Brexit: Not As Simple As It Sounds
I don’t envy my UK friends and colleagues as they head to vote on the Brexit referendum. Despite how it sounds, it’s not that simple and will have significant consequences regardless of the the outcome. Personally, and despite my support for democratic processes, I don't think it should ever have come to this. Plebiscites of this nature, which can raise complex social issues — let alone economic — are almost always divisive. It is a salutary lesson for Australia if the Coalition wins the July 2 election, and proceeds with its plan to hold a plebiscite on same sex marriage.
Neither side in the UK has covered itself in glory during the campaign, from what I see at a distance. The discussion seems to have been reduced to an awful spectacle of pro- and anti- xenophobia…and worse, racism. It should never have come to this, and those ugly themes will reverberate through Britain for some time to come, regardless of the outcome. As we’ve seen, the consequences of this can be tragic.
The consequences of “Leave”, if that succeeds, especially concern me. Apart from the logical ascendancy of Boris Johnson to PM, and strengthening the arm of UKIP (shudder!), what happens next? Yes, there is a two year regulatory and mechanical process, but how will life change for the people of the UK? One thing is for certain, it will not be a return to some nostalgic concept of the “the old days”; indeed, if that occurred, it would be frightening — the UK I visited in the early 1970’s (just as it signed the accession treaty) was one of managed economic and social decline that had its origins well before the UK joined the EU, and was certainly not a consequence of it.
One seemingly attractive angle on the “Leave” argument makes reference to those European countries that, for various reasons, have decided to “Stay Out”. These concern me, and I hope UK voters are sufficiently discerning not to be persuaded by them. “Staying Out” versus “Leaving” is the difference between not getting married, and getting divorced. Staying “single” may certainly have advantages, but these cannot be compared to the consequences of “divorce”, which is based on commitments, and especially dependencies — especially after 40 years!
The UK should “Remain”. The EU is certainly less than perfect, and the UK is not the only country that has concerns. This ought to be used to create the basis for alliances to push through change. That is the mature way to respond. “Leaving”, especially without being fully aware of the consequences, will not solve the UK’s economic and social problems; it will likely exacerbate them.
Be careful what you ask for!
50 years in Australia now retired in Cornwall UK.
8 年More bollocks that your last one. Have you ever been there? There is more interest , excitement and genuine positive outlook than anywhere else in the world.....5th largest economy...Theresa reminds me of the Maggie days...watch out Spain if you want a stoush over Gibraltar...Boris has more smarts and fun in him than all your lot combined....I’m afraid it’s you who are looking bland and underdone internationally ....you may think of looking for a conservative to brighten up your dreary looking future landscape. We could lend you one ..but not until you ask nicely. Tree hugging, earth warming, welfare mad, boring lefty farts....Australia has lost it’s ticker old mate..... have your referendum on same sex marriage ...that’s your highlight and priority for next year...God help you....
Business Development Manager at Smartech
8 年Britain 1970's pre Europe - high inflation, high unemployment, high interest rates, high number of days lost to industrial disputes, low productivity and brilliant British cars like the Austin Allegro and Morris Marina. These were the good old days !!!!
50 years in Australia now retired in Cornwall UK.
8 年Do we think they got the message?.......the luvvies, the chattering classes, the politicians, the experts, the large multi nationals, the BBC, the Scots, the 1/2 witted celebs, school teachers, the Trade Unions, foreign leaders especially Obama &Turnbull, and finally the Green ones.....yes there is a great future ahead for Great Britain and we shall now see it. Good bye David hello Boris and a new type of politician. I remember on the odd occasional a New Zealand leg of lamb on the table on a Sunday lunchtime at 22 Green Drive many year ago. Well I hope when Wendy and I get to Cornwall that we too can have a NZ or indeed Australian leg of lamb but definitely not a German Lammkeulle...Wendy and I both looking forward now to our future in our own green and pleasant land....
And now it gets really messy! First, the UK Government is not bound by the referendum result, this being the result of an unwritten Constitution. As the FT's analyst summarises: A vote for Brexit will not be determinative of whether the UK will leave the EU. That potential outcome comes down to the political decisions which then follow before the Article 50 notification. The policy of the government (if not of all of its ministers) is to remain in the EU. The UK government may thereby seek to put off the Article 50 notification, regardless of political pressure and conventional wisdom. So, a referendum result in the UK provides a political mandate (to whom? Unclear.) but is not an “instruction” to the Parliament as would be the case in Australia. Secondly, I understand both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to "Remain" (Wales?). While this means nothing because of the UK's first past the post electoral system, it actually means a lot in terms of the messy politics that will play out over coming months. My prediction: a lot of hand-wringing, finger-pointing, shouting -- all accompanied by various economic gyrations leading to a General Election on the issue....which results in the UK Remaining. I could be wrong!