The Edmonds Market, 2009 to 2019
Before on our blog we’ve said that one of the most essential things we can say about real estate is that the market is always subject to change. In a way, this is like one of those paradoxes: the only “stable” thing about the market is that it’s never actually stable, it’s always changing in response to all sorts of causes. The number of things which can cause the market to change is seemingly limitless. Identifying the exact causes behind a change is not always easy; sometimes there can be a dispute as to whether something is a cause or not, and oftentimes even when a cause is clearly identified there is disagreement as to its precise degree of influence. Look at something as colossal as the housing crisis in 2008-09: in that situation, we can clearly see that many different things contributed to the dramatic decline of the market. But, even in that situation, figuring out the exact degree to which each individual cause contributed to the end result is very, very difficult, if not impossible. Markets are part science, part data, but they are also a big part intuition and experience.
In previous posts, we’ve looked at the Edmonds market from different angles. We’ve looked at down payment sizes on a median value Edmonds home in order to gauge the financial demands of an Edmonds home. We’ve also looked at recent market trends. These different research studies have given good insight into the dynamics of the Edmonds market. We have a good idea of the sort of finances involved with a purchase of a median value Edmonds home, as well as projections for the near future. Today, we’re going to examine the Edmonds market, in terms of median home values, over the course of the past decade. We’re going to look at how the market has changed between 2009 and 2019, and then discuss possible causes for these changes. As we’ll see, the Edmonds market has changed in tandem with the Seattle market, and the two are certainly linked together. As the Seattle market has risen or fallen, so has the Edmonds market.
Let’s get into the numbers which show how the Edmonds market has evolved during the past decade and then explore some of the possible causes.
Edmonds Market, Median Home Values, 2009-2019
First, let’s state the numbers on the current situation: as of January, 2020, the city of Edmonds has a median home value of roughly $614,854. The Edmonds market is expected to increase by about 1.8% over the upcoming 12 months. The Edmonds market has changed a lot during the past 10 years. Between 2009 and 2019, the Edmonds market saw huge changes in home values. In certain periods, the Edmonds market saw double-digit gains in home values!
Let’s start in December of 2009. At that time, the Edmonds market had a median home value of roughly $425,000. This value includes homes of all types – condos, townhomes, single family residences, and so forth. If we skip ahead to December of 2010, we can see a sizable decline: the median home value in Edmonds at this later date was approximately $393,000. That’s a decline of nearly 13% in a single year! Skipping ahead to December of 2011, we can see another large decline as the median home value fell to roughly $358,000. In February, 2012, the Edmonds market reached the lowest point it would reach between 2009 and 2019 when the median home value fell to $353,000. From this low point in early 2012, the Edmonds market saw a steady increase in its home values on a year-over-year basis during the next 7 years up to 2019. In December, 2012, the median home value rose to $371,000, and by December, 2013 it was roughly $408,000. Between our original starting point in 2009 and this point in December, 2013, the Edmonds market fell and then rose in a way which resembles a “U shape” on a graph.
In December, 2014, the Edmonds market rose to a median home value of $412,000. By December, 2015, home values increased to $459,000, which is higher than where values were located at the beginning of our study. As of December, 2016, home values had climbed up to $517,000, and then rose again to $575,000 in December, 2017. Home values were at $611,000 by December, 2018, and then by December, 2019, we arrive at our current approximation of a bit below $615,000. That’s almost $190,000 from our original starting figure! The market in Edmonds underwent uproarious change during the decade of 2009-2019. It’s not common at all for a market to experience this level of change over a relatively short period of time. But, as we see, sometimes this kind of change happens.
Edmonds Market Interconnected with the Seattle Market
To what can we attribute this tidal wave of change in the home values of the Edmonds market? There are certainly multiple causes behind this change, but one cause is the increased demand in the Seattle market. If we examine the numbers of the Seattle market during 2009-2019, we can see that the Seattle market underwent changes which were quite similar to what we’ve seen in the Edmonds market during this same stretch of time. In other words, what’s happened in Edmonds essentially mirrors what has happened in Seattle. Seattle home prices rose tremendously during the 2009-2019 period as the market rebounded following the housing crisis and demand increased for various reasons. The Edmonds market apparently soaked up some of the increased demand as buyers flocked to Edmonds as a viable alternative to Seattle real estate. Logically, this makes sense, as we know that these two markets are clearly interconnected, and demand in one market can quickly spread to neighboring markets. Would-be Seattle buyers likely flocked to Edmonds for more reasonable prices, and then over time this increased demand for Edmonds homes led to increases in median home prices. This increased demand then eventually levelled off as not enough new buyers kept entering the market to continue pushing prices up with the same force.
Consult with an Experienced Edmonds Broker
Again, this is just one possible cause among others. But this is certainly one of the most important causes. We know that Seattle has seen a lot of population growth in recent years, and this growth has led to home demand. And this home demand in Seattle has certainly been a causal force in the increases we’ve seen in the Edmonds market. Understanding past market trajectories can be a huge asset when it comes to negotiating prices and determining whether a given price is desirable. This is why you need to consult with an experienced broker when you enter the market in Edmonds. If you’re planning to enter the market soon, you need to consult with a broker who knows how the market has changed in the past and the most likely trajectories the market can take in the future. Part of this comes down to being aware of what’s happening in neighboring markets and keeping on top of other important macroeconomic and societal forces. Stay tuned as we will come back and discuss the causes behind the increases in the Edmonds market in later posts.
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