I've seen a lot of analyst attempts to size the market for private & enterprise cellular recently. Some look at contracts, some estimate numbers of sites, others forecast revenues or CAPEX. There's some decent baseline input data, such as numbers of CBRS cells deployed, or UK local and shared access spectrum licenses granted (and equivalents in Germany and elsewhere). Larger vendors such as Nokia release sales figures, and GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) compiles a dataset and published regular figures. To my mind, there are multiple challenges here: - Does it make sense to have an arbitrary lower cutoff (maybe $100k) for private network capex? Given the growth of low-cost and cloud-based (sometimes opex-only) private networks, that makes little sense except maybe for vendors of large $100k+ systems - A private network can be a single small cell for a lab or private jet, or can cover an entire country’s utility grid. There’s at least 4 orders of magnitude difference. Counting networks doesn’t really make sense. Maybe area covered, cells, or SIMs/eSIMs connected would be better? - Some private networks are temporary, eg 5G networks deployed for broadcast at events for a week, then torn down. (That also applies to spectrum licences issued / revoked). Construction, military and others may exist for short periods too. - How should we count multi-site networks, for instance if a retailer deploys 1000 stores with 1-2 small cells each? This could be a major skew factor (uup or down) in the next few years - Do we include local FWA broadband networks as "private"? What if they're run by local authorities or enterprises, rather than normal service providers & WISPs? - Do we count the 1000s of legacy 2G / 3G private networks in markets like UK, Netherlands & Japan? Private cellular isn't new - I saw my first network & GSM small cell in 2001. - How do we deal with #privatenetworks just used for neutral host purposes, not true enterprise / site coverage? - Do we count decentralised #privatewireless deployments individually per-user, or collectively per-system? I don't believe in the #DeWi / #DePin business models, but some actual cells exist - China has 1000s of semi-private #5G networks using MNO spectrum, but with a split architecture for local control. Should they be counted? - I think we may see "free 5G hotspots" using unlicensed spectrum in future, in a similar fashion to #WiFi today. There could be millions, potentially. Bottom line: counting #privatewireless networks & forecasting the market growth is a minefield. Different observers will want different data points and definitions. The chart below is my first-pass estimate of segmenting small/medium (eg warehouse, factory) deployments vs. large (airport, offshore windfarm, major mine) networks. I'm excluding China, 2G/3G and very small 1-cell networks in labs / on planes / military backpacks / homes. I'm also discounting huge numbers of neutral hosts or "chain" deployments. Thoughts?
Just a suggestion to consider $/sqft as baseline for comparison. Counting on nr. of users or sims or temporary doesn’t matter due to technical flexibility in SDN within PWN. Single AP from various platforms can support anywhere from 100~200 users and in some cases double too if spectrum is available. Edge server or cloud based core is SDN capabilities and load distribution based on clients needs. So it comes down to coverage area thus $/sqft or €/sqm. Yes, private network isn’t new but access to masses and ease of adoption at challenging settings were not possible before. There was a need but only until now it’s become possible to shrink complex architecture to spin offs in virtualized environments. One don’t need to be expertise in wireless to be able to manage and operate Private Network. Private Networks will grow faster due to its easy to adapt but more importantly it’s solving other issues and challenges which business can’t solve and connectivity enables new ways for business to grow.
Not sure about the Free 5G hotspots, but the pump of Helium’s MOBILE crypto and the recent launch of $250 indoor cells might propel a lot of new hybrid models — I wonder when that same tech is going to be standard in every Wifi router…. That might complicate the analysis.
Dean, this is one of the reasons why I think it is helpful to apply the definitions used for ‘private’, ‘club’ and ‘common’ goods by economists based on rivalry and exclusion from spectrum access over a geographic area. In my view WiFi has always been a ‘club’ good since spectrum access is facilitated by common technologies and standards. Cellular is a ‘private’ good unless the administration has made overly licences available.
Dean Bubley I agree with one aspect. The way the PNs are counted and presented is not harmonized. I think the way to do it properly would be a list based on MNC (Mobile Network Code) and MCC codes, which formally must be allocated to each separate network. In that case, 1000 separate shops broadcasting the same MNC+MCC will be one network. It makes sense as MNOs also have thousands of NodeB and are counted as ONE NETWORK. The other aspect is how to allocate 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G networks. Are those private in a sense or not if the 3GPP standard defined 5G as a PN? Again. If the PN uses only 4G but with separate MNC+MCC then it shall be a PN. So, I think MNC+MCC should be a good indexing method. What do you think about that idea?
When ever there is a new business starting, there are questions like what is the market size, how market is measured, what abbreviations are used. These questions might sound academic or irrelevant but they are actually very important from the business ecosystem perspective. We need to be able to compare different technological choices, different companies etc using some what standardized measures/language. This is important for the investment community but also for the private network customers and OEMs developing solutions. In the beginning of new business it is more a gut feeling that matters, try something, make changes and keep trying. When the market is starting to grow, business decisions should be based on data and that data needs to come from different sources and be based same definitions. In private network business we need to fix basic business metrics during 2024.
How do you view the typical MNO model with APN based logical private networks? Also been around for long, and it seems to be the preferred way to keep on doing it for MNOs. I'm now seeing these types of trials in enterprise environment, where laptops and other IT equipment gets a SIM card for various reasons. The APN approach is in many cases competing with stand-alone private networks and often drive dedicated RAN sales, so somehow I believe they should be counted in.
We all seek forecasts that best align with our business objectives when crafting a sales pitch deck. Bottom line reflection perfectly captures this essence. As the number of variables to size the private & enterprise cellular market increase, becoming a more complex system, perhaps the solution is to evolve to more encompassing and comprehensive metrics. I wonder if we cannot leverage gen-AI to develop multidimensional, data-centric metrics. I'm not there yet in my personal AI learning journey. I'll keep this interesting topic in mind. For now, I look forward to seeing what insightful ideas are shared on this thread.
You raise a lot of good questions. What is actually NPN or future P5G/E5G? Should IoT and fleet management be included? And there are some major differences in the architecture, as well, as seen in the picture (depending on company size you might not want to run a complete network). Ref: R&S
We need a global network atlas of all types of telecom technologies, who wants to fund it?
If people want to discuss private wireless the me, I’ll be covering it at this week’s Indoor Wireless Stakeholder Workahop in London, and I’ll also be moderating a webinar panel with Celona on Jan 25th Details for the webinar are here: https://www.celona.io/webinar-why-tech-leaders-must-consider-private-wireless