Business Council for Sustainable Development Australia的动态

Interesting read from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) latest Quarterly Economic Commentary. Against the backdrop of so many uncertainties across the international landscape, Irelands economy seems to be continuing to perform, with a positive outlook for the years ahead and a labour market operating close to full capacity. Challenges still remain though - geopolitical tensions and their impact on global trade flows, infrastructure bottlenecks in an economy operating at capacity, and the ongoing ability to manage a small open economy like Ireland. https://lnkd.in/eJqu-Rtr

Australia's Economy Struggles Australia's economy is struggling, with weak growth affecting the Australian dollar. Despite government efforts to boost public spending, consumer demand remains weak. Analysts describe it as a “two-speed economy,” where public investment offsets private sector stagnation, but this hasn't driven strong growth or improved consumer confidence. Corp Crunch brings you daily, trustworthy insights from the industry to keep you ahead in a dynamic world. Sign up now for a focused, ad-free reading experience you can trust https://buff.ly/4g0JFGi #CorpCrunch #CorpCrunchNews #DailyBusinessUpdates #DailyBusinessNews #GlobalNews #australiaeconomy #economicstruggles #dollardilemma #twospeedeconomy #publicvspprivate #growthchallenges #consumerconfidence #spendingboost #marketmood #economicoutlook

The latest midyear economic and fiscal outlook reveals key trends affecting Australia’s economy: 1. Lower Growth Forecasts: Economic growth has been downgraded, with expectations now at 1.75% for the fiscal year. Household consumption growth is also expected to be slower. 2. More Rebates on the Way: Rebates, including energy relief, will help ease inflation, keeping CPI within the RBA's target range. 3. Strong Labour Market: Despite the challenges, the Australian job market remains resilient with unemployment dropping to 3.9%. 4. China's Impact: China's economic slowdown continues to drag on Australia's export growth, with potential geopolitical risks. 5. Interest Rates: The possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut for February is very uncertain. As the economy faces these mixed signals, businesses and consumers alike will need to stay adaptable. #australianeconomy #economicoutlook #interestrates

Migration and trade “Next, the political economy of net overseas migration has its own challenges. Past migration waves have contributed positively to both the demand and supply sides of the Australian economy. But against the backdrop of a political backlash across much of the developed world, making the case for high rates of migration to sceptical voters is considerably harder when those same rates have most recently been associated with an extended period of falling GDP per capita. Then, there is the nexus between the role of the resource sector in delivering export growth, investment spending, income gains (via the lift to our terms of trade) and tax receipts, and the central place occupied by China as the dominant overseas market for Australian exports. For much of the current century, we have successfully doubled down on the gains from comparative advantage and specialisation in international trade, albeit at the price of relatively high levels of product and market concentration. While that bet has paid off handsomely to date, the associated risks are rising. Reliance on China as our main source of external demand has already faced headwinds from Beijing’s economic travails over the past year, and significant uncertainties surround US President Trump’s tariff plans and the prospects for intensified US-China geo-economic and geopolitical competition. The medium term poses yet more uncertainties, related to climate change and the energy transition, for key energy exports. Last year, Australia proved able to substitute public for private demand to an extent sufficient to stave off outright recession, but in a way that also confirmed that slow growth often entails an expanding government footprint. Ongoing changes — an ageing population and the growing demands of the care economy, the investment requirements of the energy transition, and ambitions to ramp up defence spending in response to a more insecure international environment — all point to a larger role for government.But that raises questions about the dangers of crowding out private sector activity, the potential consequences for economy-wide productivity, and the financing of these additional demands at a time when politicians (and their electorates) struggle to countenance significant reforms to either the revenue or expenditure sides of the budget.With a federal election imminent, perhaps this year will see our would-be leaders explain in more detail how they plan to meet these various challenges.”

The European Commission's Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast ?????????????????????? ?? ??.??% ?????????????? ???? ??????????????'?? ?????????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????, primarily due to a contraction in the multinational sector during the first half of the year. However, a robust ???????????????? ???? ?????????????????? ?????? ????????, with GDP ???????????????? ???? ???????? ???? ??.??%. This outlook suggests that while Ireland faces short-term economic challenges, particularly within its multinational sector, the medium-term prospects remain positive, indicating resilience and potential for significant growth in the near future. ?????????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ????????????'?? ?????????????????? ?? ???????????? ?????? ???????????????? ?????? ??????????????????????????: A stronger economy in 2025 could mean more job opportunities and stability, especially in industries linked to multinational companies like tech and pharmaceuticals. ?????????????? ??????????????????: If the economy grows and inflation stays low as predicted, everyday costs like groceries and energy bills may rise slowly. ???????????????????? ???????????????? ????????????????????: People might feel more confident about spending or making bigger financial decisions, like buying a home or starting a business, knowing the economy is on the upswing. ???????????????? ????????????????????????: With economic recovery, the government and private sector might invest more in housing, which could improve availability and affordability over time. ???????????????????????????? ?????? ??????????????????????: As the economy grows, there may be better opportunities to save, invest, or benefit from pensions and financial markets. While there might still be some bumps in 2024, the forecast suggests a brighter and more stable financial future for Irish people in 2025. Talk to our financial advisors—now is the perfect time to plan and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Get a Financial Planning Quote today! ?? https://bit.ly/4ggNFC4 https://lnkd.in/eYQKPCyu

