Janice Marquardt

What is the most valuable commodity in Supply Chain Management? (clue: same answer if you insert Life for SCM)... Time.?But Time is a hard concept to wrap your arms around so it’s helpful to have specific examples of how and why Time is so valuable. ‘Buying’ time can be a powerful competitive lever and one that a company can leverage quickly. It is at the heart of another central theme that often suffers from lip service and generalization: Agility. Upstream supply disruptions are good examples of how some companies can ‘buy’ more time than others.?In this case the disruption is to aluminum* supply.?The companies that bought more time than others did it in three ways: 1. Knowing about the disruptive event (size, location, impact) before others. 2. Knowing how the supplier is connected to their supply network and production. 3. Having plans in place (even if not specific to this event) that enabled action to be taken quickly. It sounds simple but most companies have not put the processes in place to optimize these actions (and every company can improve). If you make cars or supply those that do, I’d recommend reading this report that explains the challenges and provides case studies as to how some OEMs have created processes that ‘buy’ them Time...https://lnkd.in/eXDSjjU6 (worth a read even if you are not in the auto industry as many of the lessons are transferable). * Even after 25 years in the US I still get blank stares when I say Aluminum (and Tomato). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #supplychainrisk #supplychainriskmanagement Daniel Stanton, Brian Laung Aoaeh, CFA, Radu Palamariu, Rushit Shah, Dr. Marcell Vollmer, Sheri R. Hinish, Wolfgang Lehmacher, Benjamin Gordon, Stan Aronow, Joe Carson, Greg Schlegel CPIM, CSP, Jonah, Scott Luton, Alan Amling, Marian Temmen, Rob Handfield, Prof. Dr. Larry Wigger, Dr. Klaus Dohrmann, Gary S. Lynch, Dr. Karsten Machholz, Tom Raftery, Chris Peters, Fathi Tlatli, Ron Hesse, Laura Lorenzetti, Phil LeBeau, Kelly Thomas, Sime Curkovic, Jason Miller, Nick Wildgoose

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FTC Bans Noncompetes…for most but not all. While there are already lawsuits agaisnt the rule making, we expect to see a change in how current and future non-competes are enforced. #transportation #logistics #rail #leadership #competition #culturematters

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One Great Thing That Jimmy Carter Did for the Supply Chain (And You and Me) Jimmy Carter accomplished several notable things, but the standout was deregulation. As Adam Smith pointed out, the market is far more efficient than regulatory mandates. Carter signed: ? The Staggers Rail Act of 1980: which allowed railroads to adjust rates, negotiate private contracts, and restructure networks. ? The Motor Carrier Act of 1980: which removed federal entry controls and facilitated rate reductions for carriers. Both measures increased competition and lowered costs for shippers and consumers (you and me). They also eliminated many inefficient operators and drove railroad consolidation. I am confident that we would not have such a vibrant economy today without Jimmy. The author with Adam Smith

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Yesterday's jobs report has caused an undue amount of fear that the U.S. economy is on the brink of a recession. Just as I've cautioned that demand conditions in the for-hire trucking sector are unlikely to become bullish in the 2nd half of 2024, I equally would urge caution about concluding that a recession is imminent. I say this based on data. One chart below. Thoughts: ?Forget the inverted yield curve; the best predictor of normal recessions is employment in residential building construction. You will see sharp downturns ahead of the 1990, 2001, and 2008-2009 recessions. In contrast, residential construction employment continues to trend up on a seasonally adjusted basis (note, there was a bit of a scare in 2023, but as I wrote about recently, we have seen real investment in permanent residential structures and improvements increase in 2024 from 2023, consistent with 2024's employment uptick). ?Historically, downturns in chemical manufacturing are a strong predictor of recessions (https://lnkd.in/gV_hhN4Y). Seasonally adjusted chemical production has been strengthening, the opposite of what we would expect. ?We all agree that the balance of trucking demand and supply tightened in June. It seems highly unlikely this would happen yet, just 2 weeks later, the labor market would have weakened substantially (which is the period picked up by the surveys). Implication: as Jesse R. noted in his recent post, folks need to relax about yesterday's jobs data. Unless we have a massive energy shock in the next few weeks, we will see the FOMC cut rates in September (possibly even 50 basis points). Assuming we see about 100 basis points shaved off the federal funds rate by early 2025, we should see the improvement in demand needed to bring on the next bull market pricing cycle for truckload carriers. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #markets #freight #trucking

