I was long the 10y Treasury yesterday before the sell-off. I entered a long on Sep 25 @ 3.10, positioning defensively both in Europe and in the USA. You can read a previous post about the European strategy and how it benefited from the ITA spread blow out – I exited that on Sep 28. I also had a bullish trade elsewhere (Asia Pacific, cannot be more specific as I still have that on). Thus, portfolio was overall balanced. My exit target for the long 10y Tsy was 3.02. I missed that by half a bp on Sep 28. For me directional positions, once in the money, are lottery tickets for the strategy to run. The strategy did not run, it reversed. When that happens, my objective is to exit without giving back all ground won. I exited the 10y long yesterday before 9AM. I was not positioned for the USA sell-off, but I was safe. Market opened in Asia yesterday night. I made 30% of the P&L I would have made with a perfectly timed naked short in the USA. Always hedge yourself against yourself.
“Always hedge yourself against yourself” That’s wisdom!
Thanks for sharing Stefania. Provides good insights on your process. :)
Appreciate your continuous transparency and honesty...trading is about process, sizing and optimization as much as getting it right
#2- Accelerated CTA selling of 10yr UST futures (TY) The recent surge in 10y UST yields is likely to have been influenced by systematic trend-following trading, in addition to the fundamentals (an easing of Italian anxiety, strong economic indicators, higher crude oil, a hawkish Fed). According to Nomura Tokyo’s estimates, CTAs continued to sell TY futures, with short positions ballooning. We calculate that as long as the 10yr UST yield remains at 3.08% or above, CTAs will continue to build their bearish stance on UST 10yr futures.
Brilliant move.?
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6 年Cheers to you for honesty and introspection. Well done!