Happy Weekend everyone! The OECD has issued the Economic Outlook, Volume 2024, Issue 2, last week. They analysed Australian economy between pages 103 and 105. Below are the key points in a nutshell: -- Economic Growth: Australia’s GDP growth slowed under tight monetary conditions, projected to rebound to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Headline inflation fell to 2.1% in 2024, within the target range, but core inflation remains higher. Gradual monetary easing is expected from 2025. --Labour Market: Unemployment has risen slightly but remains low. Labour shortages persist in key sectors like construction and health, despite strong post-pandemic immigration. --Fiscal Policy: Expansionary fiscal measures, including tax cuts and energy support, are aiding consumption, but fiscal consolidation is needed to address long-term pressures. Key Risks: --Persistent services inflation delaying monetary easing. --Reduced immigration could limit consumption growth and worsen labour shortages. --Australia’s exposure to global trade restrictions and China's economic fluctuations poses risks to export performance. --Strategic Focus: Policymakers are advised to promote labour adaptability, manage housing pressures without curbing immigration excessively, and prepare for transitions in climate, ageing, and digitalisation. -- Growing percentage of government debt against the GDP, from 55.1% in 2022 to 62.8% (as expected of page 104) in 2026. You can find the full text, in attached pdf.

"Stronger growth in the Republic’s economy has a?positive “spillover”?on the?North’s economy. That’s according to a new economic model developed jointly by the?Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and its UK counterpart the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). Both think tanks, with the help of employers’ group Ibec, have developed a macroeconomic tool to assess the impact of shocks — negative and positive — on the North’s economy." ?? Read more key findings: https://lnkd.in/ejpdJJCH ?? Read coverage in The Irish Times:

The latest PwC UK Economic Outlook shows that Scotland’s growth is expected to remain subdued compared with the fastest-growing regions – London and Northern Ireland. To see the data, click below ?? #Tech | #News

In the three months to September 2024, according to official statistics, U.S. output per hour worked was up by 8.9 per cent from its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2019, having expanded at annual rates between two per cent and 2.8 per cent over more than a year. Excellent work by Financial Post ? https://lnkd.in/gzenVCDx ? I have authored many articles on the economic and fiscal challenges facing countries around the world: Canada is currently running $40B budget deficit that is driving inflation. Canada productivity gap and innovation spending lags their peers. Australia is on path of running $10B budget deficit after years of running budget surpluses. United States has elected Donald Trump that is razor focused on government spending and economic growth. Canada continues to push high tax and excessive regulations that are driving concerns with productivity, innovation, and overall private sector performance. ? Australian Government United States Federal Government Pierre Poilievre Shannon Stubbs Government of Canada #Innovation #GDP #Productivity ? Challenges facing Research and Development (Innovation) in Canada - https://lnkd.in/gqZuR_wK GDP – Canada vs Australia - https://lnkd.in/gtCYKX7H

Business Update – 03 July 2024 1. **Australia's Competitiveness Hits 13-Year High**: According to the Swiss-based IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2024, Australia rose to 13th place out of 67 nations for competitiveness. This is the country's highest ranking in 13 years1. 2. **Employers Call for More Overseas Workers**: New research reveals that Australian workers are increasingly "not proficient in their roles," leading more than half of public sector employers to rely on foreigners to fill "skills gaps." Universities have been criticized for not adequately training graduates in basic employability skills1. 3. **Housing Sensitivity and Economic Risks**: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the sensitivity of certain countries, including Australia, to monetary policy changes, particularly through their housing markets. Australia is identified as one of the most vulnerable nations in this regard1. 4. **Super Funds Grow Strongly**: Superannuation funds continued to grow in the March quarter, with overall funds in the system reaching $3.85 trillion, up 11.3% compared to the previous year1. 5. **Optimism Amidst Stagnant Economy**: Economist Peter Martin suggests that although the current economic situation feels challenging, there is reason to be cheerful as help is on the way1. 6. **House Prices Expected to Rise**: KPMG forecasts that Australian property prices will increase by another 5% before the end of the year1. 7. **Rate Rise Bets by Traders**: Traders are betting that the Reserve Bank will resume its interest rate increases, with a more than 70% chance of additional tightening by November1. 8. **New Tax Brackets and Other Laws**: With the start of the 2024-25 financial year, several new rules come into effect, including changes to tax brackets and other regulations1. https://ow.ly/BB5h50Sufr1 ???? #BusinessNews #EconomyUpdates #Australia #accountants #tax