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One question I frequently am asked is what indicators I examine to make predictions about demand trends in for-hire trucking. While not an all-inclusive list, here are some of my favorite indicators (some familiar, others less so). ?Shown below, industrial production of coating, engraving, and heat treating establishments (NAICS 3328) has historically been a strong directional predictor of trucking demand (e.g., sharp increases in 2014 and mid-2017 - 2018, drops in 2015-2016 and 2019). Data from https://lnkd.in/gS3JcG7a ?Institute for Supply Management's new orders sub-index for the PMI data. ?Capacity utilization across all manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Board. Available from https://lnkd.in/gVUJ74ru. ?Inflation adjusted spending on single-family housing starts, multi-family starts, and improvements from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ?Existing single-family home sales. Data from ?Inflation adjusted spending on warehousing construction from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ?Fracking activity from either the Federal Reserve Board or Bureau of Economic Analysis. ?Inventories to sales for machinery wholesalers from the U.S. Census Bureau (https://lnkd.in/ggc9ECg7). Implication: reading demand for the trucking industry is challenging, as many sectors generate demand for freight that needs hauled by trucks. I've found integrating data from the above series, plus others, tends to provide a good sense for the direction of trucking freight demand. As I'll be sharing more this week (and you can infer from the chart below), demand conditions remain muted (as reflected by Knight-Swift Transportation and Old Dominion Freight Line Q3 earnings). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #logistics

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Calling All Supply Chain Pros – Know Someone Who Can Help Oliver Murphy? I recently caught up with Olly from SLOWE Living. He’s looking to make some strategic improvements in his logistics, distribution, and manufacturing processes. His goal? Boost efficiency, cut costs, and keep SLOWE’s commitment to quality and sustainability intact. If you’ve got expertise in furniture logistics, supply chain, or manufacturing—or know someone who does—I’d love to connect. Here’s what we’re aiming for: Optimised Distribution: Enhancing delivery routes to cut costs while keeping the customer experience spot-on. Manufacturing Efficiency: Exploring sustainable production methods that save time and resources. Inventory & Supply Chain Solutions: Creating a nimble, scalable operation that can adapt to SLOWE’s growth. Olly’s team at SLOWE is doing amazing work creating beautifully crafted, sustainable furniture, and we want to make sure it reaches customers efficiently and affordably. If you or someone you know has tackled these kinds of challenges in the furniture space, drop me or Olly a message. Always open to connecting with industry experts and sharing insights that can make a difference. Cheers for any intros or advice in advance!???

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When I worked at Ford Motor Company, I ran the logistics for the second-largest PDC in the country, one of two that Ford owned at the time, and they had nine PDCs across the country. I decommissioned that facility, which was close to 700,000 sq ft, and helped launch a brand-new Distribution Center called an HVC, a High-Velocity Center that housed smaller parts only under 48" in length. This center stored thousands of SKUs, and managing the operation was as complex as it gets. We also had to build a cross-dock facility close to where my HVC was located so that we could blend inbound extended-length > 48" material coming in from Michigan that was going to the same dealer, which was multiple ones on each truck from (18 - 24) the night before so that my dedicated fleet could run (45 -48) routes early the next day. These dealers had a mix of VOR, Interim (LTL), and stock orders that moved daily as my trailers were their rolling warehouses. The routes had to move daily as the dealers' inventory holding rooms were maybe 10 x 10 and had to hold multiple rolling cages and loose parts. My OTD was greater than 98% every week. What we built had to be duplicated at 17 other HVC facilities in major cities across the country, and let's say I spent little time at home for months on end. So, what we did was unique, as there was an evolution to storing and shipping material unlike anything we had seen at the time. This brings me to another possible evolution of distribution that we have not heard about, which I mentioned during a recent podcast I was on. We know that a (DC) is Distribution Center (RDC) Regional Distribution Center Is it possible we'll see an (SRDC) similar to an E-comm facility that will speed up even more verticals outside your traditional E-comm merchandise? RGTX Logistics Solutions. The things we think about outside of freight.

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I read an article recently titled, “11 Things I Knew Before Starting A Supply Chain Management Career.” I approached reading this with an open mind. And it turns out many of the opinions mentioned by supply chain practitioners align with when I used to be deep in the trenches working with carriers and shippers as well as running a recruitment desk. What seems to be consistent: ?? Every day will be different. ?? There will always be numerous problems that need to be solved. ?? Every company and industry’s supply chain will look different. ?? How you interpret and communicate data findings is critical for career growth. ?? Being analytical is necessary, but how you work within teams, manage your people, and answer to leadership might be even more necessary. ?? Providing answers and solutions quickly can be the difference in costing the company hundreds of thousands of dollars. ?? Just like in any career, seek as much mentorship as possible. Career paths are not often linear.?Just because you started as a Buyer, doesn’t mean you’re trapped in only becoming a Procurement Manager eventually, then possibly a VP of Procurement. I have not been on the Rasmussen University site much, but there are plenty of career resources for those curious about working in the supply chain/logistics field. See the article below.

