredients, and no MSG—exactly what today's health-conscious consumers are after. Since their major 2018 acquisition of Pinnacle Foods, Conagra has been laser-focused on strengthening their core business and managing debt, keeping acquisitions on the back burner. But when the right opportunity comes along, especially a bolt-on that aligns perfectly with market trends, they were ready to act. With the meat snack market projected to grow at nearly 7% CAGR through 2033, this acquisition is a smart move for Conagra, bolstering their position in a booming segment. At Greenwich Capital Group LLC, we anticipate a significant increase in strategic-driven M&A activity within the F&B category in the coming year, likely surpassing previous levels. Mars' recent acquisition of Kellanova underscores the growing trend of large strategic acquirers making bold moves to enhance their market presence and diversify their offerings. This acquisition is a clear signal that leading players are not just pursuing growth, but are also keenly focused on aligning with evolving consumer demands for health-conscious, innovative products. We expect to see more deals of this nature as companies seek to strengthen their positions in an increasingly competitive and dynamic market. #MergersAndAcquisitions #FoodIndustry #FoodandBeverage #ConsumerTrends #InvestmentBanking https://lnkd.in/gT4AWgMW

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I think consumer feedback is often under used by emerging CPG brands… Coming from a Kraft Foods general management upbringing and then experiencing start-ups for many years, I’m often thinking about which “big company” practices could bring value to young emerging companies while not screwing up their great entrepreneurial culture and founder brilliance. The one area I continue to see a gap in is “entrepreneurial” consumer feedback/market research—the lack of fast/low cost consumer research options (or even confirmation research) discussed to prevent a low velocity SKU to get delisted, to maximize brand communication, and avoid wasted spend or lost opportunity on the back end. There are some great research companies out there, but their costs (while valid and worth it) are just not in the ballpark for what many founders want to spend for or go through the time on.?Sometimes it’s a lot more natural for founders to go with their gut and not get bogged down by research.?And I totally get this, and it does work in many instances.?? I just wish there were more options out there to efficiently confirm purchase interest between two packages or between new innovation ideas to complement founder gut.?In the end, it could save the emerging brand money…. Thought I’d reach out to the linkedin community, PLEASE not from research companies selling their research, but from founders/emerging brand marketers who have been through this dilemma and have found some consumer feedback very helpful and fitting for emerging brand bootstrap budget and speed (even if their own tools or alternative ways they’ve brought in consumers more)???This sharing might help more companies maximize their moves in the future…so hope it helps… thanks! #ConsumerFeedback #jcbgrowth

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Everything happens for a reason. Understanding the 'Why' behind sports nutrition product consumption can help you better meet your customers' needs. A recent Prinova survey found that energy, post-exercise recovery, and muscle growth were among people's top goals. However, goals did vary depending on gender, with men more likely to prioritize recovery while women leaned more towards hydration and weight management. Has this sparked some ideas for products? You can learn about sports nutrition goals and more nutrition trends in Prinova's Market Reports. Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/e_HRycFR #WeArePrinova #PrinovaGlobal #SportsNutrition #Goals

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AB InBev?has reported a rise of?2.6% in first-quarter sales, in line with forecasts, but the impact of a roughly year-old U.S boycott of key brand Bud Light continued to hurt the brewer. AB InBev also sold slightly more?beer?than anticipated, with volumes falling 0.6% versus the 1% anticipated by analysts. Own beer volumes declined by 1.3%, while non-beer volumes rose by 3.5%. Read more https://lnkd.in/dCKmtukA

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Time will tell if there is any kernel of truth to these rumors about UNFI going private. The natural/organic CPG industry has been so inextricably intertwined with a publicly traded UNFI supply chain for so long, it’s hard to predict what kind of secondary/tertiary impacts this would have. Any instability on a scale this large could cause some ripple effects. A privately held company can have very different motives and KPIs from a publicly traded one. What we’ve always said at Pod Foods is that the duopolistic national supply chain needs to evolve in order for innovation to flourish. We built a national distribution model to coexist with UNFI’s (and others) not to compete with it, directly. The best approach for the industry as a whole is to diversify, away from putting too many of the eggs in one basket. Strategic National secondary distribution benefits CPG innovation, protects retailers, and maintains speed to shelf of differentiation. #cpg #innovation #diversification Flowspace Simon Huntley Wayne Bennett George Milton

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In this episode of The Natural List, co-hosts Jessica Rubino and Adrienne Smith are joined by nutrition experts Jessie Shafer, RD and Debra Eschmeyer. According to Eschmeyer, two out of three?children on average drink?a sugary beverage every day. Moreover, children consume approximately fifty-three pounds of added #sugar per year. To combat this acclimation to extremely sweet products, many #CPG brands are starting to reduce added sugar and natural sweeteners in children’s products and increasing nutrients like fiber and protein. Bottom line: when it comes to sweetness, less is more. Listen here: https://utm.io/ugPXr #naturalproducts #brands #lowsugar #childrensnutrition

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"Buckle up for your Macro Minute—where the big trends meet bite-sized insights!" Kaleigh Theriault and I are back with a Sizzling Summer update to the BevAl business. As we navigate through the summer season, the beverage alcohol industry continues to experience dynamic shifts across key categories: ? ?? Beer: Dollar sales are down by -2.8% with volume dropping by -4.9%, reflecting a continued decline post-4th of July. While Imports and Super Premium beers are seeing positive momentum, Domestic Premium and Craft are pulling down overall category growth. ? ?? Wine: The wine segment remains in decline, with dollar sales down by -2.1% and volume by -3.9%. The top 10 brand families are a mixed bag, driven by varying consumer demands for momentum and innovation. Expect these declines to impact the full year's numbers as we move through the rest of the summer. ? ?? Spirits: Spirits are evolving, showing resilience with a slight dollar growth of -0.5% and volume increase of +1.5%. Ready-to-Drink (RTD) options are leading the charge with a +13.8% increase, alongside traditional spirits like Tequila (+4.9%) and Cordials (+0.2%), which are also fueling growth. ? ?? RTD: Viewed as a standalone mega-category, RTDs are facing slight declines in both dollar sales (-0.2%) and volume (-4.0%). However, spirits-based RTDs are thriving (+13.8%), though FMBs and Seltzers are beginning to show signs of decline. Innovation beyond flavor will be key to unlocking further growth potential for the rest of 2024. ? The reporting paints a picture of an industry in flux, where renewed strategic innovation and consumer alignment will be crucial to driving growth across all categories. ?? Q4 entertaining and gifting are just around the corner and as important as ever. Wishing everyone a successful conclusion to summer selling. What do you call a dog at the beach in August? A hot dog! ???? Why did the ice cream truck break down? Because of all the rocky roads! ???? ? #BeverageAlcohol #IndustryTrends #Innovation #ConsumerInsights #MacroMinute

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