Tesla's "We, Robot" event - a rich portrait of an autonomous future, but not much to drive back home with. ?? In short: existing Tesla vehicle to be fully autonomous next year, Cybercab in the market 2026-2027 and will be a classic robotaxi; Robovan is a mass(ish)-transport autonomous solution that is also under development and we don’t know anything about it; and there are robots in the mix as well. ?? In a 21 minute event, Elon Musk laid out his vision of an autonomous, X10 utilised, X10 safer, cheaper, congestion-solver, "comfortable little lounge" future. It included the Cybercab, the Robovan and Optimus robots. Let’s dive in. (but before we do) According to Musk, the Model 3 and Model Y are expected to upgrade to “unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year”. This is the next tangible milestone and will determine if Tesla is indeed moving as planned with its autonomous plans. ??Cybercab - smaller, nicer looking version of the Cybertruck. No wheel, no pedals, What we know: Costs ??are expected to be $0.3-$0.4 per mile, including “taxes and everything”. Benchmark to today, an operating mile for an ICE vehicle is $0.78, and the estimate for an electric car (not taxi) is $0.4-$0.6. So, Cybercab might be less expensive, but probably only if the vehicle indeed does many more miles due to the robotaxi capabilities, and even then would probably match other electric taxi solutions. Sorry, I don’t see the big deal here. Price ?? of a new car will be below $30,000. That is indeed cheaper, and the low CAPEX suggests that Tesla plans to make money off the robotaxi (and computing?) capabilities, and so can “compromise” on the iinitial vehicle price. Production ?? will begin (Musk: “I’m optimistic”) in 2026, before 2027. I wonder where Waymo, Cruise, Wayve and others (Uber) will be by that time ?? Interesting point that escaped most news commentary: Musk talked about the car's computing power ?? and how it might be potentially used during idle time. Not much beyond that, but my bet is that there is a plan to utilise and monetise that computing power. ?? Robovan? - a 20 seater people and packages vehicle. Looks cool and futuristic, but we have nothing other than that. No timetable, costs, capabilities etc. In terms of functionality it is similar to existing solutions by Zoox, WeRide and others, but carrying more people and potentially travelling at higher speeds. ?? Optimus - it’s a robot. It can pour beer, dance, and per Musk will correct everything wrong with humanity. 80% full proof. I’m not sure it wasn't remote controlled, and hats off if it wasn’t. But this is not mobility, so no more commentary on my part here. And with that we close the event and move to pictures:
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Thanks for the insights Barak Sas! Will be fascinating to see if these plans make it to real streets in that timeline ???
Head of Analytics @ Point Sigma | Emmy-nominated Investigative Storyteller
5 个月Love the writing style