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One type of index I put much less weight on when trying to read freight market dynamics (and more broadly economic activity) is consumer sentiment measures. This isn't because one of the main consumer sentiment indexes is published by the University of Michigan, the key rival for both my current employer—Michigan State University—as well as where I received my PhD, The Ohio State University. Rather, my concern is more fundamental in that consumer sentiment data is now too attached to politics. One chart below, which was published by The Wall Street Journal here https://lnkd.in/gRQk78ud (I'm just reproducing it as published). Thoughts: ?This chart shows the consumer sentiment index by political party affiliation. Once President Trump was elected in 2016, Republican sentiment soared while Democratic sentiment soured. The script flipped in 2020 when President Biden was elected. And now we have a repeat of 2016 this November. ?Why do I find this problematic? Simple: consumer sentiment is less linked to economic fundamentals than we would like in a highly political charged age. For example, EVERYONE went out and spent like crazy in March and April 2021 due to the joint combination of COVID-19 vaccination rollout as well as record fiscal stimulus. Implication: while consumer sentiment receives a lot of attention, I tend to downplay these data. I'm a strong believer that measures such as inflation adjusted investment in residential structures, oil and gas well drilling, momentum of manufacturing new orders, various industrial production measures, various inflation adjusted wholesale trade data (both sales and inventories), import data, and data on inflation adjusted retail sales and inventories, are more useful for shippers and carriers to anticipate freight demand. #supplychain #ecommerce #shipsandshipping #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking

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Noi Mahoney FreightWaves ?? Industry Alert: Job Cuts in Logistics ?? Over 1,300 layoffs are hitting logistics companies across Texas, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Georgia. These firms cite tough market conditions and a loss of customers as the primary reasons. Excellent article written by Noi Mahoney at Freightwaves.com... ?? Key Takeaway: While some sectors are booming, others like logistics are facing significant challenges. Some Logistics areas are still thriving and it is critical to pay attention to the industry within that sector that is experiencing growth versus one's that are not. It's crucial to stay informed about industry-specific trends to navigate these uncertain times effectively. #JobMarket #Logistics #IndustryTrends #CareerAdvice #EconomicUpdate

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I went down a Reddit rabbit hole recently researching what anonymous posters had to say about a career in supply chain management. About all of it was positive, but some were wondering if it’s easy to be promoted with a career in supply chain? Since I’ve been involved in the field for over 20 years, I thought it would be appropriate to give my 2 cents. Just to clarify for those considering entering the field, there is no magic bullet to getting promoted. Your focus should be on making a positive impact on the organization’s supply chain by helping it meet its financial goals. But you also have to schmooze with the right people and possibly have a few breaks in your favor. Have you heard the statement, “Luck is when preparation meets opportunity?” Let’s not even focus on the term “promoted”, think of “career advancement” instead. And yes, there is an abundance of opportunities to develop skills, work cross-functionally with teams that support the company's supply chain, and take part in interesting work that benefits the business. When you get exposure to this, you will be advancing your career whether it’s inside the organization or outside the organization. Some career paths move faster than others, but if you take the necessary steps to build your skills and influence the right people, there is no reason why you can’t take flight to supply chain stardom.?

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I was reading something yesterday that really stuck with me as the year winds down. In supply chain, we know that things don’t always go as planned. Challenges, delays, and mistakes are part of the journey. It’s easy to get caught in regret over what could have been. What if, instead of dwelling on the setbacks, we focused on the lessons we’ve learned and how we can use them to improve? Whether in supply chain or any other industry, growth is about adaptability. Shifting from regret to progress allows us to build stronger systems, teams, and outcomes. For me, I’m focusing on applying those lessons more intentionally next year—building on what worked and evolving where I can. #SupplyChain #GrowthMindset #PersonalDevelopment

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I think we have seen a few of these posts recently... Biden wants to triple tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. President Joe Biden wants to boost the current 7.5% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from China to 25%, an idea he not-so-subtly introduced while campaigning in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where US Steel is based. US Steel has become a thorny election issue for the president, since the company’s efforts to sell itself to Japan’s Nippon Steel have drawn ire from unions and raised concerns over foreign ownership. But, what are we to do as a Trade Community? The language in these published articles are written in a manner that makes this a battle cry for the US Steel industry. However, I would like to see the data presented showing how increased duty rates did anything but make goods more expensive? When the Section 232 duty was implemented to "protect" the US Steel industry all it did was increase the cost for US Steel thereby making the commodity more expensive for all downstream production: Data found in: ITC report on implication of sections 232 and 301 - KPMG United States

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So I posted this a little while back, and it seems to still be getting attention. But I want to propose an alternative to the tariff proposal by the current administration. Alternative Idea: What if the US Government treated Key Infrastructure Materials, such as Steel and Aluminum as it does Oil? These items are already commoditized, their pricing is set in the commodities market, so they are similar in that regard. To ensure US Steel as an industry is protected, couldn't the US Government buy Steel like it does Oil so to have reserves. The Steel can then be used in infrastructure or military production. (Yes the steel would need to be in various forms and types, but this is a high level idea, the details still need fleshed out.) The material cost can be backed out of contracts and the US Government would be able to have full traceability on the material used in their own projects. This helps address the problems with national security as well as industry protection and job sustainability. What do you think?

