CEO of Future Today Institute ? Global Leader in Strategic Foresight ? Quantitative Futurist ? Prof at NYU Stern ? Cyclist
In a bold move reshaping America's #AI landscape, the new Trump administration appears to be embracing a framework to restrict allies' access to US AI infrastructure while aiming to curb China's technological advancement. Rather than sweeping AI rules, it looks like deregulation is coming, along with a patchwork of sector-specific oversight. This new direction, coupled with the just-announced $500bn Stargate project, plus the potential increased defense spending on AI, will result in a high-stakes gamble that deregulation and private sector innovation alone will position America to maintain its AI supremacy over China. But, but, but... there's a risk. What if this accelerates a dangerous decoupling between the world's two largest economies? Middle powers are already forced to choose between American or Chinese tech ecosystems. It seems like this aggressive stance could backfire by pushing neutral countries toward China and accelerating the fragmentation of the global tech landscape - exactly the kind of technological multipolarity I've been warning about. (I was in Kenya a few weeks ago and already saw this playing out.) More on Stargate here: https://lnkd.in/gbkvDeJZ
Vanessa Mathias
1 个月
When seeing the news I did remember The Big Nine, where you anticipated the significant advantage of China’s centralized AI strategy, and I can’t help but reflect on that from Brazil, a middle power (if not an "NPC" I add...) caught in this superpower rivalry. It's 2025, and it feels like we’re stuck in a "Cold War" déjà-vu. Supremacy seems to be the only thing that matters now. As part of "the rest of the world," will we be forced to choose a side, aligning with one AI superpower and alienating the other? Or will we risk sanctions and exclusion? This brings the question of what will drive this new global division: incompatibility of tech ecosystems, or governmental policies, sanctions, and economic pressure? At this point, I can’t help but hope for fragmentation. The thought of all social networks and communication being filtered through the lens of just 3 or 4 people who think alike sends chills down my spine. Perhaps in reimagining this “techpocalypse,” open-source solutions could offer countries more choices, and by extension, sovereignty? What if the ability to innovate within our own borders could lead to a world that is more decentralized and resilient? Tks for the food of thought, this gave me a lot to think
Edward Zeimis
1 个月
Deregulation and private sector innovation might drive short-term AI gains, but long-term leadership demands more than technological supremacy—it demands trust and alignment. Forcing allies into exclusive ecosystems could erode the global collaboration that fuels innovation, not just fragment the tech landscape. The bigger risk might be in losing influence over the global AI narrative itself. Leadership isn’t just about who builds the best tools—it’s about who defines the rules for their use.
Mich Herbst
1 个月
This strategy risks accelerating a multipolar world—not just in tech, but across all domains. For regions like Africa, this deepening U.S.-China divide forces difficult choices that could limit innovation and sovereignty. By pushing neutral nations toward China’s ecosystem, the U.S. risks isolating itself globally. A more inclusive, cooperative approach would not only strengthen global collaboration but also better position the U.S. to lead in an interconnected future, benefiting regions like Africa that are seeking balanced partnerships.
I had so many reactions reading this my response was too long. Data and technology reflect human values and priorities, shaping societies for generations. Our decisions in measurement, system design, and governance impact not just immediate outcomes but the trajectory of societies. The current discourse on artificial intelligence governance exemplifies this, as nations reckon with choices that will mold technological advancements for years to come. https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/values-behind-data-technology-christine-haskell-ph-d--3f7qc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via
Laura M.
1 个月
Yes, and one of the primary backers is from Japan—this raises a question about the consistency of framing overseas investments as a 'threat' to American innovation. I'm having trouble finding consistency in how this is addressed, especially when it comes to foreign investments like these. This is regardless of whether the posture or process is the right one. "The OpenAI press release further?explains?that the project is crucial to maintaining “American leadership in AI” and will create hundreds of thousands of American jobs; with an initial commitment by the parties of $100 billion, Softbank has been listed as having financial responsibility and OpenAI will have operational responsibility." - https://www.forbes.com/sites/saibala/2025/01/22/project-stargate-a-500-billion-ai-venture-between-oracle-open-ai-nvidia--softbank-that-will-revolutionize-healthcare/
Paul Gibbons
1 个月
The problem is that Biden and Trump-1 policies have forced China into developing themselves technologies they would have bought.. so perversely, this Balkanization helps China in the long-run - they have had to learn to build infrastructure and are the stronger for it. In the short term, it may cost them, in the long-term highly unlikely. And Chinese AI is not very far behind (and ahead in some ways) of Silicon Valley AI... China leads the US in about half of my "top-ten" techs - certainly robotics and nanotech, arguably CRISPR. The world does better when humanity collaborates is one of my assumptions that is hard to prove.
Jeroen van Eijl
1 个月
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1 个月
Based on the way DJT is speaking about Canada, it wouldn’t surprise me if we started looking to China for more trade. They’ll need oil and gas for decades to come, and we have plenty. Perhaps this will be the Golden Age China has always dreamed of.
Jennifer Spykerman
1 个月
This is an interesting take that I hadn’t thought about. The fine line between economic and national security that come with the pitfalls associated with isolationism can have long lasting economic impacts indeed.
Futurist | Economist | Author | Speaker
1 个月America has never cared about Kenya - China’s influence - and actual aid - there is decades deep while America’s influence in Africa extended to “from a distance” war mongering in persuit of dictator cherry picking, exported consumer inflation and occasional oil price manipulation. Africa is not an American story / America is not and never was a main character in Africa’s story (Asian ties go far deeper and wider). Nothing new about this. By same token : the yuan properly understood is nothing but a colored-coin USD. The economic two-way codependency there is under understood. Whatever the superficial public / populist rhetoric *economic* mono polarity has never been more stable. Understanding geopolitics is deep (sometime dark) trend not new signal / news territory.