Background Google launched a preview of their Search With Generative AI. More here: https://bit.ly/3I6DEsr Key Take Away I expect some traffic to move from organic results towards an AI-generated answer (much like answer box already does), but I expect SEO traffic overall to stay flat or down slightly, but not down significantly. Deeper Analysis A key question is how this will affect traffic to publishers. Here are my thoughts. * Total searches on Google are likely flat or growing (Google stopped reporting on this, but it's likely that search overall is flat or growing, not decreasing) * Generative AI in search means that part of the search result may get the answer from the Generative AI module and not the organic publisher area * There are three places a user can click in Google search 1. Organic results 2. Ads 3. Google Products (maps, youtube, people also ask, answer box) * Google has for many years been pushing clicks away from organic results and toward ads * You'll see from the attached screenshot of 3 example queries that today most of the page real estate goes to ads and Google modules, not to organic results 1. Organic results (green) 2. Ads (orange) 3. Google Products (blue) * With Google's Search With Generative AI, some clicks will inevitably move to that module and away from organic results * However, overall, I expect this to be a more incremental change for organic results vs. a dramatic change Shout out to Mada Seghete Alex Bauer who created a visual similar that inspired this graphic.
Google add links to publishers in the generated answers. And the only difference between this and previous featured snippets feature in SERPs is the conversational feature. People thought featured snippets will kill organic traffic to websites, but they didn't. These zero-click SERP features will most probably only serve searchers looking for quick answers. For detailed knowledge, organic pages will still serve their purpose. So the principle is still the same -- create very valuable content (like you've done so far) -- format your H2s as long-tail questions that imitate what a human will ask -- write titles that promises more information
Question: On the article you shared, it shows that along with the AI-generated response, Google will also add some URLs as a reference. Do you think people will still click in those? This is the part I'm most curious about, but I think only time will tell.
I think the big question for me is does AI erode Google's GI Joe death grip on search? Can Bing rise? What about Yahoo? What about Yellow Pages? Can these smaller search engines carve away at Google's market dominance? And can content tools like TikTok pull even more volume into their platform as they begin adding LLM models into their search? My sense is how and where people search for certain things will change a lot in the next 2 years. Thoughts?
May I use your graphic?
SEO is about to change forever, but so will Google's monetization
Looking at this should make Google leaders hide their face in shame for their greed. Innovation that actually cares for the user experience will come. Generative AI just may be the spark for capital risk to get there. Fortunately, Google results have become the Internet Explorer of 2020’s.
My biggest concern here is the SERPS that Generative AI are going to dominate initially are likely going to be highly informational intent which also happen to garner the largest volume of links. Fewer naturally occurring backlinks = less effective SEO efforts.
My prediction is that informational keyword searches will mostly be answered directly within the SERP with little traffic going to publishers within the next 12-24 months. Navigational / transaction keywords will have more longevity to them ( for now ) but information Keywords will get hit hard.
Very interesting insights! I think we will see differentiation by device and and location based on how users engage with the new layout and modules.
SVP Design @ Dow Jones | Ex-Google design lead on Retail Ads, Google Search, AI on Google Search, Regulatory Affairs + Compliance | Ex-Yahoo Finance Design Lead | Startup advisor | Teacher
1 年Not trying to be a corporate shill here but your contextualization of what constitutes an "organic" result (text only, highlighted in green) versus something that links to a Google 1st party result ("Google Products" highlighted in blue) in this example is debatable. For example, within your Best Bicycles query, your assertion is that the content labeled as "Google", links to Google 1st party properties. While this is true in some areas (ex: the YouTube links) this is not true for the product cards below, which do not link to Google first party sites, but are labeled as such in this graphic. The same can be argued for the "People also ask..." which also resolve to 3rd party sites in this query (at least how I see it), not Google first party results.