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As we gear up to celebrate National Supply Chain Day, I thought it'd be a great opportunity to share a bit of my journey with all of you. With over two decades (24 years to be exact!) in the supply chain hustle, I've seen a lot, learned a ton, and still get excited about the innovations shaping our industry. From the get-go as a young buck in logistics, diving into the worlds of fleet management, procurement, and fulfillment operations, it's been quite the ride. I've always believed that to stay ahead, you've gotta keep innovating and adapting. Holding onto my Six Sigma Black Belt tight, I've aimed to bring some fresh perspectives into how we manage the flow of goods. Being recognized as a "Logistics Pro to Know" was a humbling nod to the work we've been doing, but what really keeps me going is the impact we make every day. Ensuring that our customers have what they need, when they need it. And with the amazing team we have, it's been possible to drive growth, boost efficiency, and ramp up customer satisfaction in ways I only dreamed of when I started out. Navigating the wild world of e-commerce and logistics at FinditParts has been like being the captain of a ship in uncharted waters - thrilling and a bit daunting. But hey, steering through the complexities to ensure our heavy-duty truck parts are just a click away for our customers? That's my kind of adventure. It's rewarding to transform an industry, one truck part at a time. Taking the helm at FindItParts meant leading a supply chain revolution, no biggie. It's like being a superhero, but instead of a cape, I have spreadsheets and a strategic plan. Tackling the e-commerce logistics beast and coming out on top with a streamlined, effective purchasing experience? Just another day at the office. As the architect behind the curtain, my role is to make supply chain problems vanish, poof, like magic — though with a hefty dose of data analysis and strategic negotiations. Sporting my Six Sigma Black Belt, I'm not merely combating inefficiencies; I'm on a mission to restore harmony in the logistics realm. Think of me as the Iron Man/Tony Stark of supply chain management — leading the charge with innovation, a flair for the dramatic, and the ability to turn even the most daunting challenges into opportunities. Who knew logistics could be this super? #SupplyChain #Partnerships #Growth #FinditParts #NSCD2024 #Finditparts ????

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As reshoring gains momentum, U.S. manufacturing hubs offer great opportunities to build stronger logistics networks and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. ?? Great post below on domestic production, emerging trends and opportunities for growth. #Transportation #Logistics #Reshoring #SupplyChain #USManufacturing

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Logistics executives warn that the remaining hours before a potential strike at ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, set to begin after midnight Monday, are critical for moving out as much trade as possible. A shutdown could severely impact the functioning of the U.S. economy. Data from ImportGenius, which tracks bills of lading for cargo containers, shows that 54,456 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) arrived on Friday at the 14 ports covered by the master contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX). The approximate value of that freight was upward of $2.7 billion, based on an MDS Transmodal estimate of $50,000 per container. For the weekdays between Sept. 23-27, a total of 273,417 TEUs were imputed through customs at these ports with a value of approximately $13.67 billion. Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, said the enormity of the freight volumes arriving Friday alone shows the scramble logistics companies are in to get the containers off the dock by close of business Monday. “Importers, in coordination with their logistic partners, should try to clear as many of their containers off open terminals where possible to avoid possible delays in acquiring their inventory,” said Baer. On average, it takes one week to clear out one day of a port closure. As much as 43% to 49% of total containerized goods entering the U.S are processed through ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Michael Kanko, CEO of ImportGenius, tells CNBC the economic importance of the ports impacted by an ILA strike is profound. “As our data shows, a strike of even a week will block the flow of hundreds of thousands of containers into the U.S.,” he said. “These ports are also a major gateway into the U.S. for refrigerated produce. Time isn’t on the side of importers.”? The ILA is North America’s largest longshoremen’s union. The union said in a statement sent to the press on Monday morning that USMX “continues to block the path toward a settlement on a new Master Contract by refusing ILA’s demands for a fair and decent contract and seems intent on causing a strike at all ports from Maine to Texas beginning in almost 12 hours.” The ILA has said its 85,000 members, “joined in solidarity by tens of thousands of dockworkers and maritime workers around the world,” will hit the picket lines at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 1, and strike at all Atlantic and Gulf coast ports from Maine to Texas. About 50,000 ILA union members work at the ports of Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, North Carolina, Baltimore, Norfolk, Virginia, Charleston, South Carolina, Savannah, Georgia, Jacksonville, Florida, Tampa, Florida, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama, and Houston. No negotiations were underway and none were planned before the Monday deadline, according to?a Reuters report.

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